Daily Video Update for Thursday, May 26, 2022.

Each day the market is open, a video is prepared which analyzes and evaluates current conditions of the S&P 500.
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Daily Video Update
For Thursday May 26, 2022
Recap 1: Wednesday, May 25, 2022
Open
Flat Open
Buying took prices to R1 (3973).
Midday:
Prices fell back to the UNCH level with minimal movement until the FOMC Minutes were released.
After the release, prices gyrated but moved higher to almost 4000.
Close
Prices retreated to R1 (3973) at the Close.
Up: 0.95%
Volume:
Below average
Fixation:
Technicals, inflation & interest rates (growth concerns), geopolitical concerns, earnings.
Recap 2: Wednesday, May 25, 2022
Market Comments:
Positive reaction to the FOMC Minutes.
Small and Mid-Caps outperformed.
The VIX is producing some interesting information.
Fear remains extreme.
S&P 500 is in correction territory.
Technical indicators are showing continued improvement.
Economic Reports:
Durable goods increased 0.4% (expected 0.6%). Excluding transportation, Durable goods rose 0.3% (expected 0.6%).
Mortgage applications declined 1.2%.
Trend Condition:
Trend: Negative (strengthening). Bias (Mixed/Positive). Momentum (Mixed/Negative).

Recap 3: Wednesday, May 25, 2022
FOMC Takeaways:
"Market participants were presumably heartened by the notion that Fed members want to move expeditiously to the neutral rate in a bid to quell inflation pressures, and that moving there quickly could allow the Fed possibly to pause its rate hikes later in the year to assess the effects of policy firming.”
Briefing.com
In essence, raise rates faster now to help control inflation and then focus on economic growth later.

Supplemental Video
A Supplmental Video is being prepared which will attempt to explain why the markets are having such a hard time producing a sustainable bounce.

Hypothesis:
The markets cannot sustain a strong and lasting recovery until the Fed makes a shift in policy that the markets really like.
The bounce is defined as possibly a counter-trend move, or a renewal of the bull market, that lasts more than a few days and may establish a new all-time high.
My intentions are to post this video as soon as possible but may likely but over the weekend.
This will be added to the list of “Possible Positive Scenarios.”
The Day’s Session
Sentiment
SPX Sectors
Technical Alerts
Intraday
10-Minute Chart
Technical Overview
Thursday, May 26, 2022 Positive
Market Positives
Energy
CRB
Gold
Interest rates
Staples.
Thursday, May 26, 2022 Negative
Technical Overview: Market Negatives
Dow Jones Comp
World Indexes
Junk Bonds
FANG Index
Small Caps
Dow
Mid Caps
NASDAQ
NDX
NYSE Comp
All Stocks ETF
ARK Innovation ETF
Bitcoin Index
WLSH
Treasury and Corporate Bond Prices.
Trend Analysis
Breadth Analysis
Advance/Decline, NH/NL Studies
Short Term
Days to Weeks
Intermediate Term
Weeks to Months
Chart Variations
Trading Systems
Weeks to Months
Long Term
Months to Years
Broad Market
Stocks
Broad Market
Other Markets
Bonds
Possible Positive Scenarios
Thursday, May 26, 2022 Outlook
Technicals: Negative but continue to improve.
Sentiment remains extreme negative.
Growth vs Value battle
Economic Reports:
Second GDP Estimate, Weekly Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales.
Geopolitical events:
Russia/Ukraine. China/Supply Chain. Inflation & Interest rates (growth concerns). Oil. Earnings. Fed Speak & Policy. Japan.
Thursday, May 26, 2022 Scenarios
1. Down (Negative)
A. Rising interest rates, inflation fears, growth concerns, earnings, Fed Speak & policy, Fear.
B. Technicals are negative.
2. Up (Positive)
A. The technicals are negative, but still showing some improvement. Sentiment is extreme negative.
B. Possible positive scenarios.
Coppock Curve and Pring Bottom Fisher have turned up. Staples spike is not looking as viable.
C. Technicals: Pivots, fib retracements, and previous levels may provide S/R.
3. Sideways: (Neutral)
ADX is above 20 and showing a negative trend.
Conclusion based on Wednesday, May 25, 2022
Overview:
The SPX is negative.
Short-Term:
Negative but showing some improvement.
Intermediate-Term:
Negative but may be improving.
Long-Term:
Negative: Below 200 SMA.
Thank You!
John Clay
The SPX Investing Program
John@SPXInvesting.com