“We’re Going To Go Bankrupt” PREPARE! (Robert Kiyosaki)
In today's market conditions we're seen a lot of things that remind us of 2008. In this video Robert Kiyosaki talks about the current financial system and why we need to prepare!
Robert Kiyosaki: is an American businessman and author. Kiyosaki is the founder of Rich Global LLC and the Rich Dad Company, a private financial education company that provides personal finance and business education to people through books and videos.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
How To Make $1000 A Month Through Dividend Investing
I guess the dream for a lot of people is to make a lot of income passively, through dividends. In this video I want to talk deeper about reaching the goal of receiving $1,000 a month in dividends and how it can be achieved...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Peter Lynch: How To Invest For Beginners
In this video Peter Lynch offers 8 investing rules for all beginner investors to follow. They're simple but the hard thing is sticking to them!
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Robert Kiyosaki: The Biggest Stock Market Crash Is On Us NOW!
In this video Robert Kiyosaki talks about his opinions on the stock market and why he thinks a crash is on us now!
►Big Thanks to Robert Kiyosaki!
https://www.youtube.com/user/RDdotcom
Robert Kiyosaki: Robert Toru Kiyosaki is an American businessman and author. Kiyosaki is the founder of Rich Global LLC and the Rich Dad Company, a private financial education company that provides personal finance and business education to people through books and videos. A great mind in this day and age that we can all learn from...
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My 2nd Investing YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6qBTYqQpXqLutg39ZgXcJQ
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
7 Stocks To Buy In 2021
In this video we go over 7 stocks to buy during the later stages of 2020. Although the market is pricey there is always opportunities!
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When we analyze the type of market that we’re in, there’s pretty much only 1 thing that we can say for certain. No one knows exactly what’s going to happen next, the one thing that we do know is that it will be volatile. As a lot of you guys know, I’ve dedicated a good portion of my life, to learning the art of investing, and I will say this, there’s always opportunities in the market. And that’s the reason why I’m making this video. I want to show you where I see potential opportunity, for this volatile, weird market that we are in. I’ve got 7 stocks that I need to show you guys… Now each of these stocks, I’ve got very specific reasons for owning them, so pay careful attention.
Stock 1: Berkshire Hathaway
Now, I just want to say off the bat, do your own research before you purchase any of these stocks, don’t be that guy who just buys it, and doesn’t even understand what they own. At the end of the day if you do that you will lose…
Let’s kick this off, Warren Buffett, my opinion the greatest investor of all-time. However these days a lot of people are saying he’s lost his touch. They’re saying this is the new era of investing, where times have changed and things like social media and the internet have taken over. They think now Cathy Wood is the new top investor.
However I’ll say this never write off Warren Buffett and his company Berkshire Hathaway. Don’t forget to do your history homework, they said the same thing about Buffett and his company back in the late 90’s. They said it’s the dotcom era now, and value investing stocks like Berkshire are not the way of the future.
Then what happened Berkshire grew to be one of the biggest companies in the world, it’s now valued at over $500 billion dollars. If you want to buy a piece of this great company it’s price is just under $220 per share.
Also another thing to remember is that Buffett company thrives, generally through tougher times. He’s a more conservative investor. So maybe he hasn’t done as well as high growth investor have during this bull market, but I think over the next 10 years Berkshire will be in a market where they thrive. Buffetts certainly done this numerous times in the past, and his value investing strategy over time wins…
Stock 2: Upwork
This is a company that I really like over the next 5,10, 15 years time. Especially with the unique economy that we’re in. You see Upwork, is a place where businesses go to hire online, and people go to work online.
Now think about it, how many jobs can no be done simply through the internet. A lot of jobs these days you don’t need to go to an office 9-5, no you can just do it from home. And we’ve seen this especially with the lockdown and the amount of people who can do their work just through a computer.
