Sweden's new submarine could shift the balance of power in the Baltic Sea.

Sweden's new submarine could shift the balance of power in the Baltic Sea.

The short answer is that, though Sweden was officially neutral, neutrality can have many meanings. In the case of its relations with the Warsaw Pact, the USSR feared that Sweden was leaning toward the West and would support NATO if fighting broke out. According to RAND, the general strategy was that the Soviets were hoping to not only probe Sweden's defenses, but to soften the government up so it would either not interfere or would accommodate Moscow if the Warsaw Pact began an all-out offensive against NATO.

Enter the Blekinge.
The world of 2022 is very different, but the current geopolitical situation and breakup of the international consensus that has been in place since 1992, and even 1945, has produced an eerie echo of the Cold War. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has raised the specter of armed conflict with the West, and the prospect of Finland and Sweden joining NATO raises the stakes in the Baltic beyond those of the 1980s.

This will be more than just gaining formal membership in the alliance. It will also require Sweden to integrate its forces into NATO command and control while training with other NATO countries. It will also mean that Sweden will be supporting a more aggressive foreign policy than a neutral one, posing Russia with the unpleasant prospect of the Baltic becoming a NATO lake at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared the United States Navy Russia's greatest threat.