Martin Armstrong: The Collapse of the Republic
Tom welcomes back to the show, Martin Armstrong. Martin discusses his economic confidence model and his study of historic economic patterns. Studying all the historic booms and busts, he developed a model around investor expectations. Every inflation wave is different, and this one won't be fixed by raising rates. This one is based on shortages and not a speculative boom. They don't want to admit that the lockdowns started the collapse in the supply chain. There is no economic understanding with politicians as they all operate with blinders.
We're going to see more unrest in Third World countries due to energy costs. People will vote from their recent experience. When Trump became elected, populism became the enemy. Politicians are threatened by nationalism. The truth is, most of them hate democracy. The heads of the E.U. are appointed and governments in that union are subservient. It doesn't really matter who gets elected. These people would love to impose a similar system here in North America.
The causes of hyperinflation are usually fairly complex. For Germany in 1922 they couldn't repay their reparations, so they confiscated 10 percent of everyone's assets for a bond. However, this action caused citizens to rapidly diversify out of the state currency. Usually, hyperinflations are the result of a loss of confidence. He describes how the capture of a Roman emperor created a loss of confidence in the government and began the debasing of the currency.
He discusses his model and how it's indicating a shift in the types of government from Republics to more direct democracies around 2032. Republics represent their own self-interest, and that eventually is their downfall. He expects another collapse around 2032.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Economic Confidence Model
8:40 - Malice or Stupidity?
10:20 - Power Cycles & Davos
16:05 - Debt & Owning Nothing
17:38 - Russia & Putin's Ratings
20:10 - Society & Religions
22:18 - Historic Hyperinflations
30:42 - The Problem with Debt
35:47 - MMT - The Road Ahead?
37:43 - Ukraine Outcome?
44:40 - Soros & China/Russia
50:00 - The Coming Shift
53:58 - CBDCs and Control
55:38 - Manias and Bubbles?
58:46 - The Gold Cycle & Assets
1:04:14 - Housing Markets
1:05:03 - Censorship
1:07:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Inflationary pressures are being caused by supply chain disruptions.
- Expect further unrest due to energy costs.
- The historic causes of hyperinflations.
- Why governments will move from Republics to more direct democracies.
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.
At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.
"In Armstrong's view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia's financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro "will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation," leading to the system's eventual collapse."
His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment's underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical patterns and market behavior in timing, price, and crisis to understand better and identify potential future trends, using an extensive monetary database and advanced proprietary models.
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