crossbordertalks

Gabriel Danci is a Romanian expert on Afghanistan, who currently makes a Ph.D. research on Afghan geopolitics at the University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania. He provides custom-tailored geopolitical insights for senior executives and related advisors from the private and public sectors. He researches and reports on practices, military capabilities, and strategies of governments and other relevant non-state actors shaping the political landscape of West, Central and South Asia. In this episode he discussed about the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, about various geopolitical interests - regional and global, around the country, about the situation of Afghan refugees and other issues.

Cross-border Talks spoke to Dragoș Mateescu - a Romanian expert on Turkey, working for the Romanian diplomatic institute. The talks deals with Turkey's veto on Finland and Sweden's bid to join NATO, the foreign policy of Ankara in the Middle East, gas geopolitics in Southeastern Europe, as well as Turkey's attitude towards war between Russia and Ukraine. Mateescu explained that Turkey's led by people with strong nationalist convictions, who have their sensitivies, just as other countries have theirs. He sees an escalation of challenges and threats to the current political status quo in Turkey - not only the Kurdish issue, not only the Gullen affair, but also the economic condition, which is dire. Mateescu provides facts and perspectives on a number of issues, which could set up better the international public's understanding of Turkey and its foreign policy.

Cross-border Talks spoke at the end of April 2022 to Petr Drulák - former deputy minister of foreign affairs of Czechia and former Czech ambassador to France. We asked him about the roots of the current conflict, which he discussed with great detail, following the post-Cold War relations between the USA, Europe, Ukraine and Russia. He also had a take on the possibility for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Finally, he also provided a perspective that takes into account the interests of Central and Southeastern Europe. In Drulak's view our region is not interested in prolonging the war. But the Czech foreign policy expert also makes a number of different very precise observations, that show an European and a Central European view towards the conflict of a man who is knowledgeable on international affairs.

Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat's comment on the announced plans for a Ukrainian law on Polish citizens, which is to grant them a special status in Ukraine. She believes that the fastrack for EU membership for Kiev - and perhaps even a prospect of European integration in a predictable future - gets more and more unrealistic. That prompts the Ukrainian leadership to seek for expansion of ties with its closest supporter - Poland. But the planned law creates so far mostly fake news. https://www.euractiv.com/section/all/short_news/poles-to-be-granted-special-status-in-ukraine/

Cross-border Talks interviewed the Romanian political scientist and expert on EU affairs Sergiu Mișcoiu in the context of the renewed discussions for EU reform, following the completion of the deliberations, called Conference for the Future of Europe. We discussed: - how much of a success is the announced opening to the public for consultations, called Conference for the Future of Europe; - why the EU continues to be elites-led and the conference mostly reaffirmed the already followed agenda; - how should Emmanuel Macron's proposal for concentric circles of integration or European political community, opened to non-member from the neighbourhood be seen - as encouragement for the non-member to engage the EU or as a discouragement for their efforts to become full members; - how should we perceive the efforts of Western Europe to impose reforms on EU's East in fields such as energy transition, anti-corruption and EU defense; - what can EU's East learn from Western Europe on the issue of rising energy prices and EU as a market; - what could be the future role Romania and Bulgaria play within the EU.

The member of the European Parliament from the Left discusses with Cross-border Talks about consequences of the war in Ukraine for the EU, about green transition and modernization in both Western Europe and Southeastern Europe. He also receives the challenge to formulate a left-wing approach to anti-corruption.

Gael de Santis is an international desk editor at L'Humanite - the leading French left-wing journal. He spoke to Cross-border Talks about the 2022 French presidential elections: - what are the interests, which Macron and Le Pen represents, what are their political styles and essence; - a class analysis of the results of the first and second round of the presidential elections; - the French geopolitical position in Europe and the world during the 2nd term of Emmanuel Macron (an element of which is interest to engaging Russia, if the crisis in Ukraine ends within 1-2 years); - the nature of French interest in Southeastern Europe: social dumping, anticorruption, common EU defense; - internal and external challenges to Macron during his 2nd term.

