Military expert Boris Rozhin about the defense of Kherson

"Military expert Boris Rozhin about the defense of Kherson, the assault on Avdiivka and the possibility of an offensive from Belarus, especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Z @voenkorKotenok channel:

- What option awaits Kherson - Stalingrad or Izyum?

- At the current stage, conflicting information is coming from this direction. If a political decision is made to withdraw from the right bank of the Dnieper, then, of course, there will be no Stalingrad there. This can be caused, among other things, by the threat of a dirty nuclear bomb and the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.

If a political decision is made to hold Kherson and the bridgehead on the Right Bank, then we can expect long-term intense fighting in this direction.

Despite the obvious problems with logistics and the threat of using weapons of mass destruction, the issue of keeping Kherson is still more political than military.

It is worth recalling that Izyum was abandoned purely for military reasons after the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Balakleya and the threat of encirclement of the Izyum grouping of the RF Armed Forces, which forced them to organize a retreat beyond Oskol to avoid the boiler.

"Foreign Legion" being transported near Svatovo

- Why is the enemy slipping near Svatovo?

- Our troops have strengthened the defense here, plus reinforcements have been transferred here, which allowed us to somewhat stabilize the front after retreating from the line on the Oskol River. In addition, counterattacks in the area of ​​Torskoy and Terna confused the enemy's plans to advance north of Kremennaya.

The last attempts of enemy attacks in the direction of Svatovo were unsuccessful. The Armed Forces of Ukraine did not succeed in breaking through to Svatovo, although according to the plans, Svatovo should have been taken on October 17th.

Nevertheless, the enemy continues to accumulate forces in this direction, not abandoning offensive plans both in relation to Svatovo and Kremennaya. To reinforce these plans, the presence of foreign mercenaries is increasing in this sector of the front line.

There will be no more frontal assault on Avdiivka

- Why can't we still take the Avdeevsky fortified area and cut off the Ugledar ledge of the enemy?

- The reasons are trivial - the enemy has strong fortifications here, and we do not have enough forces in this direction.

In both cases, the frontal assault on the Avdeevsky and Ugledarsky fortified areas does not promise anything significant to our troops, rather, it only distracts from more promising directions.

The offensive in the area of ​​Pesok and Pervomaisky, as well as the battles for Maryinka, clearly show that it is impossible to achieve any rapid advances in the current grouping here, as well as to achieve a real operational encirclement of the Ugledar and Avdiivka groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the current stage. Only the slow pushing back of the enemy with the grinding of his positions by artillery.

So far, no changes in the Belarusian direction

- Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky announced the threat of an invasion of the RF Armed Forces from Belarus. To what extent are the fears of the enemy justified? Can? And is it necessary?

- At the moment, according to official data, about 9,000 Russian troops are deployed in Belarus, not only near the border with Ukraine, but also in northwestern Belarus near the borders with Lithuania and Poland, where there is an accumulation of groups of NATO countries that pose a threat to Belarus.

For an attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, a larger grouping is needed, which at the current stage has not been formed there. This does not mean that such a grouping will not be formed on the territory of Belarus, but at the current stage, the likelihood of a direct attack by the Russian grouping on Kyiv from Belarus is not very high.

However, the war will go on for a long time, and we can still see this option."