Now Upwork is a company that is dramatically benefiting from this change. They’re the ones you go to if you’re looking for a job online. And they get a certain cut of the revenue. This is why I could see Upwork being a lot bigger company than it is today in the future…
Upwork sells for pretty much $15 a share. Their market cap is $1.8 billion dollars so they’re nowhere near the size of those big tech giants, but they do have the potential of being one in the future…
Stock 3: Alibaba Stock
Now I’ve been studying China, a fair amount recently and you can’t deny they’re a fast growing country when it comes to economics and business. Ray Dalio he’s noticed the exact same pattern as me, in-fact he went as far as writing an article of the new world order, where China becomes the global superpower.
Now, whether China becomes the global superpower, ok, that’s something to be debated back and forth but nevertheless, I want a piece of China’s growth.
And we can all do this through owning Chinese stocks… One of my favorite stocks in China, goes by the name of Alibaba...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Stock Market Crash 2.0: Do This Now!
There are a lot of investors predicting / worried about a 2nd market crash coming in 2020. In this video I want to go over the chances of this, what the metrics say and how to prepare...
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2020 we had one of the sharpest and quickest market crashes that we’ve ever seen. Stocks fell by 33% in just 1 month and investors were panicking big time… That is until the Federal Reserve, made the decision to print a lot of money, give it to the big businesses and to the people, which helped bail out the stock market. Right now stocks, are sitting around all-time highs at prices we’ve never seen before. This has left a lot of investors and myself included, asking the question is there going to be another stock market crash coming around the corner? And, if so, what do we do about this? That’s 2 very good questions that we’re going to delve a bit deeper into…
The first thing you need to realise is that just because market prices are at all-time highs, it does not necessarily mean that they are overpriced. To work out if they’re overpriced, you need to be looking at more than just 1 factor. Now one of the best ways to get a gauge, for if things are overpriced, is to look at the shiller p/e ratio…
The shiller p/e ratio is a valuation measure applied to the S & P 500. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings adjusted for inflation. Simply put it’s a great way of measuring valuations for United States companies as a whole. I’ve seen a lot of smart investors who rave on about this metric. So let’s take a look at where it stands currently…
At the moment the shiller p/e ratio reads 31.47. So that’s a lot higher than the all-time historical average which is 17.1. It’s almost double…
Now I don’t know if you guys remember black Tuesday, which of course you don’t you weren’t alive then. But the shiller p/e currently is around the level that it was on that very dark day, where the market crashed… In fact the only time that the shiller p/e ratio was higher than it is today, was back in the technology crash in 2000. Apart from that the shiller p/e has never been higher.
Basically at least according to the shiller p/e ratio, the market has not been this pricey ever before apart from the 2000 dotcom crash.
So that is one indicator that points towards stocks been expensive. Another indicator that I’ve already mentioned before on this channel, is the Buffett indicator, which tells a similar story…
The Buffett indicator is currently sitting at 131.4%.
Anything above 134% is considered significantly overvalued, so we’re getting close to that stage in the market…
So prices are high, I think it’s pretty fair to say that. Another consideration, that should come into the equation is the national debt that we’re currently in. As of right now, the USA has $26.7 trillion dollars of debt on their balance sheet. So you need to ask yourself, how much more debt can they afford to have. Can they continue to keep paying stimulus checks & bailing out businesses if they’re already got so much debt on their hands. It’s just something to take into consideration.
Also corporate debt, is at all-time highs as well… It’s currently sitting at $16.8 trillion. So remember a stock is a corporation, so it’s the stock market that holds most of this debt. Now can those companies in the stock market afford those high debt levels. Well at the moment, it appears like they can.
But that’s because interest rates are at close to the lowest we’ve ever seen. 0.25% right now, they can’t really go any lower. But if they do go higher, which is basically the only direction it can go, well I think they’ll be a few stocks out there, that will be struggling…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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China Is Quietly Becoming The New Superpower of the World
China is growing at a much faster rate of clips economically than the USA, so much so that they've almost caught up. Let's discuss the possibilities of China becoming the next superpower of the world...
