Economic Crisis? Waves Of Mass Layoffs? Stagflation? Starvation? Experts Say All This & More In 2023

the US economy already in a brutal stagflation, US growth will be deeply negative as soon as early 2023
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It was almost exactly one year ago that Goldman took a scalpel to its heretofore euphoric 2022 GDP forecasts, which among other things saw the bank's Q1 and Q2 2022 GDP estimates cut from 5.0% and 4.5% to 4.5% and 4.0% respectively, and forecast full year 2022 GDP would be 4.0% (down from 4.4% previously)

Yet despite the "big" cut, which Goldman attributed to "fiscal drag and slowing consumer spending" the bank still expected brisk mid-single digit growth because the hilariously wrong concept of " excess savings" (alongside ""transitory inflation") would fuel consumption for much of 2022. We disagreed completely, writing the following last October:

Bottom line: we "applaud" Goldman for again predicting that the Fed will achieve its stated goal of pushing the US into a recession (one year ago, the bank forecast 4% GDP growth, also in line with the Fed's goal of a soft landing). And, of course, just like last year, Goldman will be dead wrong because not only is the US economy already in a brutal stagflation, but US growth will be deeply negative as soon as early 2023 when unemployment will soar and the economy will collapse, in keeping with FedEx's shocking warning that a global recession has begun. As such we now look for Goldman's next - and fare more realistic - GDP cut, one which will see quarterly "growth" for most of 2023 contract by 2%, 3% or more... which will serve as the moment to go long with all margin available as that's when the Fed will finally realize that the recession its unleashed is anything but "controlled" and could well match the collapse of 2008. That's when Powell & Co will panic, and as Mike Hartnett has taught us so well over the years, "markets stop panicking and when central planners start."