Talking Data Episode #11: Claims and Jobs

• Welcome to the eleventh edition of our podcast series: Talking Data which offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets.

• U.S. unemployment claims remained elevated at 840,000 last week as the labor market flashes signs of a slowdown and more layoffs become permanent.

• CA can't count! How is that affecting claims?
- The state currently accounts for over 28% of all initial claims in the country. Prior to the pandemic, the state typically accounted for 10%-20% of all initial claims in the country.
- Once they get rid of the fraud, will the numbers DROP?

• What does Google Search say about jobs?
- The job applications topic has retreated over the past two weeks. JOLTS job openings corroborate the slowdown, falling in August for the first time in four months.

• The reopening is slowing
- Back in June, the consensus was expecting a massive growth quarter of more than 11%. This forecast has been falling hard and is now just 3.58%. While 3.5% is a decent quarter, there are no assurances this forecast is done falling.