Gleb Bazov: two more mobilizations needed in the coming winter.

GB: "Get ready to be tested again. This time on the Nikopol-Kherson front.

According to various reports. the Ukrainian forces, with larger numbers, are conducting an offensive in the direction of Dutchany, Kherson Oblast of the Russian Federation. Russian Army and Akhmat spetsnaz are resisting the onslaught, with the situation stably difficult—but, nonetheless, stable. (see map below)

There are reports, as always, of reinforcements coming from the east, but the difficulty—as always—is how fast they can get there. The fact that the situation is stable is a positive development, and there is no evidence of loss of control or disorganization on the part of the defendants, They are defending well, and in an organized manner.

However, this pattern of multi-vector probing attacks is consistent with my expectation of the Ukrainian strategy. Having a shorter internal logistics structure and a more cohesive and better defended front line, they will continue to strike from the northern side to the southern front, pulling the Russian reserves first to one, then to another side, in a series of feints and false offensives, with the real strike concealed until the last moment. The short internal logistics network allows the Ukrainian army to conceal its ultimate objective.

I believe—as I have for months, even during the Kupyansk breakthrough—that Ukraine's real offensive objective is in Zaporozhye, with eventually a deep strike at Melitopol or Berdyansk in order to encauldron the Kherson grouping of the Russian army. A deep strike like that seemed inconceivable months ago—now less so.

As much as I believe this to be the Ukrainian objective, I equally believe it will not succeed. The depth of the attack is too far. This 4-5 times the depth of the Kupyansk-Balakleya-Izyum offensive, with its denouement in Krasny Liman (once again, here I am convinced that the heroic defense of Krasny Liman has given the Russian Army just enough time to shore up the Svatovo and Kremennaya lines and that is where the saga that began in Balakleya will end).

However, any delay in successfully countering the multi-vector attacks (all the while protecting the critical Zaporozhye direction) threaten to further undermine the morale (public and military) and will make the eventual victory over Ukraine all that much harder (the likelihood of such victory is not in question). For that reason, reserves must be rushed to the front from within Russia—not from one part of the front to another. The latter is suicide.

A further two (2) waves of mobilization must be declared and conducted over the winter in order for a wide-scale offensive to begin in the spring. The first, initial wave will plug the holes. The latter two (2) will enable victory.

That's it for now. I am incredibly busy at the moment, but I will try with a few maps and more analysis later."