Monkeypox - Why we DON'T know what will happen yet

We are currently seeing an unprecedented monkeypox outbreak. There's a lot of things we know about the monkeypox virus. It's not a new virus. It was first discovered in 1958 in lab monkeys, hence the name Monkeypox. And it was first detected in humans in 1970. However, even though we know a lot, we definitely can’t say with certainty what the eventual outcome of the current outbreak will be. In this video, Dr Susan Oliver goes back to the science to explain why we don’t know yet.

Since I recorded this video, Dr John Campbell has released a rather bizarre video that seems to be suggesting that the Wuhan Institute of Virology may have had a role in the current monkeypox outbreak (although he doesn't specifically say this - just plants the seed for conspiracy theorists to grow). In this video, I cover the many possible reasons why we are seeing unprecedented spread of monkeypox. Needless to say, a lab leak isn't one of them.

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Chapters:

0:00 Introduction
1:52 Possible reasons for increased monkeypox transmission
2:50 Has monkeypox virus mutated?
3:40 Myxomatosis virus mutation
4:31 Evidence for monkeypox virus mutation
6:30 Population differences from previous outbreaks
7:55 Monkeypox waning immunity
9:15 Smallpox vaccine protection
11:35 New monkeypox animal reservoir?
12:07 Summary

Links to data:

Myxomatosis in Australia and Europe: A model for emerging infectious diseases
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354212000319

Multi-country outbreak of Monkeypox virus: genetic divergence and first signs of microevolution
https://virological.org/t/multi-country-outbreak-of-monkeypox-virus-genetic-divergence-and-first-signs-of-microevolution/806

Immunity from Smallpox Vaccine Persists for Decades: A Longitudinal Study
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0002934308008401

The changing epidemiology of human monkeypox—A potential threat? A systematic review
https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141