The answers should be similar for both groups

In another study,researchers gave two groups of participants background information on a historical war and asked them to rate the likelihood that each side would win.They gave each group the same information,except that they only told one group who had actually won the war—the other group didn’t know the real world outcome.In theory, both groups’ answers should be similar,because the likelihood of each side winning isn’t effected by who actually won—if there’s a 20% chance of thunderstorms,and a thunderstorm happens,the chance of thunderstorms doesn’t retroactively go up to 100%.Still, the group that knew how the war ended rated the winning side as more likely to win than the group who did not.