New Hampshire

Summary: President Trump came within 3,000 votes of flipping New Hampshire in 2016, but manages to lose it nearly as bad as John McCain did in 2008, as same-day voter registration and other other maladies push the Granite State heavily to the left. In reality, New Hampshire appears to be one of the purest tossups on the 2020 map.

Donald Trump doubles up his own net new votes from 2016, but manages to be on the wrong side of the first Democrat majority in 56 years, the product of Boston area ballot trafficking and same day voter registration woes specific to the Granite State.