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Daily Video Update for Tuesday, June 14, 2022.
Each day the market is open, a video is prepared which analyzes and evaluates current conditions of the S&P 500.
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Daily Video Update
For Tuesday June 14, 2022
Recap 1: Monday, June 13, 2022
Open
Gap lower Open to S3 (3777).
Midday:
Any rebound attempts were stopped.
Close
Prices fell below S3 and closed almost at the low
Down: -3.86%
Volume:
Above average
Fixation:
Technicals, inflation & interest rates (growth concerns), geopolitical concerns, earnings.
Recap 2: Monday, June 13, 2022
Market Comments:
Another very strong down-day. Stocks tanked, and interest rates and the Dollar rose.
There is speculation the Fed may raise rates 0.75% rather than 0.50%.
Fear is extreme again.
Reports of renewed lockdowns/shutdowns in Shanghai and Beijing due to the detection of new COVID cases.
A lack of confidence in valuations given that forward earnings estimates have yet to be cut in any meaningful way despite expectations for much slower growth and/or a recession in coming months.
Massive losses for cryptocurrencies.
Margin calls increasing.
Economic Reports:
None
Trend Condition:
Trend: New and Negative. Bias (Negative). Momentum (Negative).
The Day’s Session
Sentiment
Support and Resistance
Fed Watch
Inflation
SPX Sectors
Technical Alerts
Intraday
10-Minute Chart
Technical Overview
Tuesday, June 14, 2022 Positive
Market Positives
Energy
CRB
Gold
Interest rates
Staples.
Tuesday, June 14, 2022 Negative
Technical Overview: Market Negatives
Dow Jones Comp
World Indexes
Junk Bonds
FANG Index
Small Caps
Dow
Mid Caps
NASDAQ
NDX
NYSE Comp
All Stocks ETF
ARK Innovation ETF
Bitcoin Index
WLSH
Treasury and Corporate Bond Prices.
Trend Analysis
Breadth Analysis
Advance/Decline, NH/NL Studies
Short Term
Days to Weeks
Intermediate Term
Weeks to Months
Chart Variations
Trading Systems
Weeks to Months
Long Term
Months to Years
Broad Market
Stocks
Broad Market
Other Markets
Bonds
Possible Positive Scenarios
Tuesday June 14, 2022 Outlook
Technicals: Negative and oversold.
Sentiment is extreme.
Economic Reports:
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and the Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
Geopolitical events:
Russia/Ukraine. China/Supply Chain. Inflation & Interest rates (growth concerns). Oil. Earnings. Fed Speak & Policy. Japan.
Tuesday, June 14, 2022 Scenarios
1. Down (Negative)
A. Rising interest rates, inflation fears, growth concerns, earnings, Fed Speak & policy, Fear. Margin calls. New negative trend has triggered.
B. Technicals are negative but oversold.
2. Up (Positive)
A. The technicals are oversold. Disbelief.
B. Possible positive scenarios.
Coppock Curve and Pring Bottom Fisher have turned up. Staples spike is looking more viable(?). The Mass Index has triggered a signal. Have 2 Year Yields topped? (No!) Fed Pivot? (No!)
C. Technicals: Pivots, ST MAs, fib retracements, and previous levels may provide S/R.
3. Sideways: (Neutral)
ADX is above 20 and negative.
Conclusion based on Monday, June 13, 2022
Overview:
The SPX is negative.
Short-Term:
Negative and oversold.
Intermediate-Term:
Negative and oversold.
Long-Term:
Negative: Below 200 SMA.
Thank You!
John Clay
The SPX Investing Program
[email protected]
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