Anti-Ship Missiles in Ukraine - What Coverage Will they Provide?

Neptune Anti-ship missile, Harpoon missile and the Naval Strike Missile may all be in Ukraine. This compares the Neptune, Harpoon and NSM and their coverage in the Black Sea.Show more

So, yesterday we heard more talk about Harpoons and anti-ship missiles been sent to Ukraine. Another missile mentioned was the Naval Strike Missile developed by Norway. Ukraine does, of course, have the Neptune missile. But numbers are low, so they urgently do need more anti-ship missiles. They did receive the Brimstone missile from Britain, but these are more aimed at short-range defence against small landing craft rather than striking a large ship from range. That isn’t to say they aren’t useful. For example, looking at the specs for the Harpoon RGM4 variants, we can see it has a minimum range of 13km, making it useless against close-range targets, so a second line of defence by Brimstone would be needed to defend the coastline.

But in this video, I thought I would take a look at the Neptune Missile and two proposed other long-range missiles and see just what areas of Ukraine’s coast they would be able to defend if deployed. Now, the obvious place for deployment would likely be in and around odessa as that would be the main target for an amphibious assault, so for this video, I am going to use odessa as the firing point.

We will start with Ukraine’s own Neptune, which has a range of around 300km. I will use yellow as the circle for Neptune. As you can see, Neptune covers pretty much all of the North and North Western Black Sea—from Odesa, it can almost reach Sevastopol and can hit targets well beyond Snake Island—shown on the map as “Bile.” But, Ukraine doesn’t have many of them, so can’t rely on Neptune alone. Ukraine needs to be selective when hitting targets with Neptune so as not to waste them—and of course, antiship missiles can be shot down. But, it does cover a lot of ocean.

Next we will look at Norway’s Naval Strike Missile. In red. This has a range of 185km. As you can see, less than the Neptune but still a substantial part of the Black Sea. Again, it is capable of hitting targets well beyond Snake Island, though can’t reach Sevastopol.

Now, the Harpoon—it is tricky, as there are many Blocks of missile all with different ranges, and we don’t know which one Ukraine is going to be sent. We do know it would be the RGM-84 variant as that is the naval or ground-launched version. That has a max range—depending on block of 124km to around 280 km.

So, for Harpoon—we will do the minimum range—black and the maximum range—white, to cover our bases. So, again—a wide tract of the Black Sea would be covered. The lower range harpoons wouldn’t reach Snake Island, but the longer range one would. And it would also reach close to Sevestapol.

Now, if Ukraine received enough of the long-range Harpoons to go with the Neptune, they could—theoretically--keep Russia’s Black Sea Fleet at Sevastapol stuck in harbor. Or at the least, severely restrict and hinder movements.

Snake Island a is a hot spot in the battle. Now, it is generally resupplied by a mixture of small Serna-Class landing craft working in tandem with a crane barge and with the Sev er let bob rov —seen here on a satellite photo from May 13 possibly transporting a Pantsir. While the long range missiles would likely be wasted on a small Serna-class boat. The sev er let bob rov is a large ship of 95 meters. A suitable target.

Having a number of missiles capable of hitting targets in and around Snake Island would severely hamper Russia’s ability to resupply. Then there’s the risk of an amphibious landing—while unlikely, it is always a prospect. Having a number of long-range missiles in and around Odesa could stop an amphibious assault before it even begins.

And just for fun, we will look at the coverage of Brimstone. Brimstone 1 has a range of 20km from a fixed-wing aircraft and 12km from a helicopter. Since Ukraine is launching from the ground, I will use the lower 12km as that is likely closer to the range of the truck-mounted platforms. So, the range isn’t far, but if Ukraine deployed a number of Brimstones in and around Odesa, they would provide ample close-range protection from small landing craft such as the Serna. Small landing craft operated by the Black Sea Fllet include two Project 02510 in use with special forces and the Serna. The Raptor two can carry 20 marines. We’ve seen Brimstone operated bu Ukraine in an anti-ground role, so it’s unknown if they will depploy it in Odesa or other locations to protect the sea or not.

Now, just to add—I picked Odesa as the base point for launchers, just as it seems the most likely target for Russia to hit. Given the platforms could be mobile—like the Neptune is, they could feasibly deploy it from anywhere along the coast extending its range or even from inland—decreasing its range but keeping it better protected. This was just an example if they were deployed in and around Odesa to show what coverage they could have.