RobertHolmesPhD

by; Robert Ian Holmes PhD Bringing real empirical science into the climate debate. This is a podcast I did in February 2023 with Tom Nelson it can be found at; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkcYgEmC8fU&t=1s In this video I mainly delve into something which is ignored by the IPCC and the climate science community - CLIMATE CYCLES. CLIMATE CYCLES DOMINATE ALL CLIMATE CHANGES One cannot understand climate change or global warming properly, unless one knows about climate cycles. They have always dominated climate changes on Earth, and still do today. The four key climate cycles which are most relevant to the current period of global warming (which started in 1690) are the Yoshimura, De-Vries, Bond and the Bray. WHY CURRENT CLIMATE MODELS ARE WORTHLESS None of the above four climate cycles are in any IPCC report, or in any climate models; also missing from the climate models are accurate representations of clouds and convection. These problems, and the fact that climate models incorporate an incorrect null hypothesis of climate which includes a 'Greenhouse Gas Effect', mean that the models - and their results - are completely worthless. Yet the 'scenario projections' from these worthless models are what all Western governments are now relying on to form our energy and other policies. Slides for this presentation: https://tomn.substack.com/p/robert-ia... https://twitter.com/1000Frolly My Publications; https://www.researchgate.net/publicat... https://www.researchgate.net/publicat... https://www.researchgate.net/publicat... Current ResearchGate discussion on the null hypothesis is here; https://www.researchgate.net/post/CLI... CHAPTERS 00:00 Introduction 02:32 Presentation starts 03:22 16 cycles 05:53 Ignoring the past 09:05 Cosmic rays 13:18 Warmer oceans release CO2 17:03 Plants love CO2 19:35 CO2 as high or higher 1500 years ago? 20:43 Discrepancies between ice core and stomata CO2 data 22:28 Global temperature vs cloud cover 25:36 You can get warming from the sun when there's less solar activity 26:12 Cosmic rays and clouds 29:58 65 million years of climate change 31:47 Last 3M years: Very, very cold 33:10 Downwelling long wave radiation from the Sun 35:57 Net economic benefit up to 3C warming? 37:57 Global warming on Neptune and Pluto 42:20 Current high solar activity 45:45 Who really worked on critical IPCC attribution 49:14 Hockey stick 51:47 Cooling the past 54:52 Central England record 56:17 Climate sensitivity

Climate Scientist Dr Holmes presents the new science which completely demolishes the very existence of the so-called "Greenhouse Effect" through "Greenhouse Gases". All our efforts to "stop man-made climate change" through reducing our emissions of so-called "Greenhouse Gases" like CO2 or CH4 are therefore demonstrated to be futile, expensive and a foolish diversion from solving real problems. Presented here is an interview conducted by Ricky Petersen of 'Climate Realism' in Denmark. It can be viewed here; • Interview med Kli... To cite my published climate papers; 1) Holmes, R. I. (2018). Thermal Enhancement on Planetary Bodies and the Relevance of the Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law to the Null Hypothesis of Climate Change. Earth, 7(3), 107-123. (doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20180703.13) 2) Holmes, R. I. (2019). On the Apparent Relationship Between Total Solar Irradiance and the Atmospheric Temperature at 1 Bar on Three Terrestrial-type Bodies. Earth, 8(6), 346-351. (doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20190806.15) 3) Robert, I. H. (2018). Thermal Gradients on Planetary Bodies and the Molar Mass Ideal Gas Law. J Phys Astron, 6(1), 134. I see from the comments that some are still pretty confused! What my papers do is invalidate the "Greenhouse Gas Hypothesis" (the 'Greenhouse Effect') in two very different ways. It is correct to say that the molar mass version of the ideal gas law cannot be used to determine what causes a warming! However, it CAN be used (see my 2018 paper) to determine what is NOT causing a warming. This is where my first invalidation of the 'GHE' comes in - both through a terminal conflict (due to problems with the IPCC's so-called 'equilibration time'), and through the above; that is the non-appearance of a large anomalous change to gas pressure and/or density. This MUST happen if there is such a thing as a separate class of "Greenhouse gases" which cause anomalous warming - and yet it doesn't - and actually it can't, unless the IGL is wrong. Either the Ideal Gas Law is correct or the Greenhouse Effect is correct - both CANNOT be correct. My second invalidation of the GHE comes from atmospheric measurements at 1 bar - showing that different atmospheric percentages of 'GHG' do not affect temperature - only insolation does. See my last paper (2019). Other references; Climate cycles from my first paper HadCRUT 3 data from; https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data//d... 0.1 Bar graph is from; Robinson, T. D., & Catling, D. C. (2014). Common 0.1 [thinsp] bar tropopause in thick atmospheres set by pressure-dependent infrared transparency. Nature Geoscience, 7(1), 12-15. Formulas are from my cited papers. Planetary temps are from my paper 2. GHG & Albedo graphs are from my paper 2 Multi-climate cycle graph is from; Steinhilber, F., Abreu, J. A., Beer, J., Brunner, I., Christl, M., Fischer, H., . . . McCracken, K. G. (2012). 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(16), 5967-5971. Links to support my work; Patreon support; https://www.patreon.com/1000Frolly

