A person who behaves well in a particular situation is likely to behave well in the same situation

from those occasions on which we can't.But how do we do that?
In order to do that,nothing is more useful than an authority's track record on a particular topic.If someone turns out to perform well
in a given situation much of the time,then it's likely that he or she will continue to perform well in that same situation,at least in the near term.And this generalization holds true of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else.If someone can consistently pick winners in both politics and baseball,then we should probably trust him or her to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball,though maybe not in other things where his or her track record may be less stellar.If other forecasters have a poorer track record on those same two topics,then we shouldn't trust them as much.