How the Coronavirus Will End

How will the coronavirus outbreak end?

I see the pandemic going through four main stages…

1. SOCIAL-DISTANCING

The more we keep our distance the slower the virus will spread (Outbreak Simulator). Stay at home as much as possible. Wipe down surfaces. Keep 6 foot distance from people. I honestly wouldn’t judge you if you strapped yourself to a social-distancing donut.

2. TESTING

We are starting to transition into this stage (social distancing still required). One of today’s positive news stories is that we’re starting to see Drive-thru coronavirus testing sites pop up across the United States. ‘Merica!

3. ZONES

As the numbers come down, we may see the creation of “restricted zones”. In a month or so when a sizable enough portion of a population in a city/town/region test negative for the coronavirus then it’d be wise to label that area “corona-free” therefore allowing businesses to gradually reopen there. In order to keep the zone “corona-free” they could have troops and police guarding the zone’s perimeters whereby for people to be allowed to enter they’d have to undergo testing. With the Governor of California stating today that 56% of Californians could get the Coronavirus then I believe Governors from states with single-digit cases such as Alaska (9), Montana (9), and West Virginia (2) should lock down their borders. Once the “corona-free” zones increase in geographical size, we could then see it flip and we’ll just have “quarantined” zones where the troops won’t be their to keep you out, but instead to keep you in.

4. VACCININATION

The end game depends on a vaccine. Experts say we are potentially 18 MONTHS AWAY FROM A VACCINE, which the vaccine will come with its own risks because usually vaccines take a DECADE to go from development to manufacturing so by fast-tracking the process we could end up with a vaccine with a lot of side-effects. I remain optimistic though in this area because there’s so much bureaucracy surrounding the normal process that I think with growing international pressure on our governments we’ll see a vaccine distributed in at least some countries sometime in 2020.

CONCLUSION

According to one study 86% of people with the virus are walking around undetected. This could be YOU. If so all you have to do is breathe in my direction or touch a cardboard box and I'll get it too. The true severity of the illness is also unknown. According to one report, 2 out of 3 survivors saw a 20% to 30% drop in lung function. Don’t stress too much on this point because it’s only based on a sample size of 12 survivors and overtime you could regain some of your lung capacity through cardiovascular activity, but nonetheless this report as well as reports coming out of Europe is that this virus could be much more damaging to young people than previously thought. But before you panic, according to a larger study by the CCDC, 81% of cases are mild. Ultimately, it’s hard to give an accurate timetable for when this pandemic will end because there’s still so much unknown about the virus and a lot of this will come down to our respective government’s ability to defeat this invisible enemy. But we will get through this! Keep calm and wash your hands.