Randoctor

establishing Zika’s first-time-ever presence in Brazil, in early 2015– prior to any knowledge of any microcephaly-increase. In the words of one of the central figures, Recife’s Dr. Carlos Brito (2015): I believe [that 80% of Pernambuco’s dengue cases are in reality] Zika. We investigated 1,100 (dengue) patients . Of this total, 81% met clinical criteria for Zika. His confidant, Dr. Kleber Luz, an infectious disease expert in Natal earlier had also recharacterized dengue patients, retroactively, as Zika. "We collected more than 500 samples, and we insisted that it was not dengue, that it was something urgent and new," says Luz. After ruling out other options, (Luz and Brito) concluded it had to be Zika. There were some behind-the-scenes doubts, in government and the academy. Drs. Brito and Luz contacted Brazil's Ministry of Health, but the Brazilian government wasn't convinced. Whatever was going around had no dangerous symptoms or long-lasting effects, and people weren't dying. So the government chose not to implement mandatory reporting for the infection, and when the summer of 2015 ended, so did any worries about Zika. "There was enormous resistance to the idea that it could be Zika.” Frustrated, the doctors decided to form their own group to study the virus.

We discuss the variant-sub strains of Covid, the UK, South Africa, the Brazil versions, and how they have played out. UK numbers have gone vastly down essentially to zero, with a vaccine, South Africa numbers have gone down substantially WITHOUT a vaccine, and Brazil's are still rather large, so the variant differences don't seem to cause that much difference overall. It seems that situations are manageable or not depending on other circumstances. Brazil got a late start with coronavirus net probably factors mostly into the higher numbers currently. Here are some of the links covered tonight. https://www.facebook.com/randall.bock1/posts/10225730956963376 https://uk.news.yahoo.com/joins-europe-merck-recommending-against-150854265.html?guccounter=1 https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator https://nypost.com/2021/03/30/cdc-director-rochelle-walensky-cant-face-another-covid-surge/ https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death https://swprs.org/face-masks-evidence/ https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/10/israel-says-600-children-given-covid-jab-had-no-serious-side-effects https://theconversation.com/did-the-uk-outsmart-the-eu-over-astrazeneca-vaccines-157926 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/a-guide-to-emerging-sars-cov-2-variants-68387 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.27.21254483v1.full.pdf

40% of Covid fatalities in Scotland are in those 85 years of age and above, Less than 2% of the population. The ~55% of the population 50 years and below (and healthy) are at essentially zero risk of fatality. Here are some of the links https://www.facebook.com/randall.bock1/posts/10225730956963376 https://uk.news.yahoo.com/joins-europe-merck-recommending-against-150854265.html?guccounter=1 https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator https://nypost.com/2021/03/30/cdc-director-rochelle-walensky-cant-face-another-covid-surge/ https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death https://swprs.org/face-masks-evidence/ https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/10/israel-says-600-children-given-covid-jab-had-no-serious-side-effects https://theconversation.com/did-the-uk-outsmart-the-eu-over-astrazeneca-vaccines-157926 https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/a-guide-to-emerging-sars-cov-2-variants-68387 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.27.21254483v1.full.pdf

2016 New England Journal of medicine article states: "Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy has been linked to birth defects, yet the magnitude of risk remains uncertain. Investigators studying the 2013–2014 Zika outbreak in French Polynesia estimated that the risk of microcephaly due to ZIKV infection in the first trimester of pregnancy was 0.95% (95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 1.91), on the basis of eight microcephaly cases identified retrospectively in a population of approximately 270,000 people with an estimated rate of ZIKV infection of 66%." N Engl J Med 2016; 375:1-4 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmp1605367

When we get a cancer diagnosis, our world is upended, we are confused and almost at sea. In such a situation sailors looked to the stars, not zodiac, but the fixed celestial positions to guide themselves home. How do we decide which are the true North Stars, the ones that will get us back to where we need to be most quickly and with the least damage. We also look at some "snake oil" claims and some of the standard treatments.

Keeping up with Covid. Tune in, good stuff. How do things look in the world and in the world of Covid? We will talk about vaccines, strategies, relative risk. Who looks at Covid-risks more accurately, the left or the right? And how close is either group to reality? Apparently people have gained weight (in developed countries) during Covid. Has that helped their health-risk? How will other countries, less developed and hoping to become developed do? Test case: Ghana. Coming around a little bit on the mRNA vaccines. A few key questions, for most the actual duration, half-life of mRNA in our bodies. And (with humor) should you get a nose mask?