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1898 was a special year for the United States. It was the year, they won the Spanish American-war, they gained temporary control of Cuba, and a strong influence across nations throughout the globe. It was the start of USA being the superpower nation of the world. Since then they have grown and enjoyed a relatively strong period of being the nation at the top.
However fast forward to 2020, and it’s been over 100 years, of dominance by the United States. However there is a nation that is quietly building it’s economy, it’s power, and it’s influence across the globe and we’re coming to a stage where they’re almost as big as the United States. I’m talking about China of course.
Ok, so let’s look at some hard factual data. The best way to measure, how strong a country is becoming is through GDP growth. Gross domestic product, it basically measures how much a country is producing in any single given year.
Now if we go back over the past 10 or so years. We can see that China’s economy is growing at a much higher rate of knots, compared to the USA’s.
You know in 2019 China had GDP growth of 6.1%, compared to the USA’s 2.3%. That’s almost 3X the amount of growth. (1 please use website listed below)
And these big discrepancies, in terms of economic growth has been going on for more than 30 years, to the point where China is getting within distance of catching up now. The USA’s GDP as per the latest figures is $21.44 trillion dollars compared to China’s $14.14 trillion. This means China are now within $7.3 trillion dollars in nominal GDP of catching up…
But unlikely the USA they’re growing at a faster rate of knots.
This is why you’ve got groups of people predicting that by 2030, China will overtake the USA in terms of total production…
You know, it’s very important to take a step back and look at both countries as a whole…China has a population of around 1.4 billion. The USA’s population is around 330 million. That means china has over 4X the amount of people compared to the USA. Essentially China can have 4 people working for every 1 of USA’s person. This is a huge reason why they are growing at a much higher rate of clips compared to the USA. They just have more manpower.
And it’s the reason why you have people like Elon Musk predicting China’s economy to be at least twice the size of the states.
Musk said “A thing that will feel pretty strange is that the Chinese economy is probably going to be at least twice as big as the United States’ economy, maybe three times,”.
“If you have half the resources of the counterparty then you better be real innovative, if you’re not innovative, you’re going to lose. It would only require getting to a GDP per capita half the size the United States for their economy to be twice the size of ours,”.
At the end of the day China just has more to work with compared to the current superpower the USA. It’s because of all of these resources that they’re able to produce so much and sell a lot more than they need to bring in.
I mean just think about how many times you go to the shop to buy some random item, it could be any item, then you look on the back of it and say’s “made in China”. There’s a reason for that. It’s because China has the manpower and resources to produce all of that.
The U.S tend to have a massive deficit each year in terms of trade. These are figures from 2013 to 2018, so they’re a tad old, but as you can see the exporting is around 3 to 4X less, than then the amount they import (3).
This is because China are so good at producing things, and producing them for cheap prices.
And it’s not just the U.S, that China are good at selling to. It’s all around the world. And basically what this does for China, is it brings them a lot of money…
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Burry Is Preparing For A Market Crash. Here's His Most Recent Investments
Let's go over the stocks that Michael Burry (from the big-short) is buying and selling. I wan't to show you how he's organised his portfolio in a very unique way for today's market conditions...
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Anyone who has watched the movie the big short will know that Michael Burry is the king at making money in a stock market crash. The 2008 financial crisis, well, let’s just say he made a lot of money. Now, I don’t know if you guys have been paying close attention to what Burry’s been doing or saying, but it has got us investors slightly concerned. Let me update you…
Burry said index fund inflows are now distorting prices for stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDO purchases did for subprime mortgages more than a decade ago. The flows will reverse at some point, he said, and “it will be ugly” when they do. “Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be,”…
So as you would expect, after reading Burry’s comments on the market, that got me interested. What is burry himself actually doing when it comes to his own investments. What I found was fascinating. I want to show you this…
So this recent quarter in 2020, Burry made 34 different stock moves. Now some of these moves were minor, we’re going to look at his 8 biggest stock buys and his 8 biggest stock sells. Basically all the important ones…
His largest stock sale was Jack in the box, ticker symbol Jack. That’s obviously the American fast food restaurant and Burry got completely rid of that position. he sold all, 300,000 shares, worth 12.24% of his portfolio.
