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Daily Video Update for Monday, June 13, 2022.
Each day the market is open, a video is prepared which analyzes and evaluates current conditions of the S&P 500.
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Daily Video Update
For Monday June 13, 2022
Recap 1: Friday, June 10, 2022
Open
Gap lower Open below S1 (3984) and S2 (3949) and continued selling to 3900.
No strong reound attempts
Midday:
Prices drifted sideways with some attempt to get back to S2.
Close
Late-day selling pushed prices to the low at 3900.
Down: -2.91%
Volume:
Above average
Fixation:
Technicals, inflation & interest rates (growth concerns), geopolitical concerns, earnings.
Recap 2: Friday, June 10, 2022
Market Comments:
Very strong down-day. Stocks tanked, and interest rates and the Dollar rose.
The S&P 500 is down 18.67% from the all-time high.
Fear is high but not extreme.
Economic Reports:
CPI increased 1.0% m/m (expected 0.7%) following a 0.3% increase last month. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.6% m/m (expected 0.5%) following a 0.6% increase last month. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 8.6%, versus 8.3% in April, and core CPI was up 6.0%, versus 6.2% in April.
The preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June dropped to 50.2 (expected 59.0) from the final reading of 58.4 for May.
Trend Condition:
Trend: Non-trending (negative). Bias (Negative). Momentum (Negative).
The Day’s Session
Sentiment
Inflation
SPX Sectors
Technical Alerts
Intraday
10-Minute Chart
Technical Overview
Monday, June 13, 2022 Positive
Market Positives
Energy
CRB
Gold
Interest rates
Staples.
Monday, June 13, 2022 Negative
Technical Overview: Market Negatives
Dow Jones Comp
World Indexes
Junk Bonds
FANG Index
Small Caps
Dow
Mid Caps
NASDAQ
NDX
NYSE Comp
All Stocks ETF
ARK Innovation ETF
Bitcoin Index
WLSH
Treasury and Corporate Bond Prices.
Trend Analysis
Breadth Analysis
Advance/Decline, NH/NL Studies
Short Term
Days to Weeks
Intermediate Term
Weeks to Months
Chart Variations
Trading Systems
Weeks to Months
Long Term
Months to Years
Broad Market
Stocks
Broad Market
Other Markets
Bonds
Possible Positive Scenarios
Monday, June 13, 2022 Outlook
Technicals: Negative and ST OS condition.
Sentiment remains negative.
Growth vs Value battle
Economic Reports:
None
Geopolitical events:
Russia/Ukraine. China/Supply Chain. Inflation & Interest rates (growth concerns). Oil. Earnings. Fed Speak & Policy. Japan.
Monday, June 6, 2022 Scenarios
1. Down (Negative)
A. Rising interest rates, inflation fears, growth concerns, earnings, Fed Speak & policy, Fear. The recent trend of selling into strength.
B. Technicals are negative.
2. Up (Positive)
A. The technicals are negative. Disbelief.
B. Possible positive scenarios.
Coppock Curve and Pring Bottom Fisher have turned up. Staples spike is looking more viable(?). The Mass Index has triggered a signal. Have 2 Year Yields topped? (No!) Fed Pivot? (No!)
C. Technicals: Pivots, ST MAs, fib retracements, and previous levels may provide S/R.
3. Sideways: (Neutral)
ADX is below 20 with a negative bias.
Conclusion based on Friday, June 10, 2022
Overview:
The SPX is negative.
Short-Term:
Negative possible ST OS.
Intermediate-Term:
Negative and possibly turning weaker.
Long-Term:
Negative: Below 200 SMA.
Thank You!
John Clay
The SPX Investing Program
[email protected]
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