4 years ago

Kevin Kallsen and Jim Hearn talk about the most important aspects of the COVID-19 Pandemic, ethics and the church.
From Jim Hearn:
Yesterday I sent an email with the caption “It Could Be Worse . . . “ I had intended to include an attachment which, I of course, omitted making my email difficult to understand. Well, at least you received a little note of encouragement if nothing else.

What I intended to attach was a copy of the Power Point presentation I used when I presented my doctoral dissertation publicly at Chicago for the first time following its successful defense. It is attached this time.

For years I studied viruses and pandemics ultimately focusing on the coming influenza pandemic. (No, the corona virus is not it.) I am probably the only person you know who has a model of the H5N1 influenza virus on their bookshelf.

Stated simply, the inquiry was as to how we should respond to the event ethically in the allocation of scarce medical resources. The result was the creation of a sliding ethical scale where the response changes with the intensity of the pandemic. I later published in this area considering the manner in which the concept of the “worth” or “immediate value” of an individual to society at any given time should factor into any allocation scheme. This vantage point was not entirely popular, but I believe necessary.

So, it is quite interesting for me to watch the progression of the corona virus which is now a classified as pandemic. Resource allocation decisions are beginning to be required of a type I contemplated. For instance, consider the situation in Italy.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/suddenly-the-er-is-collapsing-a-doctors-stark-warning-from-italys-coronavirus-epicentre/

https://pjmedia.com/trending/italian-doctors-facing-impossible-choice-of-deciding-who-lives-and-who-dies/

I don’t send the foregoing links to scare. Rather, I just want you to see that all of this was not unexpected. What comes as a surprise to you has been contemplated by those who are responsible for formulating our response systems. During my work I was actually able to simulate pandemics of varying strength. I could vary the transmissibility, survivability and mutation ability of a given virus, etc., and run the program to see how it would spread. This software exists for a reason.

What doesn’t help is misinformation and panic. I have seen much of both. I go to the market and see the shelves empty of toilet paper, hand-sanitizer and bottled water. It is strange to me. I receive a different anecdote from everyone with whom I speak. Usually the stories come from a friend or a friend of a friend, etc.

I do not mean to discount any fears you might have but I also don’t think it is helpful when people (and the media) fan the flames of hysteria. This will undoubtedly get worse before it gets better. But, those of you on this email chain are not, I believe, among the members of the at-risk population.

It will be fine if we all just keep our wits about us, don’t overreact (or under-react) and remain educated and informed with reliable data. Contrary to what you may think the stock market is not an accurate indicator of the severity of the outbreak or of its long-term effects. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts

What Roosevelt said I think applies here: “What we have to fear is, fear itself.”

Stay calm but be smart, reasonable and rational.

Peace,

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