Russian Armed Forces strikes on Ukraine's Energy system on 10-11 October 2022 - @Rybar Analysis

Russian Armed Forces strikes on Ukraine's Energy system on 10-11 October 2022 - @Rybar Analysis⚡️Show more

Following massive missile strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine's energy infrastructure on 10 and 11 October, it is only now that a relatively complete picture of the results of the firing and the extent of damage to certain targets is emerging.

Rybar's team analyzed open-source data, eyewitness reports from the field, NASA's FIRMS fire-fighting map, and information from classified sources. In some cases, the effects of a fire are not so clear and data are lacking. In such cases, the item is marked as 'Requires clarification'.

🔻 Objects hit on 10 October:
1.1. Kiev TPP-5;
1.2. Kiev TPP-6 (presumably a miss);
1.3. Pryvokzalna 110 kV substation (former open switchgear of TETs-3);
1.4. Darnitsa TPP;
2. Tripolskaya TPP.
3. Zhitomir 330/110 kV substation;
4. Khmelnitskaya 330/110 kV substation;
5. Ternopil 330/110 kV substation;
6.1 TS Lvivskaya TETs-1
6.2 Substation Lviv-South 330/220/110 kV;
6.3 Substation Lviv-2 220/110/6kV;
7. Substation 110/35/10kV Zdolbunov TSHK (presumably, clarification needed);
8. Zapadno-Ukrainskaya 750/330kV substation (needs clarification);
9. Burshtynskaya TPP;
10. Krivoy Rog TPP;
11. Prydniprovska TES;
12. Kremenchug 330/154/35/10 kV substation;
13. Substation Konotop 330/110 kV;
14.1 Substation Zalyutino 330/110/35 kV;
14.2 Kharkov CHPP-5;
14.3 Zmievskaya TPP.

🔻 The facilities affected on 11 October:
1. Ladyzhinskaya TPP;
2. 330 kV Lvov-Yuzhnaya substation;
3. Substation 154kV Lviv -2;
4. 330kV Lvov Westerly substation (presumably, needs clarification);
5. Substation Zapadno-Ukrainskaya 750/330kV (needs clarification);
6. Substation Prydniprovskaya 750 kV;
7. Kiev TPP-6 area (presumably a miss);
8. Kiev HPP Vyshgorod;
9. PS "VDGMK" 330/150/35/6 kV Volnogorsk;
10. Pavlogradskaya 330/150/35/6kV substation (needs clarification);
11. Substation Pravoberezhnaya 330kV Zaporozhye (requires clarification).

🔻 Based on the available information, we believe that the most effective strikes were in Lvov, Kharkov, Khmelnytsky and Sumy regions.

▪️ Despite this, power supply has now been restored almost everywhere, but the transmission capacity of the power system has been reduced as a result of the strikes.

▪️ Transformers and autotransformers at 330/110 and 330/150 kV are most likely to have been hit. Substations and thermal power plants managed to reduce both generation and transmission capacity of the power system.

▪️ An indirect indication of the effectiveness of the strikes can be found in the fact that Ukraine has refused to export electricity to the EU and Moldova.

▪️ Emergency schemes are used to bypass damaged parts of the electrical system. The effect of their use creates the illusion of solving problems, but in fact it only postpones them.

🔻 However, it is clear that the damage to the Ukrainian energy system is not enough to fragment it into separate power districts. The stability of the energy system is maintained through forced rolling blackouts of consumers - especially during morning and evening peak hours.

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