The 200-WMA is the Markets' Line in the Sand
(10/12/22) While it may FEEL like we're in a bear market after the declines this year, so far, the data would suggest otherwise: Markets remain in a very bullish trend, long term. Tracing the 200-week moving average since the 2008 financial crisis reveals a steady, upwards track which has not changed up until this point. Yes, markets are now testing the 200-WMA, which would appear to be the line in the sand between a bull market trend and a downturn to the bearish side. Remember, a bear market is not just a 20% price decline. The huge deviation between the market and that long-term moving average requires a bigger diversion just to come back down to that trend line, which is why it feels so painful when it happens. In order for markets to fall into bear territory, such a reversion must be proven by markets trending south. That's certainly possible with inflation and slowing economic growth. But markets remain in a long-term upwards trend, and this is how the Fed is viewing markets, as well.
Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton
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