Macron at risk of early election chaos in 2023 as French leader lacks clear mandate

Macron at risk of early election chaos in 2023 as French leader lacks clear mandate

Emmanuel Macron still does not have a majority in the Chambers.

Emmanuel Macron could face early parliamentary elections next year as he lacks a majority under his Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne.The French President was forced to resort to a law to effectively impose the application of his government's budget in Parliament in late October. By committing the "government's responsibility" to the whole hemicycle, article 49.3 of the Constitution, adopted by the Government, allowed for the adoption of the budget law without a vote by the French Parliament.
The Government nonetheless faced more than 10 no-confidence motions in nine weeks during the process, as provided by the use of article 49.3.
The opposition lost all of them, guaranteeing Mr Macron's equipe to stay put in power.
But as the French leader still does not have a majority in the Chambers, he is at risk of early parliamentary election when parliament is set to vote on his government's pension reforms.

Without an absolute majority, and with an insufficient relative majority, Macron sees his room for manoeuvre as extremely limited

Under these conditions, Macron's action in France could be paralysed.

On the domestic front, it would mean the halt of reforms and most of the government's measures.

On the European front, the President of the Republic has broad powers, but there would still be a destabilising effect on the whole of the EU.

The French President would have one last weapon to break the stalemate: the dissolution of the National Assembly and early elections.

The last precedent is that of 1997. Confronted with the street's resistance to his reforms, the then president Jacques Chirac dissolved the National Assembly.
It was a risky bet. After the victory of the Socialist Party and its leftist allies, Chirac was forced into five years of cohabitation with Lionel Jospin in Matignon.

Back in September, Mujtaba Rahman, head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice, said President Macron might eventually be presented with the hard choice between calling a snap election or accepting to be a "lame duck" for the remainder of his second term.

Writing for Politico, Mr Rahman also warned "street marches and strikes now seem likely and will soon escalate, with mounting clamour for higher wages across the board and increased state action against high food and fuel prices".

He added: "Although, ideologically, the centre right is broadly in favour of what Macron proposes, tactically, many Les Républicains deputies fear that their party’s election prospects would implode if they assist Macron with such unpopular reforms.

"Les Républicains has therefore made clear that the government shouldn’t count on continuing support this fall, a position that’s likely to be reinforced by the election of the party’s new national leader in early December.

"Front-runner Eric Ciotti, a 61 year-old deputy from Nice, is the leader of the hard-right, Macron-detesting wing of the party.

But even moderate center-right deputies, like Ciotti’s pro-European rival Aurélien Pradié, fear that maintaining support for the Macron-Borne government will destroy the once dominant but now much-weakened party’s chances of winning the Elysée in the 2027 presidential election.

"The government will almost certainly have to resort to its emergency powers, under Article 49, clause 3 of the Constitution, to push through its 2023 budget without a vote in December.