New Study: How Long can a Person Live; will Kane Tanaka Beat the Record?

The world’s centenarian population is projected to grow eightfold by the year 2050 and projections suggest there will be 3.7 million centenarians across the globe in 2050.Show more

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https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol44/52/44-52.pdf
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/21/worlds-centenarian-population-projected-to-grow-eightfold-by-2050/
https://www.supercentenarians.org/

The rise of centenarians is unquestioned, but there are far fewer "super-centenarians," that is to say people who live to age 110 and beyond. The oldest living person, Jeanne Calment of France, was 122 and xxx days when she died in 1997. At present the world's oldest person is 118-year-old Kane Tanaka of Japan. Such extreme longevity, according to new research by the University of Washington, likely will continue to rise slowly, and by the end of this century estimates show that a lifespan of 125 years, or even 130 years, is indeed possible. Michael Pearce of the University of Washington said "People are fascinated by the extremes of humanity, whether it's going to the moon, how fast someone can run in the Olympics, or even how long someone can live. With this work, we quantify how likely we believe it is that some individual will reach various extreme ages this century."
Pearce and Adrian Raftery, a professor of sociology and of statistics at the University of Washington, took a different approach. They asked what the longest individual human lifespan could be anywhere in the world by the year 2,100. Using Bayesian statistics, a common tool in modern statistics, the researchers estimated that the world record of 122 years almost certainly will be broken, with a strong likelihood of at least one person living to anywhere between 125 and 132 years.
To calculate the probability of living past 110 - and to what age - Raftery and Pearce turned to the most recent copy of the International Database on Longevity, created by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. That database tracks supercentenarians from 10 European countries, plus Canada, Japan and the United States. The team created projections for the maximum reported age at death in all 13 countries from 2020 through to 2100.
Key findings were:
• Researchers estimated near 100% probability that the current record of maximum reported age at death of 122 years, 164 days - will be broken
• The likelihood remains strong of a person living to 124 years old (with a 99% probability) and even to 127 years old (with a 68% probability)
• An even longer lifespan is possible but much less likely, with a 13% probability of someone living to age 130
• It is "extremely unlikely" that someone would live to 135 in this century.
As it is, supercentenarians are outliers, and the likelihood of breaking the current age record increases only if the number of supercentenarians grows significantly. That's not impossible when you consider improvements in lifestyle improvements, medical advances in technology and healthcare, and also in the specific field of longevity.

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