Daily Video Update for Thursday, May 12, 2022.

Each day the market is open, a video is prepared which analyzes and evaluates current conditions of the S&P 500.
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Daily Video Update
For Thursday May 12, 2022
Announcements
1. SPXInvestingBlog.com
All slides used in each day’s video can be viewed, downloaded as a PDF, and/or saved individually.
Slides of charts NOT used in the video, but are viewed each day, are also uploaded for viewing, saving and now available to download as a PDF.
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3. InterMarket Analysis (IMA). Added video.
Recap 1: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Open
Gap higher Open but did not reach R1.
Selling took prices down to the daily pivot which acted as support.
Midday:
Selling took prices below the daily pivot and went negative.
Prices fell to just below S1 (3950).
Close
Late day buying failed and was followed by late day selling.
Close just off of the low.
Down: -1.65%
Volume:
Above average
Fixation:
Technicals, inflation & interest rates, geopolitical concerns, earnings.
Recap 2: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Market Comments:
The S&P 500 was down but the technicals are showing some improvement.
Interest rates and stocks declined together.
Lost 4000 again
Oil over $100
Fear is getting very extreme.
The VIX is not spiking.
S&P 500 is in correction territory.
Economic Reports:
CPI: (see next slide), Treasury Budget showed a $308.2 bln surplus from a year ago. The budget deficit over the last 12 months is $1.20 trln versus a deficit of $1.73 trln in March.
The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 2.0%.
Trend Condition:
Trend: Negative (strengthening). Bias (Negative). Momentum (Negative).
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
CPI
Increased 0.3% month-over-month in April (expected 0.2%)
Core CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month (expected 0.4%).
Total CPI was up 8.3% y/y which was down from 8.5% y/y in March, and core CPI was up 6.2% y/y, down from 6.5% y/y in March.
Has inflation peeked?
Will monetary policy still suggest continued tightening?
As of this recording, the charts at shadowstats.com have not been updated.
The Day’s Session
Sentiment
SPX Sectors
Technical Alerts
Intraday
10-Minute Chart
Technical Overview
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 Positive
Market Positives
Energy
CRB
Gold
Interest rates
Staples.
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 Negative
Technical Overview: Market Negatives
Dow Jones Comp
World Indexes
Junk Bonds
FANG Index
Small Caps
Dow
Mid Caps
NASDAQ
NDX
NYSE Comp
All Stocks ETF
ARK Innovation ETF
Bitcoin Index
WLSH
Treasury and Corporate Bond Prices.
Trend Analysis
Breadth Analysis
Advance/Decline, NH/NL Studies
Short Term
Days to Weeks
Intermediate Term
Weeks to Months
Chart Variations
Trading Systems
Weeks to Months
Long Term
Months to Years
Broad Market
Stocks
Broad Market
Other Markets
Bonds
Possible Positive Scenarios
Thursday, May 12, 2022 Outlook
Technicals: Negative but may be improving slightly.
Watch the VIX
The markets have broken below a trendless IT range.
Growth vs Value battle
Economic Reports:
Producer Price Index (PPI), and the weekly jobless claims.
Geopolitical events:
Russia/Ukraine. China/Supply Chain. Inflation & Interest rates. Oil. Earnings. Fed Speak. Japan.
Thursday, May 12, 2022 Scenarios
1. Down (Negative)
A. Rising interest rates and inflation fears.
Earnings and Fed Speak that spooks the markets.
B. Technicals negative but oversold.
2. Up (Positive)
A. Oversold bounce?
B. Possible positive scenarios. N/A.
C. Technicals: Pivots and previous levels may provide support/resistance.
3. Sideways: (Neutral)
ADX is above 20, strengthening and showing a negative trend.
Conclusion based on Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Overview:
The SPX is negative.
Short-Term:
Negative and oversold.
Intermediate-Term:
Negative and oversold.
Oscillators: Negative and below important MAs.
Long-Term:
Negative: Below 200 SMA.
Thank You!
John Clay
The SPX Investing Program
John@SPXInvesting.com