Fed About To Really Blow Things Up

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In this video, I discuss how Jerome Powell's concern for his legacy as an inflation fighter could lead to much tighter monetary policy-- and a bigger blow-up in risk assets-- than previously expected.

Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.

CPI inflation hits 9.1%:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-13/us-inflation-accelerates-to-9-1-once-again-exceeding-forecasts

CPI probably actually 13% or more:
https://twitter.com/dan_pantera/status/1547222868274155520

High probability of 100 bps hike in July 2022:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

US Treasury interest rates:
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202207

Powell blinked before:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/fed-blink-resets-2019-with-powell-s-new-dovish-tone-eco-week

September 2019 repo blow-up:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2019_events_in_the_U.S._repo_market

Powell does not want to become another Arthur Burns:
https://twitter.com/Halsrethink/status/1546913164347990020
https://twitter.com/Halsrethink/status/1546910632586498050

Arthur Burns:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_F._Burns

Stephen Roach on Burns:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ghost-of-arthur-burns-haunts-a-complacent-federal-reserve-thats-pouring-fuel-on-the-fires-of-inflation-11621971073

Watch the Fed's balance sheet:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

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#fed
#stockmarketcrash
#bitcoin

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