Do the benefits of genetic testing outweigh the costs and when should it be done? How important is genetic history in determining cancer risk? Discussing the relative rates of hereditary, versus replicative or environmental risk-factors for cancer. Tomasetti, Vogelstein stochastic model of cancer incidence (cover photo). We discuss the shock of getting a cancer diagnosis, the Kubler Ross phases between denial and ultimate acceptance. How does one navigate the diagnosis on the way to proper, efficient, efficacious, and timely therapy?

Show, by show, what you need to know! (about cancer) First episode, we will cover the basics: although there's been no "cure for cancer", in a sense already there may be. Were going to give you perspective on what's been going on with cancer, what is the "best practice" to help minimize, avoid and (God forbid) treat.

Zika/microcephaly; the world's previous (and now forgotten) great pandemic caused huge disruptions in travel, behaviors, pregnancies, business, and politics. In the five years since, Zika has effectively "disappeared". Let's look back and find why. Also, please connect to our Facebook page via: https://fb.watch/4maPQ4-Rbl/

Einstein required a solar eclipse to prove General Relativity: the sun's incredibly bright light otherwise blots out the visual information behind it. So too with current SARS/Covid's obscuring the valid useful information from the prior (2003) SARS epidemic. A full locust-cycle of 17 years passed in the interim. Did the Chinese make vaccines during that time? (yes) Did they have success? (Well, no coronavirus until this last leak, so yes) Were there side effects or problems? (Very likely) Did they immunize the population? Did that play into China's low numbers outside of Wuhan? Was that hidden? (Unknown) Everyone speaks about the "new normal" after THIS Coronavirus, but is that a valid worry if 17 years went by since the previous? (Probably not) This is very much unlike influenza which has a natural zoonnotic (domestic animal proximity) reservoir with humans: Chinese farmers' pigs' being sheltered indoors in the winter. The same doesn't hold true with coronavirus' animal hosts: pangolins and bats. So why worry? (Well, there are interests built around worrying) Using the same "solar eclipse" effect of blotting out current coronavirus barrage of information helps us look back at what went right and wrong (potentially) with the prior SARS-1 vaccines. Should this give us any concern and/or guidance in choosing from the potentially multiple different vaccines which will be presented to us. The decision matrix for a 15-year-old, 35-year-old, 55-year-old, 85-year-old: between potential problems from a vaccine and potential problems from the illness itself differs vastly. It's not a "one-size-fits-all" approach, nor should it be treated that way. And on the other end the vaccines, especially when we consider the Indian and Chinese simpler but less effective (but potentially long-term safer) vaccine variants: which one is the right one for you?

Never before has there been an mRNA-mediated vaccine, moreover with expedited, abbreviated phase III human safety trials. mRNA vaccines have YOU producing spike protein for (potentially) months. Can this overstimulation of the immune system bring longer-term problems? Nobody really can say. Understanding that there are inherent risks from ANY vaccine – and essentially nearly ZERO risk from Covid 19 for those healthy and young– there may be an age intersection-point at which below which the vaccine is MORE dangerous than the coronavirus itself. Let's try to figure that out. Options: Are two vaccines necessary for everybody? No INFLUENZA this year! The same mitigation protocol that couldn't stop coronavirus stopped influenza? Or has been there been blurring of the lines? Covid 19 numbers continue to drop. Let's compare, once again, lockdown states versus non-lockdown states. Should schools have closed? Should they stay closed?

With common sense and common language, we uncover common misconceptions of the (un)common-cold (commonly called Covid), we have in common. Discussed: Cases down 77%. The lowest since October, 15% of the population vaccinated and other background herd immunity. Best use case for Covid, active octogenarians who are free once again to socialize. The worst thing since World War II?: Doubtful must consider the future age-possibilities, without seeming to utilitarian The upcoming decline in economic possibility, diminished growth as a result of overspending, stimulus, cutting back the economy – stopping dating, sttopping marriage, declining birthrate. Any reason to wear a mask after being vaccinated? Hint: no. Was there a Tampa Bay super spreading event? After the Super Bowl? No. (Ditto, Sturgis) If you had one year to live, would you spend it isolated from your family, even at risk of Covid? Have we given people who might be making those type of choices the information correctly? One mask, two masks, three masks! Unless you have a snorkel, you're going to be getting air from the surrounding "soup" of aerosol and microbes. If you can smell say "rotten fish" from across the room, what makes you think that a mask could stop a few micron sized virus? We take a look around the world, Sweden versus Israel, lockdowns versus not. Is herd immunity (despite Sweden success) getting a bad name? Some recent deaths, young men in the neighborhood. Diseases of despair on the rise, suicides have doubled Covid is a different issue for the very young versus very old. 1000 or 10,000 times difference in case totality rate There should be an algorithm for figuring out your rationale for taking vaccine. Very different set of circumstances at age 25 versus 75 for instance. If the vaccine (like any vaccine) has some small chance of long-term illness or even death, the that should be weighed against the nearly 0 likelihood of Covid fatality at these younger age groups, the reverse obtains at older ages. Taking one's mask off should be the appropriate reward and incentive for vaccination. Do politicians revel in the power in controlling our lives, micromanaging? Have we let them? Ultimately it's your responsibility to "do you". Learn up, make the best decisions.