This the fifth in my Climate Science series debunking the existence of a so-called 'greenhouse effect'. I demonstrate that the IPCC's relative forcing estimates for greenhouse gases and for natural forcings are incorrect. Climate Science 5 - The IPCCs Forcing Estimates are Wrong Too. (Apology - mistake at 11:05 it was Mt Tambora not Krakatoa which exploded in 1815.) REFERENCES; Neyman, J. (1937). X—outline of a theory of statistical estimation based on the classical theory of probability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. CMIP5 Models uses 73 and 42 models. Comparison with HadCRUT4 courtesy Ed Hawkins, 2013. Carbon-14 from the US Geological Survey, last 1,000 years. HadCRUT3 data; http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/tem... Scafetta, N. (2010). Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 72(13), 951-970. Foukal, P., at al (2006). Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate. Nature, 443(7108), 161-166. Svensmark, H. (2007b). Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges. Astronomy & Geophysics, 48(1), 1.18-11.24. Aizen, E. M., et al (2016). Abrupt and moderate climate changes in the mid-latitudes of Asia during the Holocene. Journal of glaciology, 62(233), 411-439. Rosenthal, Y., Linsley, B. K., & Oppo, D. W. (2013). Pacific ocean heat content during the past 10,000 years. Science, 342(6158), 617-621. Lüdecke, H.-J. (2011). Long-term instrumental and reconstructed temperature records contradict anthropogenic global warming. Energy & Environment, 22(6), 723-745. Rydval, M., et al. (2017). Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings. Climate Dynamics, 1-24. Zhang, H., at al (2015). Late Holocene climate change and anthropogenic activities in north Xinjiang: Evidence from a peatland archive, the Caotanhu wetland. The Holocene, 25(2), 323-332. Yan, H., et al. (2014). Higher sea surface temperature in the northern South China Sea during the natural warm periods of late Holocene than recent decades. Chinese science bulletin, 59(31), 4115-4122. Orth, R., et al (2016). Did European temperatures in 1540 exceed present-day records? Environmental Research Letters, 11(11), 114021. Kaniewski, D.et al (2011). The medieval climate anomaly and the Little Ice Age in coastal Syria inferred from pollen-derived palaeoclimatic patterns. Global and Planetary Change, 78(3), 178-187. Ladurie, E. L. R., Delibrias, G., & Ladurie, M. L. R. (1975). La forêt de Grindelwald: nouvelles datations. Paper presented at the Annales. Économies, Sociétés, Civilisations. Lamb, H. H. (2013). Climate: Present, Past and Future (Routledge Revivals): Volume 1: Fundamentals and Climate Now (Vol. 1): Routledge. Tozer, C. R., Vance, T. R., Roberts, J. L., Kiem, A. S., Curran, M. A., & Moy, A. D. (2016). An ice core derived 1013-year catchment-scale annual rainfall reconstruction in subtropical eastern Australia. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(5), 1703. He, Y., Liu, W., Zhao, C., Wang, Z., Wang, H., Liu, Y., . . . Liu, Z. (2013). Solar influenced late Holocene temperature changes Usoskin, I. G., Solanki, S., & Kovaltsov, G. (2007). Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: new observational constraints. Solanki, S. K., Usoskin, I. G., Kromer, B., Schüssler, M., & Beer, J. (2004). Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years. Nature, 431(7012), 1084-1087. Scafetta, N., & Willson, R. C. (2014). ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite validation versus TSI proxy models. Shapiro, A., Schmutz, W., Rozanov, E., Schoell, M., Haberreiter, M., Shapiro, A., & Nyeki, S. (2011). A new approach to the long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 529, A67. Herrera, V. V., Mendoza, B., & Herrera, G. V. (2015). Reconstruction and prediction of the total solar irradiance: Svensmark, H. (2007b). Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges. Astronomy & Geophysics, 48(1), 1.18-11.24. Shaviv, N. J. (2008). Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 113(A11). Neff, U., Burns, S., Mangini, A., Mudelsee, M., Fleitmann, D., & Matter, A. (2001). Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 ky ago. Nature, 411(6835), 290-293. Gouretski, V., Kennedy, J., Boyer, T., & Köhl, A. (2012). Consistent near‐surface ocean warming since 1900 in two largely independent observing networks. Lansner, F., & Pedersen, J. O. P. (2018). Temperature trends with reduced impact of ocean air temperature, Energy & Environment Ljungqvist, F. C. (2010). A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia. My Latest Paper; https://www.researchgate.net/publicat...