The Italian historian of Hungarian origin discusses about the recent Hungarian parliamentary elections and the phenomenon Orban in the times of Russian intervention in Ukraine: - what motivates the Hungarian province, underclass and the Hungarian elites of Buda to support Orban from very different positions and with different rationalizations; - why did the Hungarian opposition fail so lamentably at the April 2022 vote - over 20% points behind Orban in election results; - Hungary as a regional powerhouse in Southeastern Europe - it started in 2015 with the refugee crisis and the coming in power of Law and Justice in Poland and it got quite a bit of magnitude; - however the Polish leadership scorned Orban over his reluctance to adopt clear anti-Russian position an policies over the war in Ukraine - therefore Polish influence in the EU is rising, while the Hungarian one is falling; - Hungary can no longer pretend to be a bridge and middle ground between "the West" and "the East", when there is an open confrontation between them; - how to be a successful opposition to Orban and how not to be - examples from the elections with a right-wing and a left-wing candidate.

Radu Stochița is a Romanian student in the USA, who pursues a number of initiatives related to the American and Romanian labour movement. He develops a newsletter on labour issues, researches the exploitation in the gaming industry, writes articles and press releases for the Cartel Alfa Romanian labour union. Radu Stochita takes on the labour movement in the USA, on the decreasing prejudice towards left-wing ideas among Americans and on how labour unions answer to the crisis, caused by the Russian invasion in Ukraine

Michał Wojda, a foreign policy analyst at Portal Spraw Zagranicznych (International Problems' Portal), one of the biggest Polish sites dedicated to international relations, gave an interview to Cross-border Talks about the fast track membership of Ukraine. He analyzed the reactions of the core countries in Western Europe, the attitude of Poland and other issues of European affairs, related to the war in Ukraine. In his view what happens now would lead to the energy refoundation of the EU, with a move to replacement of Russian energy sources with others. He also views the refugee crisis in Poland and other countries as significant, while the economic devastation caused by war in Ukraine is already enormous. Wojda also had a take on the EU membership course of Georgia and the Republic of Moldova and outlined various scenarios for the end of the Russian military intervention in Ukraine.

Codru Vrabie - a Bucharest-based expert on good governance, who has been involved in training of young "Leaders in Justice" in Romania and the Republic of Moldova speaks to Cross-border Talks about the perspectives before Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine after they applied for EU membership. He is skeptical that the fast track accession for them is realistic in the short term, but points out that the three countries are fighting now for what the EU represents, and deserve to be supported - economically, organizationally, morally. He discusses about the successes of the Moldova e-government as well as the ongoing judicial reforms. He also points out that the home affairs and justice are traditionally the most difficult EU accession chapters in Southeastern Europe. He also comments on the role Poland, Romania and Bulgaria could play in the current crisis - humanely - for the refugees, but also in the mid-term and long-term to provide perspectives before the elites and the people of Eastern Partnership. As for military support for Ukraine - it is morally justified, but "a political suicide". Real military support can only be given by neutral states. The cases of Austria and possibly India need to be studied in this sense.

Cross-border Talks takes on the Russian military invasion in Ukraine together with Veronika Sušová-Salminen - a Czech-Finnish expert on Russia. Both she and Malgorzata (who speaks Russian and Ukrainian) comment on a number of issues: - the fact that it was not a blitzkrieg and Ukrainians resist invasion; - the reasons for what happened (different visions for the EU security, great powers competition and internal Ukrainian contradictions); - what Russia's detachment from Europe and West means for both Russia and Europe (including the countries of the Eastern flanc of NATO) - with Russia becoming a junior partner of China and Central and Southeastern Europe getting militarized and part of a new Cold War; - how is this war changing the Russian-Ukrianian relations (affirming the Ukrainian identity); - what are the social consequences of this war for Russia itself (there could be a rupture inside its elites and society as many people oppose the war with Ukraine)'.

