What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons? Putin's warnings explained
What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons? Putin's warnings explained
Much depends on how Putin perceives the threat to the Russian state and his rule.
Putin casts the war in Ukraine as an existential battle between Russia and the West, which he says wants to destroy Russia and grab control its vast natural resources.
Putin warned the West he was not bluffing when he said he'd be ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia. Some analysts say Putin is bluffing but Washington is taking Putin seriously.
By claiming 18% of Ukraine as part of Russia, the room for nuclear threats increases as Putin could cast any attack on these territories as an attack on Russia itself.
Russia's nuclear doctrine allows for a nuclear strike after "aggression against the Russian Federation with conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened".
Many Russians live in Ukrainian territory that Putin has proclaimed as Russian, and breaking the post-World War Two nuclear taboo would not necessarily change the tactical situation on the ground.
"He is bluffing right now," said Yuri Fyodorov, a military analyst based in Prague. "But what will happen in a week or a month from now is difficult to say - when he understands the war is lost."
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