US Recession: Will Stocks Crash?

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In this video, I discuss the relationship between US recessions and the stock market.

By the time that the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) has announced the beginning and end of a recession, the stock market has already priced in the news months before (and usually already bottomed). Like Wayne Gretzky, the stock market tries to skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has already been.

The US has probably been in recession since late 2021 or early 2022. How quickly we exit this recession and experience a stock market and Bitcoin rebound really depends on the Fed.

The Fed will almost certainly reverse course and turn the money printers back on by September 2022 at the latest. In the meantime, expect extreme volatility and more risk asset sell-offs.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

US economy shrank in Q1 2022:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/29/economy/gdp-first-quarter-final/index.html
https://www.bea.gov/#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,second%22%20estimate%20released%20in%20May.

Recessions:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

NBER and business cycle dating:
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating

2008 recession announcement:
https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/

2001 recession announcement:
https://money.cnn.com/2001/11/26/economy/recession/

2020 recession announcement:
https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021#:~:text=The%20committee%20has%20determined%20that,shortest%20US%20recession%20on%20record.

List of US recessions:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

ISM PMI table:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/

US Headed For A Hard Landing?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2abInJkLPrM&ab_channel=TraderUniversity

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#stockmarketcrash
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