Following a rise in strikes and grassroots labour activism in Poland, Cross-border Talks made a discussion about the current state of affairs there, in Romania and Bulgaria. Malgorzata Kulbaczewska presented the case of "hope" - sharing analysis about labour unionism in Poland and video footage from a 24 January 2022 protest in the plant for electric buses Solaris. Radu Stochita - the youngest communicator of the labour union movement in Romania, spoke about the attitudes in Romania towards strikes. Both Malgorzata and Radu seemed to be hopeful about new generation of activism. Vladimir Mitev shared his views on the difficulties before labour unions in Bulgaria and explained why in his view change from below is difficult in his home country and if change is to happen, it will probably be imposed from above.

Konrad Watrin, former DPA foreign correspondent and present professor in history and social sciences speaks to Cross-border Talks about what the future German government of Olaf Scholz is expected to do. In his view, there are plenty of social problems that the country faces - such as the falling consumption force of its middle class and professionals. The international relations are also a challenge - with unprecedented developments taking place around. In May 2021 France and the UK sent military ships to protect their fisherman over a dispute for "sea resources" that one could have never imagined until recently. On the other hand, to the East Poland and Hungary are a clear challenge to the EU's undertanding as "unions of values", based on EU law superior to national legislation. Beyond Europe, Russia and especially China pose an ever larger challenge through what Watrin refers as "neo-colonialism" on the part of Beijing. In this situation Germans have voted for different faces, but in fact for stability, for more of the same. And while Merkel have done some things well, there are many issues she didn't bother to confront. One of them is the fate of the EU - the great project of peace, which for the first time since its creation is threatened with unravelling. After Brexit, it is now Poland which challenges the European unified order. The tensions between the Poland and the EU instititutions made Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat the co-host of the podcast, and Konrad Watrin agree that the current Polish goverenment represents an anti-EU stance, that has the support of a minority of Poles. The majority is obviously pro-European and wants it to be an union where EU values and EU funds go hand in hand. And Konrad Watrin is sure that Olaf Scholz will confront the Polish leaders as soon as the new German govenrment is sworn in. He also made the conclusion, that Hungary has gone probably beyond the point of return in its opening to Russia. In any case, the EU will be undergoing change in the time that come and Germany will be the most influental country within the EU in what follows.

The third episode of Cross-border Talks offers a look to the Great Middle East after the ongoing US/NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. In the first segment we speak to Bartosz Rydlinksi who has been affiliated with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is knowledgeable on international relations between "West" and "East". We study what is the American rationale behind the pullout, is the EU going to pay once again the price for Western beligerence (apart from the people of the Middle East), what role might neighbouring countries such as Iran play in Afghanistan and other issues. In the second segment the issue of Iran's position and role in Afghanistan is further studied through Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat's interview with Vladimir Mitev. He observes that the Iranian state and society are complex and see many issues in contradictory senses. The Revoutionary Guards has been engaging the Taliban for years, but another part of Iranians fear that a trap is set up for them to the east, that they might get involved in a civil war that will drain further their resources. The interview also deals with the new cabinet of Ebrahim Raisi, its foreign policy preferences and the recent protests in Iran.

In the second segment of the third episode of the Cross-border Talks Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat tries to find out a number of issues about Iran's attitude towards the Taliban, the foreign policy priorities of the new administration of the president Ebrahim Raisi and the future of the nuclear agreement. Vladimir Mitev - a Bulgarian-Romanian Iranologist, explains that Iran has certain duality within the state and society. E.g. it has two armies - a national one and one loyal to the Islamic character of the country - the Revolutionary Guards. And the attitudes towards the Taliban are different. One hand the Revolutionary Guards are engaging the Taliban. On the other hand, Iranians have experience of suffering from the Taliban and fear possible getting involved in "a trap" in Afghanistan set up for them. The cabinet of Rouhani had a general pro-Western foreign policy line. But the fact that Raisi's foreign minister Amir Abdollahian looks to the East, doesn't mean that Iran makes a truly major shift. Its pro-Western people, the pro-European middle class remain present. Towards the end of the interview the two interlocutors discuss the various social, economic, medical, humanitarian and water crisis in Iran. Their conclusion is that those crisis require international cooperation between Iran and the world. And that means that relations with and of Tehran should not be seen only as power relations. The people's interests must be in the center of international relations.

