Midterm Polling Should Give Democrats Hope Against GOP 'Red Wave'

John from San Antonio calls in to give us a polling update on the 2022 midterms. The polls are tightening but John doesn't think all hope is lost for the Democrats.Show more

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First in line 210 who's this where are you calling from? 35 days for the midterm elections in the race for control of the house and the Senate is tightening. On September 20th we had Dave Weigel on the show and he made some factually inaccurate statements. I will tell you. I know Weigel. I know Weigel's been on the show many times so I'll leave it up to you if you want me to talk about these statements. absolutely. Are you kidding? I'm not going to let Weigel skirt through this. okay. I don't have a personal beef with Weigel. I just want the correct facts to come out. There will thank you at the 28-minute Mark you asked why but what's your sense of the opportunities the Democrats have out of holding the house he said it would be very tough. At the 28-minute and 47-second Mark Weigel said Democrats would need to hold every District that they have under the new map under the gerrymander including about half a dozen Trump districts that Trump won. so the statement is factually incorrect. Democrats won 222 seats in the 2020 house elections. and the Biden Trump metric Biden won 224 seats under the old map. and then new map Biden won 226 seats. so the Democrats hold every Biden seat they'll pick up four seats. and then off to win any Trump District. In fact, Democrats can lose up to eight seats that Biden won and still hold the house. I'm not saying that they're going to do that but there were only 16 split-ticket house races in 2020 and solar is out and as polarization grows you're seeing fewer split-ticket winners. So Weigel also said in Florida the Republicans will gain three seats when the truth is that they gain a seat in the census so they'll probably be the favorite to win four seats. while the Democrats will probably lose three seats to Charlie Christ's seat. Stephanie Murphy's old seat now Lawson was forced out of his majority black District to run against Republican Neil Dunn in a plus 11 Trump District. he said that the Democrats would need a pit to pitch a perfect game but the Republicans would only need to hit 200 to win. So he's making an assertion that the base is based on faulty information that he stated earlier most professional journalists take their cues from forecasters who are considered experts. but they've been badly misled in these House races this year. even the two most popular house models have had their numbers drastically changed since the numbers peaked from a republican win a few months ago.