The Raw Deal (4 May 2022)

An extended discussion of the apparent decision of the US Supreme Court to reverse Roe v. Wade and Casey, which upheld the right of a woman to abortion (unrestricted during the first trimester; only regulating how it can be done during the second; but only to save the life or health of the woman during the third. I explain the rationale behind the original decision and the moral, legal, and political ramifications thereof, where it will have an impact on the midterm elections and make the Democrats more viable in the eyes of the public, where I could see a large percentage who intended to vote Republican now switching back on the basis of this vital issue. Whereas I have been predicting the loss of around 100 seats in the House and 3-4 in the Senate, those numbers could change dramatically to, say, 50 in the House and only 1-2 in the Senate. It may not change the outcome with respect to which party controls the House and the Senate, which ought to move to the GOP, but it will have a profound effect on political discourse from now until November.