Analyzing the Calculations of RU, US, and EU #52

In this podcast, I attempt to understand the (mis-)calculations of the three main parties in the current conflict.

I start by stating that 1. the Russians are rational, and 2. the Russians didn't exhaust their political options before launching this operation.

I point out that this seemingly irrational "escalatory ladder" could be explained by the closing time window for the US to commit to another conflict in a different theatre: In short, desperate times demand desperate measures; if a defeat of RU is impossible, weaken it before the main battle is an acceptable outcome.

Lastly, I suggest one rational explanation of EU's fervor in this conflict: In short, it is better to bet everything on a 10% chance of winning than to accept 100% change of losing everything without a fight.