This the fourth in my Climate Science series debunking the so-called 'greenhouse effect'. Climate Science 4; The Ice Core Record of CO2 is "Probably Wrong" Too. Climate Science 1 revealed that our atmosphere is not like a greenhouse; instead it's the exact opposite - it's capable of expansion and convection. Climate Science 2 explored the science and the climate cycles which the IPCC forgot to mention, and how they are totally controlling all current climate change. We find that there actually is no 'extra' warming that we need to invoke a supposed 'greenhouse effect' from CO2 or other 'greenhouse gases' to fill. Climate Science 3 looked into the claim that Venus is hot because of the 'greenhouse effect' of carbon dioxide. Climate Science 4 looks into the ice core record for CO2, and critically examines whether it is correct or not. REFERENCES; UAH MSU satellite temperature graph, 1979-2019 EPICA DOME C ice core record, NOAA Luthi, 2008. Earth System Laboratory, Moana Loa CO2 record, 1958-2019n Petit, J.-R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile, I., . . . Delaygue, G. (1999). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature, 399(6735), 429-436. Shaviv, N. J., & Veizer, J. (2003). Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate? GSA today, 13(7), 4-10. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report 2014 Ciais, P., Sabine, C., Bala, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Canadell, J., . . . Heimann, M. (2014). Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 465-570): Cambridge University Press. Steinthorsdottir, M., Wohlfarth, B., Kylander, M. E., Blaauw, M., & Reimer, P. J. (2013). Stomatal proxy record of CO 2 concentrations from the last termination suggests an important role for CO 2 at climate change transitions. Quaternary science reviews, 68, 43-58. Barnola, J. M., Raynaud, D. Y. S. N., Korotkevich, Y. S., & Lorius, C. (1987). Vostok ice core provides 160,000-year record of atmospheric CO2. Nature, 329(6138), 408. Barnola, J., Anklin, M., Porcheron, J., Raynaud, D., Schwander, J., & Stauffer, B. (1995). CO2 evolution during the last millennium as recorded by Antarctic and Greenland ice. Tellus B, 47(1‐2), 264-272. McKay, C. P., Pollack, J. B., & Courtin, R. (1991). The greenhouse and antigreenhouse effects on Titan. Science, 253(5024), 1118-1121. Jaworowski, Z., Segalstad, T. V., & Ono, N. (1992). Do glaciers tell a true atmospheric CO 2 story? Science of the total environment, 114, 227-284. Kouwenberg, L. L. R. (2004). Application of conifer needles in the reconstruction of Holocene CO2 levels. Liu, Y., Cai, Q., Song, H., An, Z., & Linderholm, H. W. (2011). Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Chinese science bulletin, 56(28), 2986-2994. Fonselius, S., Koroleff, F., & WÄRME, K. E. (1956). Carbon dioxide variations in the atmosphere. Tellus, 8(2), 176-183. Slocum, G. (1955). Has the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere changed significantly since the beginning of the twentieth century. Month. Weather Rev, 83, 225-231. Lepori, L., Bussolino, G., Matteoli, E., & Spanedda, A. On the increase of fossil CO2 in the atmosphere. Segalstad, T. V. (1998). Carbon cycle modelling and the residence time of natural and anthropogenic atmospheric CO2. BATE, R.(Ed., 1998): Global Warming, 184-219. Quirk, T. (2009). Sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Energy & Environment, 20(1), 105-121. Harde, H. (2014). Advanced Two-Layer Climate Model for the Assessment of Global Warming by CO2. Harde, H. (2017). Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO 2 residence time in the atmosphere. Global and Planetary Change, 152, 19-26. Lepori, L., Bussolino, G., Matteoli, E., & Spanedda, A. On the increase of fossil CO2 in the atmosphere. Allen, M. R., Barros, V. R., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., Church, J. A., . . . Dubash, N. K. (2014). IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report-Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report. Essenhigh, R. H. (2009). Potential dependence of global warming on the residence time (RT) in the atmosphere of anthropogenically sourced carbon dioxide. Energy & Fuels, 23(5), 2773-2784. Lüdecke, H.