When Should National Borders Reopen?

The Native Americans were enjoying their continental lockdown for thousands of years until one day in 1492 a small armada of ships appeared on the horizon…

The Europeans were bringing new goods, but also new germs.

Since Native Americans never had smallpox, measles, or the flu, those viruses quickly spread throughout the continent killing an estimated 90% of the indigenous population.

If we were to place ourselves back in that time period… sitting around the campfire… what advice would we give to Chief Big Bear in regards to the approaching European ships?

We might say,

“Big Bear, we must tell those big canoes to turn around! Shut down the borders! We must continue social distancing with the foreigners because if we let them in then their viruses will kill us all!”

But Chief Big Bear might say,

“But for how long can we continue to socially distance ourselves from the “White Devil”? It’s as inevitable as water flowing downhill that we’ll reunite with the rest of Mother Earth.

So isn’t it better if our 90% dies now instead of kicking the scalp down the trail because with each new rising sun their economy will only advance that much faster than our own?”

You’re horrified, but you know Big Bear’s right.

Humbly, hand-in-hand, you wave Christopher Columbus ashore.

Better to welcome them ashore while they have muskets rather than machine guns.

History repeats itself.

Today we are faced with a similar choice.

I’m currently recording this from Vietnam where the country has from all accounts done an amazing job at containing Covid-19.

As of today there are no new reported cases, which is especially impressive when you consider that Vietnam shares a border with China meanwhile in my home country more Americans have died from the virus than during the entire Vietnam War.

But in sitting around the dinner table with Travel Agent Big Bảo I asked…

Me: “When will Vietnam reopen its borders?”

Bao: “I don’t know... maybe 6 months to a year.”

Me: “Okay, so let’s say Vietnam reopens in 6 months… what do you think will happen to the number of coronavirus cases then?!”

Bao: “We’d probably see a big increase in them and then businesses would have to shut down again.”

Me: “Exactly!”

Vietnam’s containment success could very well be a double-edge sword.

The benefit of the United States of America’s inability to contain the virus is that the U.S. could afford to reopen its borders more quickly.

Whereas Vietnam has created a situation where basically everyone here is like the Native Americans in 1492…

Because when the Europeans come they will not only be bringing their money, but also their germs.

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All Vietnam may have done is postpone the inevitable.

Now of course, the difference between 1492 and 2020 is that according to the experts we are capable of developing a coronavirus vaccine in about a year.

So if Vietnam put saving lives over making money then Vietnam’s borders could stay shut for over a year.

But that would be such a hardline position for a country whose economy is so dependent upon tourism.

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Tourism directly accounts for 6% of Vietnam’s GDP, which ripples through the economy, especially the service-industry, which is responsible for more than a third of their GDP.

According to a report released by the ILO, in the second quarter of 2020 alone, 10 million Vietnamese could lose their jobs or face reduced income.

And so by shutting down their borders for over a year this could send Vietnam back to the rice rations.

With that said, I think the Vietnamese government is more likely to cave to international pressure by slowly reopening its borders when the rest of the world does in 6 - 12 months.

When that happens coronavirus cases will increase here again, but instead of Vietnam going back into lockdown in a futile attempt at bringing new cases down to 0 again, I believe the government should focus on hospital capacity by increasing restrictions as hospitals fill up and then decreasing restrictions as hospitals clear out.

This is a more middle ground approach to the virus I believe all government’s should embrace because it acknowledges the importance of life and freedom.

Or as Big Bear might say,

“We must welcome the White Devils ashore because we cannot let our fear of the shadows stop us from enjoying the sun.”