Maybe you've heard, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. Tom also is a smart guy, and in context did not wear a mask, going into the stadium and during the ceremonies. Apparently Tampa's mayor's more concerned about illegal hugs than illegal drugs. Although she goes around ignoring her own statutes, par for the course. Sweden is the "winner" across the zero-threshold of coronavirus deaths, first in class, first in Europe. Vaccine news, Israel's finding it harder to scare up "customers". You knew this was coming: The heavy hand of government's forcing people to do what theoretically should be voluntary: "Don’t want to vaccinate? Israel set to limit access to cafes, culture and more" The kerfuffle at the New York Times. Chief Science Editor Donald McNeil was the right man to fire, but got fired for completely the wrong reasons. We go over his March 2020 importations importuning for United States ago all "medieval" of the virus, and duplicate communist Cuba, and the PRC's draconian lockdown stylings. This is how we got in this mess in part. False, exaggerated wailings and gnashing of teeth, either done out of fear or misdirection. After all it was very effective in the ultimate goal: mail-in ballots. Hundreds of Thousands of Israelis Have Said No to the COVID-19 Vaccine: Why Are They Waiting? A return to almost-normalcy relies on the vast majority of Israelis over age 50 getting vaccinated for COVID-19, but it isn't happening. New studies explain who isn't getting the shot, and why

Coronavirus case numbers and fatalities are down in the United States enormously. Are we ready to declare "victory" and get on with our business? Well if Sweden is an example, no. They done the best in Europe, yet "the beatings will continue until morale improves". There are few other jokes that come to mind unfortunately. But people who pursue power, once they get it well, they may enjoy it. Italy has temperature sensitive drones pursuing people. Denmark wants a Corona passport. The United States wants to cut off Florida, yet open the border to Mexico. Florida's been doing a good job, Mexico, well will give them a pass, but if you worried about coronavirus contagion, you would probably do the opposite. What is "herd immunity", how do we reach it? At what level? When did become a bad word? Why is it that every simple inexpensive choice has been thrown aside, for a time consuming more risky one? Why do we air on the side of finding Covid deaths, and close things down for a disease which is only 1/3000 (0.03%) fatal– yet, downplay any vaccine or second vaccine reactions or deaths? No animal studies? No problem. Why are people dissing the United States' vaccine creation and distribution? We led the world as we do with other illnesses in finding the answer: in this case in terms of treatment possibilities, medications, refinements and hospital care,, vaccine creation, innovation etc. Mr. Biden claims that there was no vaccine distribution before him, yet he got the vaccine before presidency.

Other topics covered: The perpetual emergency stratified risk, which vaccine is the best for you. The N95 Catch-22 One mask, two masks, red mask, blue masks? China's economy grew, G7's shrank. What's up with that? Sweden versus the world! Catching up on Nigeria, Israel, France, UK. Israel's second spike after vaccinations. "Viruses gonna virus". Masks after immunity? Keeping our powder dry. Even stipulating Covid-19 was not human-engineered, there are lessons for future biowarriors, biowarfare, and our potential defense. The hidden antimicrobials amongst us. Generic drugs' off label usage has been assiduously avoided and in fact pilloried: HCQ, Ivermectin. Safe but effective? Safe but ineffective? The "right to try" should not apply only to cancer patients. What's the life expectancy of a nursing home resident? In general that is. Median is five months, averages 14 months. 53% die within six months. That's without coronavirus. Joe Biden's mask? After immunity

Double masks? Triple masks? The vaccine is on the way out, numbers are going down. image credit Copyright: ©ink drop - stock.adobe.com

Will the vaccine work against mutant strains of Coronavirus? We are closer to the beginning of the end than the end of the beginning. Numbers are dropping. How much vaccination is necessary to lower the R factor? Probably lower than you think. Outside of Wuhan) How did China avoid having coronavirus cases? Did they in actuality? Is this factitious? Does a top-down approach work? Did they operate at "warp speed?" Did China create and distribute vaccine after the original SARS, 2003? Trump administration scorecard on coronavirus response, operation warp speed, applying federalism to public health. The New York Times view of Mr. Trump's handling of the virus. What would a Biden administration have done differently?

