On current situation 18-10-22

TG / Geroman:
The Belarusian Front and Wagner in Artemovsk: about the likelihood of Minsk entering the war, Kyiv’s plans for Kherson and the role of PMCs in operational and strategic planning - military expert Boris Rozhin, especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Z @voenkorKotenok channel:

Belarusians are digging trenches on the border

- What caused the tightening of rhetoric on the part of official Minsk? Is it worth waiting for the entry of Belarusian troops into the NVO zone?

- The rhetoric of Minsk is associated with an increase in the number of provocations by NATO and Ukraine, as well as attempts of terrorist attacks on the territory of Belarus. In fact, a terrorist war is going on against Belarus, supported by NATO countries and Ukraine. Therefore, Lukashenka's rhetoric is more than justified, as are security measures.

At the moment, Belarusian troops are not engaged in assembling a strike force for the invasion of Ukraine and are engaged in defensive measures on the border.

Why did the Armed Forces of Ukraine cling to Artyomovsk

- How significant is the liberation of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and how will this affect the situation at the front?

- The liberation of Artemovsk will break the strategic defensive line (axis) Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Artemovsk-Dzerzhinsk and deprive the Armed Forces of Ukraine of an important road junction.

The story of the “Popasnaya flower” may repeat itself, when the loss of a large logistics center caused a crisis of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in many areas at once. That is why the Armed Forces of Ukraine have clung to Artemovsk so much and are constantly throwing reserves here in order to keep the city, which is of the utmost operational importance.

- It is known that the assault detachments of the "Wagner Group" play a primary role in the liberation of Artemovsk. How significant is the PMC factor within the entire Ukrainian front?

- Wagner PMCs show themselves as highly effective assault units, using their rich experience in participating in local conflicts and trained personnel. This makes it possible to more effectively break into the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and maintain the pace of the offensive, pushing the enemy directly to Artemivsk.

PMCs do not replace the armed forces, but effectively complement them. In the future, efforts should be made to increase coordination of actions and to review the role of PMCs in operational and strategic planning.

Infrastructure strikes need a system

- In Kyiv, they report on the elimination of the consequences of strikes on the energy infrastructure. Should we trust such statements?

- Part of the consequences of strikes may well be eliminated in the medium or long term. And such work is constantly going on.

Even in conditions of obvious damage to infrastructure, there will be a longer-term and systemic effect if such strikes are carried out fairly regularly, which will lead to the fact that some of the objects will be completely destroyed, and some will be brought to a state where repairs will take too long, which will lead to inevitable rolling blackouts on a systemic basis, even without impacts on the infrastructure of operating nuclear power plants.

Russia is ready for fighting in Kherson

— What caused the partial evacuation of the population of the Kherson region? How likely is an attempt to break through the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the city with the imposition of urban battles?

- The evacuation was caused by systemic shelling of cities in the Kherson region of the Russian Federation. Plus, in the event of a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is a high probability of intensifying the fighting for the city, which can lead to heavy casualties among civilians. Therefore, from the point of view of security, it is better to evacuate part of the population in advance for the same reasons that the residents of the DPR were evacuated before the start of the war.