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Boxing Day Engels Air Base Strike Analysis
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Supposedly, this Ukraine struck Engels Air Base in Russia with another drone. Russian Telegram claims that 5 Tu-95 and bombers were heavily damaged, 2 were lightly damaged and the strike resulted in several ground crew casualties.
I am not sure if this is true and satellite coverage has been hampered by clouds. However, if it is true than Russia needs to do one of 3 things:
#1. Step of their air defense game.
#2. Rebase their forces out of range of Ukrainian drones.
Both of these choices have associated costs. Rebasing will protect these assets, but it takes a lot of effort to move squadrons of aircraft -especially maintenance heavy bombers.
Protecting these bases with air defense assets will shrink the pool of air defense assets available at the borders of Ukraine.
Dilemmas not problems.
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References and Rights:
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1607346936301993985
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/av-orbat.htm
https://ourairports.com/airports/RU-8602/weather.html
https://news.yahoo.com/satellite-images-russian-airbase-engels-144156843.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/26/world/europe/russia-drone-attack-ukraine.html
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/ru/engels
By RAF - Photo http://www.defenceimagery.mod.uk/fotoweb/fwbin/download.dll/45153802.jpgMetadata source: http://www.defenceimagery.mod.uk/fotoweb/fwbin/fotoweb_isapi.dll/ArchiveAgent/5042/Search?FileInfo=1&MetaData=1&Search=45158140.jpg, OGL v1.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=36739848
By Alex Beltyukov - http://russianplanes.net/id166426, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=42174662
By Bernhard Gröhl - Own work, CC BY 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1175181
https://nationalfoam.com/foam-concentrates/afff/aer-o-lite/
By Vitaly V. Kuzmin - http://vitalykuzmin.net/?q=node/521, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=29468421
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