Superficial knowledge is not the essence

Meet Lucy.She was a math major in college,and aced all her courses in probability and statistics.Which do you think is more likely: that Lucy is a portrait artist,or that Lucy is a portrait artist who also plays poker?In studies of similar questions, up to 80 percent of participants chose the equivalent of the second statement:that Lucy is a portrait artist who also plays poker.After all, nothing we know about Lucy suggests an affinity for art,but statistics and probability are useful in poker.And yet, this is the wrong answer.