Lab leak likelu, US Senate

Senate report on viral origins

the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 that resulted in the COVID-19 pandemic was most likely the result of a research-related incident

https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/report_an_analysis_of_the_origins_of_covid-19_102722.pdf

Dec. 20, 2019 to Jan. 18, 2020

Searches for flu-like symptoms

Cases probably started Mid October, 2019

Analysis of Natural Zoonotic Origins Hypothesis

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)

Lack of intermediate bats to humans

Virus likely needed to circulate in an intermediate host

An animal virus must evolve to gain human infecting potential

Closest virus is in horseshoe bats residing in Southern China or Southeast Asia

Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak Differs from Previous Natural Zoonotic Spill overs

Lack of dead ends spill over events, no epidemiological train in animals of humans

Influenza

Infected poultry and birds always found

H7N9 (2019) multiple independent introductions across multiple locations

Geographically disparate, independent spill overs of H7N9

Avian Influenza (2019)
Had circulated in bird populations,

time and several provinces in China before the first known human infections

SARS epidemic

At least five independent spill overs of the SARS virus into humans

Live animal markets followed by human to human

E.g. Guangdong Province, November 2002 to January 2003

SARS, later on in 2003 – 2004

Additional independent subsequent spill over infections in humans

Civets identified within 6 months

Early SARS viral samples from humans contained genetic mutations that reflected prior circulation and adaptation in palm civets

In total contrast

Chinese government, asserted that the COVID-19 originated from a natural zoonotic transmission occurring at the Huanan market

Geo-temporal spread of COVID-19 in China, December 31, 2019 to February 11, 2020

Earliest identified SARS-CoV-2 well-adapted for human-to-human transmission

Early SARS-CoV-2 variants had little genetic diversity, 2 nucleotides out of 29,900

(Adenine, Cytosine, Guanine, Uracil)

No evidence of previous intermediate host circulation

Genetic similarity between the environmental samples and human viral samples,

supports the likelihood that the virus found at the Huanan Seafood Market was shed by humans

Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee,

to address pandemic preparedness and response programs

Interim report, to examine the two prevailing theories of origin

Last fifteen months

Reviewed several hundred scientific studies,

interviewed several dozen subject matter experts,

analyzed previous reports and studies.

The lack of transparency and collaboration from government and public health officials in the People’s Republic of China with respect to the origins of SARS-CoV-2 prevents reaching a more definitive conclusion.

I hope this report will guide the World Health Organization and other international institutions

Introduction

Challenging

Since January 3, 2020,

People’s Republic of China (PRC) have prohibited sharing or publishing any information on SARS-CoV-2 without state review and approval.

Establishing timeline, is difficult

Mid October, 2019