-J., Weiss, C., & Hempelmann, A. (2015). Paleoclimate forcing by the solar De Vries/Suess cycle. Climate of the Past Discussions, 11(1), 279-305. Last Graph; Neff, U., Burns, S., Mangini, A., Mudelsee, M., Fleitmann, D., & Matter, A. (2001). Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 ky ago. Nature, 411(6835), 290-293. How to support me, and of course evidence-based science; Patreon support; https://www.patreon.com/1000Frolly Thank You! Dr Robert Ian Holmes

This the third in my Climate Science series debunking the so-called 'greenhouse effect'. Climate Science 1 revealed that our atmosphere is not like a greenhouse; instead it's the exact opposite - it's capable of expansion and convection. Climate Science 2 explored the science and the climate cycles which the IPCC forgot to mention, and how they are totally controlling all current climate change. We find that there actually is no 'extra' warming that we need to invoke a supposed 'greenhouse effect' from CO2 or other 'greenhouse gases' to fill. Climate Science 3 looks into the claim that Venus is hot because of the 'greenhouse effect' of carbon dioxide. The calculation I did for Venus at 11:30 also works out for Titan, (another body with a surface pressure of over 1 bar). I have done it here; Titan Tt =∜0.01089 x Te Tt = 0.323 x 288 Tt = 93 Kelvin This gives the calculated temperature on Titan at 1 bar as 93 Kelvin. Measurements by the lander Huygens in it's descent trough the Titan atmosphere, show that the temperature at 1 bar is around 90 Kelvin. The bottom 4km of the atmosphere is a super-critical fluid. Please read the definition here; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercr... YouTube Tip: As usual run at Settings; Playback Speed; Times 1.5 References; Hollingsworth, J., Young, R., Schubert, G., Covey, C., & Grossman, A. (2007). A simple‐physics global circulation model for Venus: Sensitivity assessments of atmospheric superrotation. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(5). Svedhem, H., Titov, D. V., Taylor, F. W., & Witasse, O. (2007). Venus as a more Earth-like planet. Nature, 450(7170), 629-632. Landis, G., Dyson, R., McGuire, M., Oleson, S., Schmidt, G., Grantier, J., . . . Fincannon, J. (2011). Human Telerobotic Exploration of Venus: A Flexible Path Design Study. Paper presented at the 49th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting including the New Horizons Forum and Aerospace Exposition. Moroz, V., Ekonomov, A., Moshkin, B., Revercomb, H., Sromovsky, L., Schofield, J., . . . Tomasko, M. G. (1985). Solar and thermal radiation in the Venus atmosphere. Advances in Space Research, 5(11), 197-232. Jelbring, H. (2003). The “Greenhouse Effect” as a Function of Atmospheric Mass. Energy & Environment, 14(2), 351-356. Pauli, W. (1988). Exclusion principle, Lorentz group and reflection of space-time and charge Wolfgang Pauli (pp. 459-479): Springer. How to support me, and of course evidence-based science; Patreon support; https://www.patreon.com/1000Frolly To cite my published climate papers; Holmes, R. I. (2018). Thermal Enhancement on Planetary Bodies and the Relevance of the Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law to the Null Hypothesis of Climate Change. Earth, 7(3), 107-123. Robert Ian Holmes, On the Apparent Relationship Between Total Solar Irradiance and the Atmospheric Temperature at 1 Bar on Three Terrestrial-type Bodies, Earth Sciences. Vol. 8, No. 6, 2019, pp. 346-351. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20190806.15 Holmes, R. I. (2017). Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law Points to a Very Low Climate Sensitivity. Earth Sciences, 6(6), 157. Links to my published climate papers; https://www.researchgate.net/publicat... https://www.researchgate.net/publicat... https://www.researchgate.net/publicat...