Bartosz Rydlinski (former Carnegie Endowment for International Peace associate) comments on the recent developments in Afghanistan for the third episode of Cross-border Talks. He has a number of observations: the USA's public opinion is supportive of the American withdrawal, the Taliban have undergone evolution, just as Afghan women have done, regional powers rely on them for security and stability. Rydlinski claims that the Iranian role for the future of Afghanistan will become more important, especially if it is constructive from international point of view. The Polish expert also studies the current crisis from the perspective of the Afghan people in this interview, which he gives to Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev.

The second episode of Cross-border talks discusses the large issue of EU's place in international relations. There have been growing discussions of the need for EU strategic autonomy - a concept, promoted by the French president Emmanuel Macron. To learn more about that Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev discuss with Sergiu Mişcoiu in the segment called "Dispatches from..." - a Cluj Napoca-based Romanian expert on international relations and a high-ranking university professor. Mişcoiu defines the concept, explains which are the Euro-Atlanticist and the autonomist countries in the EU, and goes further into commenting on possible international partners for a strategically autonomous EU. He also comments on the idea of a possible Polexit (Polish leaving of the EU). A conclusion to be made is that still many Europeans don't feel need to detach from the umbrella of the US military. In July 2021 the European Comission was expected to present a report on EU open strategic autonomy, but it is getting delayed for the autumn and it looks like its autonomous message is getting diluted. In any case, the EU advanced towards obtaining more hard power and playing more often Real Politik in international relations. In the Crossroads Post segment Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat makes a thorough analysis of the changing EU attitude towards the countries of the Eastern Partnership. As seen from the 17th Batumi International Conference, which took place on 19 July 2021, three countries of the EU Neighbourhood obtain the status of excellent students in their EU association - Georgia, Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. Three others - Belarus, Azerbaijan and Armenia don't seem to be charmed by the EU and by Europeanization. In a talk with Vladimir Mitev Malgorzata-Kulbaczewska-Figat explains what are the policy decision at the Batumi International Conference, why the EU changed its approach to the Eastern Partnership, what is the American interest towards the three countries, to whom is Russia cozier - to the USA or the European strategy and what is the role of the frozen conflicts. Finally, Malgorzata speaks about the perspective before the common people of the three countres - it looks like their life prospects are pretty much related to emigration and work in the EU. 00:00:00 EU's new policy towards the Eastern Partnership countries 00:26:34 EU's strategic autonomy (a discussion with Sergu Mişcoiu) Read and subscribe to the podcast's blog: https://crossbordertalks.wordpress.com/

In the second episode of the Cross-border Talks podcast Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev discuss with the Romanian university professor of European affairs and international relations Sergiu Mişcoiu. The topic is the concept of EU's strategic autonomy, which is being promoted by France's Emmanuel Macron. It is in competition with the Atlantist current in the EU, supported by Germany, northern nations and countries in Central and Southeastern Europe. The interview also deals with the issue of Polish-EU relations and a possible Polexit, as well as the possible strategic partners of an "autonomous EU". According to Sergiu Mişcoiu, even though autonomists want to distance themselves from the USA, that wouldn't mean that neoimperialist Russia will become an easier partner. But Africa is much more likely to cooperate with the EU, especially if the EU starts speaking in one voice. At the end of the day, the strategic autonomy has a lot to do with security and military matters. An initiative in this sense is PESCO, which was established in 2017. But as Vladimir Mitev noted a strategic document on "open strategic autonomy" was expected to be produced by the European Commission in July 2021, but its publication seems to be getting delayed for the autumn. That is another sign, that there are constantly shifting balances in the EU and probably a consequence of the warming-up of relations with the USA in the times of Joe Biden. Read and subscribe to the pocast's blog: https://crossbordertalks.wordpress.com/

