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Have Markets Priced-in Recession?
(6/23/22) Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony Wednesday that he might have to create a recession to contain inflation roiled markets, and he's set for a second round today. Futures have been reversing early losses, and the question now is whether markets can keep it up. We contend that any rally should be sold-in to; selling pressure continues to appear in these rallies because of so many investors feeling trapped, looking for any relief. We're looking for markets to rally back to the 20-DMA and 50DMA, somewhere between 3,950 and 4,000. Markets continue to price-in what's going on economically, but have not yet priced-in a recession, nor the decline in earnings estimates that has to occur as the economy slows. In turn, prices will have to decline as adjustments are made for lower earnings. Similarly, yields have not yet priced-in a recession; we're looking for interest rates to fall sharply to 2-1/2%.
Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton
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