This the second in my Climate Science series debunking the greenhouse effect. Climate Science 1 revealed that our atmosphere is not like a greenhouse; instead it's the exact opposite - it's capable of expansion and convection. Here we explore the science and the climate cycles which the IPCC forgot to mention, and how they are totally controlling all current climate change. We find that there actually is no 'extra' warming that we need to invoke a supposed 'greenhouse effect' from CO2 or other 'greenhouse gases' to fill. Correction to CO2 forcing at 9:42 it is 0.01W/m2 not 0.1W/m2. References; Shaviv, N. J. (2003). The spiral structure of the Milky Way, cosmic rays, and ice age epochs on Earth. New Astronomy, 8(1), 39-77. Cederlöf, M. (2014). Using seasonal variations to estimate earth's response to radiative forcing. Shaviv, N. J. (2003). The spiral structure of the Milky Way, cosmic rays, and ice age epochs on Earth. New Astronomy, 8(1), 39-77. 65 million years of climate change (WIKI Commons) 5 million years of climate change (WIKI Commons) Loehle, C. (2007). A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-treering proxies. Energy & Environment, 18(7), 1049-1058. Usoskin, I. G., Solanki, S., & Kovaltsov, G. (2007). Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: new observational constraints. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 471(1), 301-309. Steinhilber, F., Abreu, J. A., Beer, J., Brunner, I., Christl, M., Fischer, H., . . . McCracken, K. G. (2012). 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(16), 5967-5971. Lüdecke, H.-J. (2011). Long-term instrumental and reconstructed temperature records contradict anthropogenic global warming. Energy & Environment, 22(6), 723-745. C-14 record from the USGA Lüdecke, H.-J., Hempelmann, A., & Weiss, C. (2013). Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records. Climate of the Past, 9(1), 447-452. Sromovsky, L., Fry, P., Limaye, S., & Baines, K. (2003). The nature of Neptune’s increasing brightness: Evidence for a seasonal response. Icarus, 163(1), 256-261. Schmude Jr, R. W., Baker, R. E., Fox, J., Krobusek, B. A., Pavlov, H., & Mallama, A. (2016). The secular and rotational brightness variations of Neptune. arXiv preprint arXiv:1604.00518. How to support me, and of course evidence-based science; Patreon support; https://www.patreon.com/1000Frolly To cite my published climate papers; Holmes, R. I. (2018). Thermal Enhancement on Planetary Bodies and the Relevance of the Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law to the Null Hypothesis of Climate Change. Earth, 7(3), 107-123. Robert Ian Holmes, On the Apparent Relationship Between Total Solar Irradiance and the Atmospheric Temperature at 1 Bar on Three Terrestrial-type Bodies, Earth Sciences. Vol. 8, No. 6, 2019, pp. 346-351. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20190806.15 Holmes, R. I. (2017). Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law Points to a Very Low Climate Sensitivity. Earth Sciences, 6(6), 157. Links to my published climate papers; https://www.researchgate.net/publicat... https://www.researchgate.net/publicat... https://www.researchgate.net/publicat...

First in my series of climate science videos, this is a very basic introduction as to why the IPCC and "97%" of climate scientists have got it wrong. Subsequent videos delve deeper into the subject, and have many references to the scientific literature. This video is the first in a series which will outline the scientific reasons why a new null hypothesis of climate change is needed, and what is wrong with the current one, which assumes a 33c surface enhancement from the so-called "Greenhouse Effect" of "Greenhouse Gases". it will be shown that there is another cause of this surface thermal enhancement, and that the so-called "Greenhouse Gases" cannot be responsible for it. The 'greenhouse effect' is where a 33c atmospheric thermal enhancement at the Earth's surface, is alleged to be caused by a class of gases called 'greenhouse gases'. I will show, in this series, that the claimed 33c enhancement from those gases does not exist. References; Holmes, R. I. (2018). Thermal Enhancement on Planetary Bodies and the Relevance of the Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law to the Null Hypothesis of Climate Change. Earth, 7(3), 107-123. How to support me, and of course evidence-based science; Patreon support; https://www.patreon.com/1000Frolly My paper related to the pressure/TSI relationship between Venus, Earth and Titan has now been published; Robert Ian Holmes, On the Apparent Relationship Between Total Solar Irradiance and the Atmospheric Temperature at 1 Bar on Three Terrestrial-type Bodies, Earth Sciences. Vol. 8, No. 6, 2019, pp. 346-351. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20190806.15 https://www.researchgate.net/publicat... To cite my published climate papers; Holmes, R. I. (2018). Thermal Enhancement on Planetary Bodies and the Relevance of the Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law to the Null Hypothesis of Climate Change. Earth, 7(3), 107-123. Robert Ian Holmes, On the Apparent Relationship Between Total Solar Irradiance and the Atmospheric Temperature at 1 Bar on Three Terrestrial-type Bodies, Earth Sciences. Vol. 8, No. 6, 2019, pp. 346-351. doi: 10.11648/j.earth.20190806.15 Holmes, R. I. (2017). Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law Points to a Very Low Climate Sensitivity. Earth Sciences, 6(6), 157. Links to my published climate papers; https://www.researchgate.net/publicat... https://www.researchgate.net/publicat... https://www.researchgate.net/publicat...