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John J Mearsheimer: The Great Delusion

In his new essay for the New York-based Foreign Affairs magazine, Mearsheimer argues that the US and China are locked in a dangerous security competition, more perilous than the first Cold War. In essence, once China grew wealthy, a US-China cold war was inevitable. Had US policymakers understood this logic in the early 1990s, they would have tried to slow down Chinese growth and maximise the power gap between Beijing and Washington. However, the US did the opposite: it pursued a policy of engagement, which aimed to help China grow wealthier – based on the assumption that China would become a democracy and a responsible stakeholder, which would lead to a more peaceful world. Instead of fostering harmonious relations between China and the US, engagement led to an intense rivalry. Is Australia and the world in deep trouble? Absent a major internal Chinese crisis, Washington and Beijing are consigned to waging a dangerous security competition. Can we manage on the margins to prevent disaster? John Mearsheimer is professor of political science and international relations at the University of Chicago and author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001). He was a guest at the Centre for Independent Studies in 2019.

SUBSCRIBE This ISA 2022 Annual Convention roundtable, which was sponsored by ISA's International Security Studies Section (ISSS), aimed "to build synergies between two central debates in the field of Security Studies now occurring on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, analysts and scholars disagree on the prospects of a European “strategic autonomy,” namely the capacity of Europeans to autonomously provide for their own defense with little or no assistance from the US. In the United States, the grand strategy debate revolves around the contrasting positions of the proponents of ‘deep engagement’, for whom the United States should maintain current U.S. security commitments in Europe and elsewhere, and “restraint” scholars who argue that Europe is by far the easiest place for the United States to pull back from. Despite clear synergies, these two debates have so far largely proceeded in parallel silos. This roundtable aims to contribute advance the debates on the prospects for an autonomous European defense and for the continued US presence on the continent, and on their mutual interactions."

There is good reason to think China's rise might be the most important development in world politics during the 21st century. America is now the dominant great power in the Asia-Pacific region, and it is often a jealous god. That raises the question: is a powerful China likely to clash with the United States? Moreover, can a rising China live peacefully with its neighbors, including Japan, India, and Vietnam? Mearsheimer will argue that, if China's economic growth continues, it will build much more powerful military forces than it now has and attempt to dominate Asia the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere. However, the US and China's neighbors will go to great lengths to contain China and prevent it from becoming a regional hegemon--leading to an intense security competition in the Asia-Pacific region, with the ever-present danger of war. John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison distinguished service professor of political science and codirector of the Program on International Security Policy at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982. He graduated from West Point in 1970 and served five years as an officer in the US Air Force before receiving his PhD from Cornell in 1980. Winner of the 1985 Quantrell Award for distinguished teaching, Mearsheimer has written extensively about security issues and international politics, publishing numerous journal articles and five books, including the 2011 Why Leaders Lie: The Truth about Lying in International Politics, which has been translated into ten different languages.

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Professor John J. Mearsheimer will discuss the current Russian invasion on Ukraine whilst exploring the potential causes and consequences of the crisis. In this lecture, Prof. Mearsheimer will aim to focus on both the origins of the war in Ukraine and some of its most important consequences. He will argue that the crisis is largely the result of the West’s efforts to turn Ukraine into a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. Russian leaders viewed that outcome as an existential threat that had to be thwarted. While Vladimir Putin is certainly responsible for invading Ukraine and for Russia’s conduct in the war, Prof. Mearsheimer states that he does not believe he is an expansionist bent on creating a greater Russia. Regarding the war’s consequences, the greatest danger is that the war will go on for months if not years, and that either NATO will get directly involved in the fighting or nuclear weapons will be used — or both. Furthermore, enormous damage has already been inflicted on Ukraine. A prolonged war is likely to wreak even more devastation on Ukraine. Prof. John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of Chicago. Disclaimer -- The views and opinions expressed in this video are those of the speakers or authors in their personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Robert Schuman Centre or the European University Institute.

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