Silver at the End of Petro Dollar

Wilson discussed how the direction of equity markets would be partially decided by their interpretation of this move in rates. In one interpretation, equities might rally as lower rates provide a cushion for valuation and potentially a leading signal that the Fed may ease off its policy stance if inflation pressures slow in 2H '22. In another, stocks could probe new lows as falling yields reflect increasing concerns around growth, a dynamic that would be reflected in higher ERPs. And just so there is no confusion, Wilson reiterated that his intermediate term view is that any fall in rates should be interpreted as more of a growth concern rather than as potential relief from the Fed/inflation pressures.
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Based on history, Wilson concludes that "if we are going to end up in a recession (our bear case), it's very likely the PMI would eventually fall to the low 40s." And if one overlays that outcome onto the S&P 500 vs. PMI chart, "it suggests we could reach 3000 late this year