Vaccines have been deployed. What are the results so far? Would be the best and most efficacious pattern of dispersal? In the laboratory of ideas, Indonesia is taking a different approach, vaccinating, preferentially the busiest and most active individuals rather than the elderly (first). Does everyone need two doses? Does everyone need a full dose? If shortage situations existed or persisted, what would be the best (game theory) strategy?

Is there underlying coronavirus immunity in East Asia? For instance why did Peru do so much worse than Vietnam? All throughout East Asia there is very little in the way of coronavirus fatality versus other parts of the world. Has there been background coronavirus to which the population has gradually become immune? Herd immunity has been downplayed, but it seems to be the real difference between different countries' different outcomes. Sweden and Italy are exiting the so-called quote second wave" of coronavirus while France and Germany, UK still struggle. Likely this is because Sweden and Italy had more penetration of coronavirus early on in the spring. Also, what should I take the vaccine" people ask. Well the answer (as with many other questions) is, "IT DEPENDS!". Try to stratify and differentiate your own personal risk based on age and health factors. It is a 1000 fold difference between the younger age groups and the elderly in terms of coronavirus case fatality risk and likelihood.

A medical moment: Covid-19, coronavirus update, discussion, review. Topics covered: CASES, cases, cases! We have more cases because we do more testing. Hospitalizations and fatalities are better measures of a disease's severity. The locked liquor cabinet. When we're not supposed to look at or think about certain aspects of coronavirus, the natural impulse is to query, "why?" Why were off-label uses of known, reasonably safe medications discouraged for coronavirus? Vaccine talk: How do they work? Who should get them first? Are there different types of vaccines? When did China have and deploy one? Which vaccine is the best? What percentage of the population vaccinated or immune constitutes adequate barrier in preventing pandemic spread? The "better helmet"/ riskier behavior paradox. Does this apply to masks? North versus South! Battleground Dakotas: North Dakota did lockdowns and mask-mandates yet perfomed no better than South Dakota which did not. Is there a "super mutant" coronavirus? (United Kingdom)? Is vitamin D an actual preventive for coronavirus severity? Do our leaders obey their own mask, lockdown, distancing statutes? The latest, Dr. Birx. Separately, what can the NBA players' attitude toward the virus tell us? Have any of them gotten actually ill? What do life insurance sales tell us about actuarial risk to coronavirus? With no immunity either, which would you rather not see: Spanish flu or coronavirus? The case is made.

The covid vaccine(s). A Christmas miracle? Well, some kind of miracle to get it years ahead of what the experts had predicted. We discuss. Aspects of the vaccine, how best to plan whether you should rush to get it. What are the benefits, risks etc. How does our covert equation change with the vaccine, and in retrospect how should we have played our hand not knowing when the vaccine would have appeared – that is to say last spring and summer and even fall, should we have done things differently? We go over these and many other interesting topics on this coronavirus conversation, originally seen Facebook live, 12, 30, 2020

How much of mask-wearing OUTDOORS is scientifically proven useful? Zero. We go over the Danmask-19 study, and whether those currently immune should continue to wear masks. Additionally, there have been ZERO on-field episodes of coronavirus, Covid-19, transmission. This, with NFL players in huddles, tackles and fumble-piles in extreme proximity with no masks. The Baltimore Ravens team Covid-19 pathway was tested genomically and shows (once again) the only transmissions were from close indoor contact. Is there any point aside from virtue signaling to wear a mask outdoors?

The "second wave" of coronavirus in Europe. Cases are showing up throughout, but Sweden spared a second wave of fatalities. Why is that? Well they didn't do severe lockdowns on the first round and likely have a higher background herd immunity than Germany, France, Italy etc. We also discuss relative risk, for instance if you're young, riding a bicycle a few miles per day is more dangerous than this year's potential exposure to coronavirus. "Focused protection", protecting our elderly, letting the young and healthy keep society and themselves going. Is there a rationale for wearing masks outdoors? Should you wear a mask once you are immune? Keeping kids from school will have huge social repercussions, more so for poor families'. Do our rulers even believe in the lockdowns when they don't follow them themselves?

Medical overview of what constitutes a #coronavirus "case" epidemiologically. Should we be concerned about the increase in number of cases? How does the severity of coronavirus rank against the more severe influenza's, e.g. 1917's Spanish flu? Why has the case fatality rate gone down by an order of magnitude in only six months? A little basic common sense applied to what has become, surprisingly, less well understood over time: coronavirus. Please listen in