Why Japan Is Gearing Up for Possible War With China? #japanmilitary #chinamilitary

Why Japan Is Gearing Up for Possible War With China? The threat of Chinese aggression is producing a quiet revolution in Tokyo’s statecraft — and officials are pushing the nation to get ready for a fight. If China were to attack Taiwan, it wouldn’t just have to face a hostile superpower. It would also likely have to confront its longstanding regional rival, Japan. For centuries, Japan and China have vied for hegemony in East Asia; at times, they have threatened each other’s survival. Today, as I found from three days of meetings with Japanese officials and analysts in Tokyo, the threat of Chinese aggression is producing a quiet revolution in Japanese statecraft — and pushing the nation to get ready for a fight.

For the US, China is a dangerous but distant challenge. For Japan, China is the existential danger next door. Years before American leaders were proclaiming the return of great-power rivalry, Japanese officials were warning that Beijing was up to no good. As China’s capabilities become more formidable and its conduct in the Taiwan Strait more menacing, Tokyo’s concerns grew more acute.

The weather may have been beautiful when I visited the capital, but there is very much a sense that storms are on the horizon. “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow,” warned Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in June. The same month, some 90% of the Japanese public believed the country should prepare for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. That was before Chinese leader Xi Jinping ratcheted tensions by firing ballistic missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.

In Tokyo, as in Washington, opinions differ regarding when the risk of war will be greatest, and even whether Xi would hazard everything in a high-stakes military gamble. Some officials told me that Xi’s recent personnel reforms — which included placing a veteran of China’s last foreign conflict, against Vietnam in 1979, and a former commander of Chinese military forces opposite Taiwan in the two top spots on the Central Military Commission — amount to a creation of a “war council.” Others counter that the People’s Liberation Army will lack key capabilities necessary to invade Taiwan, such as sufficient amphibious landing craft, for years to come.

But there is little debate the country must brace for trouble, because China taking Taiwan by force would be disastrous for Japan.

If Taiwan fell, the islands at the far southwestern end of the Japanese archipelago might become indefensible. China could constrict Japan’s vital trade routes, increase the pressure around the disputed Senkaku Islands, and otherwise coerce its historic rival.

This is why the Tokyo government has stated — as strongly as it can, given Japan’s post-1945 aversion to the use of force — that it would not stand by while Taiwan was subjugated. Already a serious regional military power, Japan is moving rapidly to strengthen its capabilities for deterrence and defense.

なぜ日本は中国との戦争の可能性に備えているのか?中国の侵略の脅威は、東京の政治体制に静かな革命をもたらしている。中国が台湾を攻撃したとしても、敵対する超大国に直面する必要はありません。また、長年の地域的ライバルである日本と対峙しなければならない可能性もある。何世紀にもわたって、日本と中国は東アジアで覇権を争ってきました。時々、彼らはお互いの生存を脅かしました。今日、東京での日本の政府関係者やアナリストとの 3 日間の会合から分かったように、中国の侵略の脅威は、日本の国政に静かな革命をもたらしており、日本に戦いの準備を迫っている。

米国にとって、中国は危険だが遠い挑戦だ。日本にとって、中国は隣国の存亡の危機だ。アメリカの指導者たちが大国間競争の復活を宣言する何年も前に、日本の当局者は北京が悪いことを企んでいると警告していた。中国の能力がますます恐るべきものになり、台湾海峡での中国の行動がより威嚇的になるにつれて、東京の懸念はより深刻になった。

私が首都を訪れたときは天気が良かったかもしれませんが、嵐が近づいているという感覚が非常に強いです. 「今日のウクライナは明日の東アジアになるかもしれない」と岸田文夫首相は6月に警告した。同じ月、日本国民の約 90% が、日本は中国の台湾侵攻に備える必要があると考えていました。それは、ナンシー・ペロシ下院議長が台北を訪問した後、中国の習近平国家主席が日本の排他的経済水域に弾道ミサイルを発射して緊張を高める前のことでした。

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