His next largest stock sale, let’s just say Mark Zuckerberg would not be too happy with. He got rid of all of his Facebook shares, which used to make up 11.65% of the portfolio.
The 3 positions that Burry reduced and did not completely sell out of were… 1 Gamestop where he sold 8.44% of his portfolio worth, 2 Qorvo 9.11%, and Maxar technologies, 9.48%...
The last companies that he sold completely out of were, Boeing, no real surprise there, Tailored brands a company which Jeremy from Financial Education used to love, and Michaels company the provider of art and décor items…
So there you have it, he sold almost 75% of his portfolio and he’s completely allocated it, into other investments. It’s a move that a lot of stockholders would be afraid to make, but Burrys never gonna back down on what he thinks is right…
A lot of those companies sold were American retail or food companies, the likes of Michaels, Tailored Brands, Gamestop and Jack in the box. But also he wasn’t afraid to get rid of technology type companies like Qorvo and Facebook…
But that does lead us on to a very obvious question that you should ask me… If he sold so much of his portfolio, what did he replace it with?... and what I’m about to show you I think you’re going to find very interesting…!
Out of his top 10 biggest stock buys, 7 of those, were call options. Now I don’t know if you guys understand what a call option is, I’d say probably 50% of you do, but for those who don’t know let me explain…
A call option gives the buyer the opportunity, but not the obligation, to buy a certain stock at a fixed price. And of course you have to pay a certain one off fee, to be a holder of a stocks call option.
If a call option goes up you profit, and if it goes down, well, you just lose the small fee you pay.
So Michael burry his biggest buy so far, was a call option in the stock Alphabet, or google as it’s more well known. This means Burry paid a one off fee to be an owner in the call option, and now he can buy google at the original price, he agreed upon. If Google goes up like it has done a lot over the past couple of months, Burry makes a tonne of money. If Google falls and there’s a massive market crash, well Burry just loses the small fee that he paid and doesn’t have to buy the stock.
Basically what these call option buys do, is it allows you to profit if the stock market continues it’s run up, and it minimizes the downside to a massive extent...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Ray Dalio Buys Big Into China & Gold: The Reasons Why Are Unsettling
Ray Dalio has put a lot of money this year into Gold and China. In this video we'll show you his exact investments as well as some of the underlying reasons why he's making these investments...
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Ray Dalio, he runs the largest hedgefund in the world called Bridgewater which has over $150 billion dollars of assets under management. Now if you’re a nerd like me, you like to dig in to the portfolio and stock moves, of the billionaire investors of the world. And, I’ve done this recently with Dalio and his fund Bridgewater and I got to say I’ve found some very interesting results!
He’s invested heavily into both Chinese stocks and and gold…. Now what we’re going to do in this video is I’m going to show you the exact stocks that he’s bought and sold in the recent quarter, and then I’m going to go over the underlying reasons why he’s made quite a few strange investments…
Now he’s made over 50 different investments recently, so I’m not going to go over all of them, but I will show you the main ones and the ones that stuck out to me…
The first thing we’ve got to talk about is his gold investment. Now it’s never a surprise when I see Dalio buy gold, because he’s known as a gold advocate, but recently he’s bought a lot of it. We can see here that he’s bought 1.4 million shares in the SPDR gold trust, that’s about $260 million dollars of it. Then he went on further and bought around 4.1 million shares in the Ishares gold trust ticker symbol IAU. So that ones worth around $75 million dollars worth.
And that’s a big amount of money, over $330 million dollars, being put aside directly into gold. I mean when you consider that gold just sits there, it doesn’t do anything, it’s not productive like a stock or a business. So the question becomes why?
