What The Media Got Wrong (And Right) About The Midterms | Dave Weigel | TMR

Sam and Emma host Dave Weigel, author of the “Americana” newsletter at Semafor, to discuss the state of play less than 2 weeks out from the midterm elections. Dave Weigel dives right into the disconnect between polling and the actual state of democratic candidates heading into the midterms, exploring how the last few weeks have slowly revealed failures in the democratic messaging leading up to November. Stepping back, Dave, Emma, and Sam explore the particular failures of letting Republicans pretend the future of abortion isn’t actually at risk (when Roe was actually overturned) while also allowing them to fearmonger around crime (when no major police departments were actually defunded). Parsing through the house races in New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Dave looks at where and against whom the GOP was able to successfully center crime, before they shift the conversation to the Democrats’ failure to consistently hit on any of their inflation talking points. Wrapping up the interview, Dave walks through the Democratic House seats that are seriously endangered, and why beyond losing the House, they’re likely to drop the Senate as well.

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It is a pleasure to welcome back to the program Dave Weigel. Last time you were with us Dave and by us I mean of course Emma and I thank you you were working for the Washington Post and now you're working for this organization called semaphore. What's that all about? Is this the Illuminati? I mean come on Dave. well they're all the Illuminati. It's all the media. We have the same meeting every Tuesday at noon. Just the All Hands to figure out the narrative this week. But no , it's a startup with a bunch of journalists who have worked at other places and thought okay there's some issues here where people don't trust the media. not just for Republicans ginning it up. but for hey this coverage is awful. and we kind of have a different sort of format where we break down like our analysis from the reporting. which has been pretty fun. we're very Scoops focused. I mean I've been the last couple weeks doing the same thing I've been doing for like a decade which is just going to places talking to candidates writing stories. so I have more that is coming but it is good and like the post is fine everyone everyone should keep reading it. we're just trying to try something new. but I have found there're Republicans who didn't want to talk to me at the post who will talk to me now. Which I feel is unfair to the post but yeah good. for me right well I do enjoy the little David's view thing at the end of I mean I I like that I like the explicitness. it gives you guys license to be explicit about your perspective on this. all right well let's start with I mean you brought it up let's start with this this whole question of like the The Narrative that you guys get together with on Tuesdays to determine as a. and there's like a lot of controversy around this nate cohn assessment piece I guess that was a function of four house races. which ostensibly has gone from showing that Democrats are in trouble to showing that Democrats have some hope. he points out Pennsylvania's eighth and Kansas is third New Mexico's second in Nevada's first. Broadly speaking, let's just start with this and then we can go into this. where are we relative to the polls because the narrative has been Democrats are in increasingly bad shape. but the polls don't seem to reflect that in terms of generic polls. or maybe you know specific polls around the country.