When will this Russian Howitzer explode? (2A65 Msta-B Barrel life estimation from shell casings)

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Here is the math:

The shell casing box is:
830mm x 484mm x 270mm.

The Howitzer carriage trail is 2.15 meters.

The average height of a Russian man is 176 cm.

I estimated 1933mm on the boxes so ~2 meters.

I estimated 1.5 box lengths of the pile height, or roughly 1.5 meters.

I estimated the slope at 35 degrees using Coffee Beans as a substitute for shell casings.

When plugged into a triangle that gives a hypotenuse of 2.616 meters.

This means the surface area of the pile is 5.23 square meters.

If the casing width is 578mm x 152mm, then a 152mm shell casing takes up .089 square meters.

Divide 5.23square meters into .089 square meters and you get 58.

Add 10% to cover shells that have fallen over and you get ~64 shells.

Links:

Angle of repose:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angle_of_repose#:~:text=The%20angle%20of%20repose%2C%20or,0%C2%B0%20to%2090%C2%B0.

https://arconpartners.net/products/ammunition/large-caliber/152-mm-round-with-full-variable-charge-and-high-explosive-projectile-he-for-152-mm-gun-howitzer-d-20-and-howitzer-gun-ml-20/

https://kintex.bg/product-4-74

http://www.armaco.bg/en/product/artilery-ammunitions-c15/152mm-he-round-p196#product

Triangle Calculator:
https://www.calculator.net/triangle-calculator.html?vc=&vx=&vy=1.5&va=35&vz=&vb=90&angleunits=d&x=89&y=31

Credits:

Original twitter video:
https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1563941670403579909

Images:
"Black is myfavorite!" by cbgrfx123 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

"File:2A65 Msta-B howitzer (14-11-2019) 06.jpg" by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is licensed under CC BY 4.0.

"File:2A65 Msta-B howitzer (24-10-2017) 03.jpg" by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is licensed under CC BY 4.0.

"File:2A65 Msta-B howitzer (24-10-2017) 01.jpg" by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is licensed under CC BY 4.0.

"File:ParkPatriot2015part6-59.jpg" by Vitaly V. Kuzmin is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

"File:2A65 Msta-B howitzer (14-11-2019) 04.jpg" by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation is licensed under CC BY 4.0.

"Russ, Sayre & Minnie by a pile of coffee bean skins at La Azotea Estate, Antigua, Guatemala, Photo by Char" by ali eminov is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.

"Corn Harvest" by ConanTheLibrarian is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

"Sorted gravel pile from Pleistocene glacial outwash (St. Louisville gravel pits, Licking County, Ohio, USA) 31" by James St. John is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

"Dirt Pile" by jddunn is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

"suburban landscape (parking lot dirt pile)" by r.a. paterson is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

"Empty Casings" by The U.S. Army is licensed under CC BY 2.0.