The thing you need to realise about gold, is it’s used as a protection mechanism. A safety measure so to speak… You see often when a lot of money is printed, a recession hits, stocks start to go down and people look for security. So they go to the symbol of security, which is gold. This is the reason during rough times, gold does well and can increase or hold its value.
And this is why Dalio says “I believe it would it would be both risk reducing and return enhancing to consider adding gold to ones portfolio”.
And he’s putting his money where his mouth is, recently he’s purchased a lot of gold.
Now the next thing that I’m going to point out, I find even more interesting then his gold purchase. Dalio’s investing a lot of money into China right now. Let me show this…
Dalio with Bridgewater bought 672 thousand shares in the Chinese company Alibaba in this recent 2020 quarter. That’s worth around $190 million dollars. The ticker symbol for that is BABA by the way. But he also bought 4.19 million shares in a Chinese large cap etf, ticker symbol, FXI. That’s worth around $185 million. Then he bought almost 1 million shares in JD.com the Chinese ecommerce company. He bought 110 thousand shares of netease, the Chinese internet technology company. He bought Pinduoduo stock, the 2nd largest Chinese online marketplace.
On top of all this he bought Baidu stock, China’s version of google. And a bunch more other Chinese companies, he bought so many I can’t go through them all. But what does this all mean? It means Dalio’s putting a high amount of his focus and money on China, and Chinese investments…
I mean I don’t know if you guys have gone through and been reading his LinkedIn articles recently but he’s got some interesting opinions out there. And to be honest I shouldn’t really call them opinions because they are based on facts…
But nevertheless what he points out is quite unsettling. He’s written a whole set of articles on the topic ‘the changing world order’. These articles start by saying “ I believe that the times ahead will be radically different from the times we have experienced so far in our lifetimes, though similar to many other times in history”.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Buffett Makes An Investment He Never Thought He Would (Gold). Here's Why...
In this video we go over Warren Buffetts investment in a gold mining company and the reasons why he's done this...
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I got to be honest when I initially saw this, I thought it was an April fools joke. But of course we are many months away from April and it was no joke, Warren Buffett has finally bought gold…
His investing company Berkshire Hathaway Has bought 20.9 million shares in the stock Barrick Gold Corporation, With a total value of 564 million dollars. So technically he did not directly buy gold, but he bought a company that mines and sells gold.
Now this is interesting, because those of you who know Buffett will know that he has bashed investing in gold for a long-time now…
He said back in the day that “(Gold) gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”.
But then 2020 comes around we look at his 13f filings, and what do we see, none other but a gold company in there. Over $500 million dollars of Barrick Gold corporation bought. So the question must become, why the change of tune? Why now, in these current market conditions does Buffett decide to invest in Gold. This Charlie Munger clip, might give us a bit of hint as to why…
So there are a few conditions in terms of the economy in terms of the stock market where Munger believes it is a smart investment to buy gold. And we might be seeing these conditions in today's economy. But also remember this, it’s not like Buffett has gone and put a massive position on gold. $564 million might seem like a big investment, but for Berkshire, it only makes up 0.28% of the entire portfolio.
Nevertheless it is a change of Tune for Buffett, and I want to go over some of those reasons why his investing company might be buying gold.
The first thing we need to understand is that he uses cash to buy gold. So if Buffett wanted he could leave this $500 odd million dollars in cash. The only problem with this, is that cash is very quickly becoming devalued in todays environment. We all know that the Fed, uncle Jerome, has been printing a lot of money over the past couple of months, in the form of stimulus checks and loans, in order to prop up the economy. Over just 3 & a half months, the federal reserve has printed a little over $3 trillion dollars to help American citizens and businesses.
The problem with this is it devalues the current money in the system.
I’ll give you an example. Let’s say there were 3 trillion trees in the world and they were each worth $100. But then you planted an extra 3 trillion trees. Well those original trees would not be worth as much. It’s just a simple supply and demand equation.