The 17th Batumi International Conference of the EU and the three students of exclellence in the Eastern Partnership - Ukraine, Georgia and the Republic of Moldova, represents a change of the EU policy. From now on the three countries' ties to the EU will be promoted, while the EU relations with the other three countries - Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan, most likely not advance significantly. In the second episode of the Cross-Border Talks Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat makes a thorough analysis on the geopolitical perspectives of the three Eastern Partnership students of excellence. The USA views strategically its relationship with them, because of security and military issues. Russia has the trump card of frozen conflicts, which as seen in Nagorno Karabakh can get reactivated unexpectedly. But while Russia opposes the advancement of NATO in the region, it is also less opposed to the EU's strategy towards the three countries. At the Batumi International Conference EU Council's president Charles Michael announced that the EU will support the three countries in fighting the negative outcome of the pandemic with public and private investment, which could reach 17 billion euro. The second pillar of EU's strategy to the region is the transport interconnectvity. The third, final pillar, is the most vague one - the issue of reform, of rule of law and respect of procedures. Malgorzata Kulbaczewska reminded that the people of the three countries are generally lacking perspectives and see the opening to the EU as a solution of the economic problems through emigration. But the future of the region remains bleak. Vladimir Mitev reminded that the EU generally has appeal to the middle classes all over its neighbourhood, but it needs to be studied what it can offer to the underprivileged layers of society. In any case the 17th Batumi International Conference could be seen as a sign that the EU remains engaged in its Eastern Neighbourhood - but it admits certain failure with one group of countries, and prefers to focus on the other group, that is more open to Europeanisation. Subscribe to new posts at the podcast's blog here: https://crossbordertalks.wordpress.com/

July 2021 is incredibly hot in Central and Eastern Europe – both in climate and politics. Elections, political changes, fighting against oligarchy are in the focus of the first episode of the podcast Cross-Border Talks, hosted by Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev in cooperation with Strajk, The Barricade and Naprzod Foundation. Bulgaria and the Republic of Moldova held their parliamentary elections on 11 July 2021. And the results seem to suggest that we are cruising in the times of Joe Biden. In Moldova the party of a pro-EU economist and technocrat Maia Sandu, got an overwhelming support for its anti-corruption agenda, which promises the dismantling of the remains of the clientelist networks of the former almighty oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. In Bulgaria, the results are inconclusive for a second time this year. But it is clear that the era of Boyko Borissov, who used be the prime minister for most of the last 12 years, is gone. It is the legacy of Trump, which seems to be in a slow retreat now, while the political culture of “my way or the highway” makes the formation of a new government majority difficult. In this context the role of the president Rumen Radev rises. And while he was accused of being pro-Russian, when he was elected in 2016, now he seems to be warm to at least two American initiatives – the anti-corruption fight and the Three Seas initiative. And this is the Three Seas initiative which is the key topic of this edition of Cross-Border Talks. The summit of the initiative in Sofia took place on 8 and 9 July 2021 and it become clear that The Three Seas Initiative has been undergoing a change – with its economic and regional cooperation elements taking the upper hand… while the anti-Russian and anti-Chinese agenda remains in the background. Malgorzata and Vladimir discussed the changing attitudes of Bulgaria and Poland – two countries with ambitious leaders – towards the initiative. We heard the Bulgarian president Rumen Radev presenting the results of the summit. We read part of the Declaration of the participating countries. And we tried to answer the question – what next for regional co-operation in Southern and Central-Eastern Europe?

Malgorzata Kulbacewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev discuss about the recent summit of the Three Seas Initiative in Sofia. They explain why the Bulgarian president Rumen Radev hosted and strongly supported it, while the Polish enthusiasm for it is on the decrease. They also have a look at other initiatives for regional cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe. The segment contains also a moment from the press conference of the Three Seas Initiative Summit, where the Bulgarian president Rumen Radev outlines what has been achieved at the international forum.

Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and Vladimir Mitev discuss the 11 July 2021 parliamentary elections in Bulgaria and the Republic of Moldova. These two countries have common characteristics: oligarchic social models, they had stolen banks in the last ten years, etc. The Moldovan voters emitted a clear pro-EU message and desire for anticorruption. The Bulgarian voters didn't provide conclusive results, just as the previous elections - on 4 April 2021. But Bulgaria is in the process of dismantling of the regime of Boyko Borissov, while Moldova already got rid of its oligarch a few years ago and now the voters want his remaining influnce to be wiped away.

The Polish journalist Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat and her Bulgarian colleague Vladimir Mitev have established a podcast on international relations. In this intro they say a few words about their intentions.