"Kherson - hold it, can't be left behind"

Kherson - hold it, can't be left behindShow more

Military expert Boris Rozhin on the defense of Kherson, storming Avdeevka, and the possibility of an offensive by Belarus especially for Voenkor Kotenok Z @voenkorKotenok channel:

- Which option awaits Kherson - Stalingrad or Izyum?

- At the current stage, there is conflicting information from this direction. If a political decision is made to withdraw from the right bank of the Dnieper, of course, there will be no Stalingrad there. This may be caused, among other things, by the threat of a dirty nuclear bomb and the undermining of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric plant.

Should a political decision be made to hold Kherson and the bridgehead on the Right Bank, one can expect prolonged intense fighting in this direction.

Despite the obvious problems with logistics and the threat of the use of WMD, the issue of holding Kherson is still more political than military.

It is worth recalling that Izyum was abandoned for purely military reasons after the AFU breakthrough at Balakleya and the threat of encirclement of the Izyum grouping of the RF Armed Forces, which forced the retreat behind Oskol to avoid a pit.

The Foreign Legion is being brought near Svatovo

- Why is the enemy stalling near Svatovo?

- Our troops strengthened the defense here plus reinforcements, which allowed us to stabilize the front after withdrawal from the line on the river Oskol. In addition, counterstrokes in the area of Torsky and Terny have confused the enemy's plans to advance north of Kremenna.

The last attempts of the enemy to attack in the direction of Svatovo were unsuccessful. The AFU did not succeed in breaking through to Svatovo, although it was planned to take Svatovo as early as 17 October.

Nevertheless, the enemy continues to accumulate forces in this direction and has not abandoned its offensive plans concerning both Svatovo and Kreminna. To reinforce these plans, the presence of foreign mercenaries in this section of the front line is increasing.

There will no longer be a frontal assault on Avdiivka

- Why are we still unable to take the Avdiivka fortification and cut off the enemy's Ugledar bulge?

- The reasons are trivial - the enemy has strong fortifications here, while we do not have enough forces in this direction.

In both cases, a frontal assault on the Avdiivka and Ugledar fortifications does not promise anything substantial to our troops but rather distracts them from more promising areas.

The offensive near Peski and Pervomayskoye, as well as the fighting for Marinka, clearly show that it is impossible to achieve any rapid advances in the current grouping here, as well as to achieve at this stage a real operational encirclement of the Ugledar and Avdiivka groupings of the AFU. Only a slow repulsion of the enemy with the grinding of its positions with artillery.

No change so far in the Belorussian direction

- Commander of the AFU Ground Forces Syrsky announced the threat of invasion by the RF Armed Forces from Belarus. To what extent are the fears of the enemy justified? Can we? And is it necessary?

- According to official data, some 9,000 Russian troops are currently deployed in Belarus, not only near the border with Ukraine but also in northwestern Belarus near the borders with Lithuania and Poland, where there is an accumulation of groups of NATO countries that pose a threat to Belarus.

An attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus requires a larger grouping, which at the current stage is not formed there. This does not mean that no such grouping will be formed on the territory of Belarus, but at the current stage, the probability of a direct Russian offensive against Kiev from Belarus is not very high.

However, the war will go on for a long time, and we may yet see this option.

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