Decentralized Prediction Markets: Will they be shut down too?

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5 years ago
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There’s this idea of wisdom of the crowds, where if you poll enough people you’ll eventually converge upon the truth. But people are quick to give opinions, and not too careful with those opinions when they’re cost-free.

What if you ask them to bet money on their answers? Things start to get a little more interesting.

It turns out that when people have skin in the game, they are usually more careful with their opinions. This is what makes betting markets so interesting.

But rather than harnessing the power of prediction markets, the US started targeting them.

Enter decentralized prediction markets, like Augur, with no middlemen or gatekeepers. They allow consenting individuals to voice their opinions whilst laying money on the line.

I explain how they work, and why they could be an incredibly powerful tool for predicting the future.

By C. Edward Kelso and Naomi Brockwell
https://twitter.com/CryptoKelso

Visit Augur:
https://www.augur.net/

Learn more about DARPA’s proposed prediction markets:
http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/policyanalysismarket.html

DARPA’s announcement of closure:
https://web.archive.org/web/20040807091819/http://www.darpa.mil/body/NewsItems/pdf/FutureMappressrelease2.pdf

See the current odds from centralized betting markets across the world:
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/

If you would like to send me a message and support my channel, visit https://cointr.ee/naomibrockwell

Sign up for the free cryptobeat newsletter here:
https://Naomibrockwell.com/cryptobeat

Sign up for the members-only newsletter here and get access to exclusive content, like a 1-hr deep-dive with Augur co-founder, by becoming a member of NBTV!
https://Naomibrockwell.com/memberships

Watch on Odysee:
https://odysee.com/@NaomiBrockwell:4/Gambling-on-the-future-decentralized-prediction-markets:a?r=JBjAdauAdeysMGVDbHMJpNSQzbcMyqYg

Note: This episode was not sponsored in any way by Augur. I just like decentralized things.

Here are a bunch of products I like and use. Using these links helps support the channel and future videos!

Recommended Books:

Permanent Record - Edward Snowden
https://amzn.to/305negc

What has the government done to our money - Rothbard
https://amzn.to/2KMzmcu

Naomi's Privacy Bag: some of my favorite products to help protect your privacy!

Use the Brave browser! https://brave.com/nao076

USB-C to ethernet adapter:
https://amzn.to/2lOVBoy

Lightening to ethernet adapter:
https://amzn.to/2nWyNns

Faraday bag wallet (signal stopping, to protect your fob, credit card, and phone)
https://amzn.to/2SUkPhu

Data Blocker (if you're charging your phone in an unknown port, use this so that no data is transferred)
https://amzn.to/2SVh0J2

Computer privacy screen (use your computer in public? Keep your information safe!)
https://amzn.to/2SXYHmf

Phone privacy screen (don't let people in public see your private data)
https://amzn.to/2YyJMnH

Camera cover (for computers and phones, so no one can access your camera without you knowing)
https://amzn.to/2Mt7Hic

Privacy Tip: Don't use wifi, and if you must, append the tag ‘_nomap’ or ‘_optout’ to your SSID to stop other websites tracking your location.

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