False Flags & Conspiracies 2020: Scientific Reasoning about False Flags! (5-6 December 2020)

False Flags & Conspiracies 2020: Scientific Reasoning about False Flags! (5-6 December 2020) The application of the principles of scientific reasoning to complex and controversial (politically significant) events takes place in four stages: Puzzlement (something doesn't add up); Speculation (What are the possible alternative explanations?); Adaptation (How probable is the evidence assuming the truth of each of the alternatives, where the one that confers the highest probability on the evidence--when authentic has been separated from fabricated--has the higher likelihood?); and Explanation (where, when the evidence has "settled down" and points in the same direction, the one with the highest likelihood is acceptable as true (in the tentative and fallible fashion of science).