And that’s what’s going on now, the Fed is printing a lot of money, and this devalues the currency. Aka inflation, one of the first things you learn in economics…
However when you take a look at Gold, you can’t just print more gold. I mean don’t get me wrong I wish we could, but it’s not possible. There is a set amount of gold in the world, and therefore you can’t just devalue it by making more.
This is one reason why a lot of investors believe that gold is a great symbol of safety for when times get volatile, or risky.
So Buffett finally in the 70 however many years he’s been investing decides to buy gold. Now, there are a couple of ways that you can buy into gold. The first is directly buying it. Normally people do this through an etf, which basically just holds a bunch of gold in it, and tracks its price.
The 2nd way, which both Buffett and I believe is a smarter way, is by buying a company that mines gold.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Buffett Continues To Sell Stocks In 2020 & The Factors Behind It Are Alarming
Let's talk all the stocks that Warren Buffett has been selling in 2020 & the underlying reasons why he is selling...
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As you guys all know, I like to keep a keen eye on what Warren Buffett is doing in the stock market. And I’ve been doing this for quite some time now. If we look at the past 11 years, he’s been doing 1 thing. Buying stocks. The likes of Apple, Bank of America, General Motors, Southwest airlines, etc… that is until 2020 comes along.
2020, he’s actually been doing completely the opposite. Most of his stock moves have been sales. And we’ve seen this recently as well, when he released his 13f filings for the recent quarter. Here he made 22 stock move, 17 of those moves were the selling of stock…
In this video I want to go over first, the stocks that he did decided to sell. And secondly I want to go over the reasons why Buffett is predominantly selling instead of buying…
So the first major group of stocks that he’s been selling is his bank and financial stocks. Here’s the list of the ones he’s sold…
Wells Fargo he’s got rid of 85.6 million shares reducing his position by 26.5%.
JP Morgan, he sold 35.5 million shares reducing his position by 61.5%.
Pnc financial he’s reduced by 41.8%, Bank of New York Mellon he’s sold 9.3% of that position. US Bancorp he’s reduced by .4%. M&T Bank Corp he’s reduced by 15.7% and Goldman sachs guess what he’s done with that, he’s sold out of his entire position. That’s 7 banking and financial stocks been either sold by a certain percentage or completely sold out!
The next group you probably already know by now, Delta, Southwest, United and American Airlines, he has completely sold out of all those positions. Doesn’t have a single stock left in them…
Ok, another stock his company Berkshire Hathaway has completely sold out of is Restaurant Brands International. The fast food holding company. He also sold out of his entire occidental petroleum stock. To be honest that was a bit of a surprise for me, I thought he’d be enjoying oil stocks during this time while it’s cheap, but no…
Another position reduced was charter communications, he sold 3.9% of that stock. Also the majority of Sirius XM stock was sold, but he bought liberty Sirius XM group so that kind of cancels out one another… And Mastercard and visa were the last stocks that were sold this quarter. Reduced by 7.5 and 5.4% respectively.
So that’s all the stocks that he sold. 17 of them in total. I don’t know if Buffett has even been on a selling spree this big.
Now the interesting thing is if you look at the stocks that he bought, most of them were defensive plays. So overall he bought 5 stocks this quarter.
The first and only new position that Buffett bought was a gold mining company by the name Barrick Gold Corporation. Buffett bought 20.9 million shares in this company worth about $564 million dollars.
Now the interesting thing that all his followers out there will know. Is that Buffett has not bought gold ever his life. In fact he said back in 1998 that “(Gold) gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”.
So he never liked gold, that is up until now, where he decides to buy millions of dollars of it. Why, because it’s a defensive play, it’s known as safety measure, and it’s known as a portfolio hedge in case of a crash…
But this wasn’t the only defensive move Buffett made. He also added $4.2 million shares to his Suncor energy position… Now why’s this interesting? Well again, it’s those who know the market well who are surprised by this. Because energy stocks and precious metal are known to do the best during the very late stages of the market cycle. Often right before a market crash. So the fact that he’s gone and bought first of all gold and energy, it’s mmm something to mull over. Let’s just say that...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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How The Housing Crash Will Occur
Let's talk about the housing crash and what will be the causes of the potential collapse...
