When Should America Reopen for Business? | Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown

This video I look at some of the "good news" relating to the coronavirus as well as what this could all mean in the coming months.

I’m feeling increasingly optimistic. The coronavirus is HIGHLY contagious.

“Normal flu, if I get that, I’m going to infect on average 1.3, 1.4 people … by the time it’s happened 10 times, I’ve been responsible for about 14 cases of flu. This coronavirus is very, very infectious, so every person passes it to three, now that doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but if each of those three pass it to three and that happens in 10 layers, I have been responsible for infecting 59,000 people.” — Hugh Montgomery, Director of the Institute for Human Health and Performance at UCL

How is this good news?

Well in the UK, 50% of people may have ALREADY gotten the virus, in which case, they are fast approaching herd immunity with a death rate of about 0.5% - 1%, which is still higher than the flu, but a lot lower than the 5% - 10% death rate we hear about in the news based on confirmed numbers.

As Steve Goodman, a professor of epidemiology at Stanford University, said,

“The [confirmed] numbers are almost meaningless. There’s a huge reservoir of people who have mild cases, and would not likely seek testing. The rate of increase in positive results reflect a mixed-up combination of increased testing rates and spread of the virus.”

Scientists’ say at least 86% of cases go unconfirmed. So the truth is that you may have already had or have the virus!

This virus cannot be contained, it can at best be slowed down.

Therefore there are only two ways out of this pandemic...

We develop herd immunity either via a vaccine, which could be 18 months away, or via roughly 70% of us getting the infection, which could be done in a month or two but would lead to a greater loss of life.

This brings us to the age old debate of saving lives vs. preserving freedom.

What course should we take?

If we locked things down for 18 months maybe only 20% of the population would get the virus, but the longer we stay shut the greater the chance that our loss of freedom would also lead to a greater loss of life via suicide, starvation, crime, and war. War being a close cousin of economic depression, which is what we’d be diving head-first into.

If we rapidly reopened the economy then maybe 70% of the population would get the virus, which means we'd have herd immunity, but at a higher cost of life.

Or we could take a more middle ground approach by focusing on one key metric: hospital capacity.

I think we should reopen businesses in areas where hospital capacity permits.

Before this pandemic, U.S. hospitals were already operating at 95% capacity, which means we need to be producing beds and ventilators FASTER than they are being occupied.

Each local and state government should be looking at their area’s hospital capacity to determine whether to shut things down or open them back up.

Once businesses reopen in your area then you should continue to wash your hands, wear a mask, and keep your distance to minimize the spread of the virus, but don’t freak out too much if you get the virus because 86% of cases are mild or asymptomatic.

Ultimately, we should permit the slow reopening of business because much like with post-WW2 when most of the world’s industries remained inoperative, the American economic engine could kick into gear in order to meet the world’s needs.

By embracing the middle ground, the United States would have a higher percent of coronavirus cases than say China, but in return we'd be preserving our freedoms and I'd argue saving more lives in the long run…

Because once India, for example, ends their lockdown they’ll see a spike in coronavirus cases at which point, if the U.S. has already flatten the curve by developing a higher immunity, then we’d be in a better position to send our dormant beds, ventilators, and medical staff to help them handle their impending crisis.

So the way for America to lead here isn’t by actively running toward immunity or by passively waiting for it, but by cautiously walking toward it.