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I don’t know if you guys remember what happened around 2007, 2008 when it came to the housing market. Put simply, banks became loose with their lending policy, people borrowed a lot to buy a house, house prices shot up into a bubble and eventually that bubble popped.
Now the interesting / slightly scary thing is, that something similar is happening today. There is a comparable mix of ingredients right now in the housing market as there was almost 12 years ago and it’s about time someone talked about it…
So 2008, if you don’t understand what happened then, you need to go watch a movie called the big short. It’ll give you a good snapshot of how things played out. But basically it’s the story of how everything crumbles, people wanted to get rich.
So the brokers were getting rich, by finding as many people mortgages as they possibly could. The banks were getting rich, by selling these mortgages to institutional investor as something called collateralized debt obligations, for short CDO’s.
Now the thing you got to know is that a lot of these CDO’s were actually sound investments. They were mortgages that were paid by people with stable jobs and in stable financial situation. But a lot of these CDO’s were terrible. The people paying these mortgages simply couldn’t afford them.
So the inevitable happened, CDO’s caved in on themselves, investors lost money, the housing market fell apart and of course CDO’s got outlawed.
But that is until fairly recently when they invented something called the BTO. The bespoke tranche opportunity. It’s basically just a CDO but with a new name and a better reputation to it. Now just like CDO’s some of these BTO’s are good, but are lot of them are risky, and if mixed with the wrong market conditions, things can end badly….
The problem is that the market conditions that we are in today aren’t exactly great. There are a couple of factors, that make the housing market risky, which I’m going to go over now…
First, is interest rates. I want to take you back 60 or so years so that we can get a good overall picture of things. Now what I want you to do with this graph is look for the anomaly. The section that sticks out. Not anytime in this 65 year period has interest rates hit zero, until… 2009, just after the great financial crisis. And again in… 2020.
But why has the FED done this? Why have they pushed interest rates as low as they possibly can push them before it gets into the negatives?
They did this because they have to. They need it low to stimulate the economy. They need people to be able to borrow as much as possible so they can buy, spend, invest and keep the financial system ticking over. Or else a collapse might have already happened.
But there is a range of problems that comes with having low interest rates.
What you need to realize is low interest rates have a direct correlation to what mortgage rates are set at. If interest rates are low it becomes cheaper for banks to borrow money. Therefore they are able to give lower mortgage rates. Currently the interest rate is very low, consequently mortgage rates are very low.
Now this is important because if mortgage rates are low, it becomes easy to borrow money.
You see the long-term historical average mortgage rate is around 8%. So let’s say you earn $70k a year and you got a nice down payment ready. If the rate is 8% you can afford a house for $250,000. But if the rate is around 3%, which you can get today, with a good credit score on you, you can now buy a house worth $350,000. Aka $100,000 more…
Essentially with mortgage rates so low, you are able to borrow a lot more money. And do you think consumers are going to be cautious and not borrow this. Of course not. Generally speaking they borrow as much as they can...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Buffett's Favorite Indicator Sends A Warning To All Investors
The Global Buffett Indicator (Market Cap to GDP), has just surpassed the 100 number mark. This means stocks are now considered overvalued to what they're producing. Let me explain this further and what it means for investors...
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Warren Buffett, ok yup we all recognize, he’s the greatest investor of all-time. He’s the one guy that I know I can go to for reliable information on the stock market. I’ve been paying close attention to him for years upon years now and I got to say, there’s something that’s come up recently, that has got me very concerned on the stock markets future…
Ok, let me break this down. Warren Buffett he’s not known as a guy for timing the market. But the one indicator that he does look at, to see where stocks stand, is the market cap to total GDP. It’s now been named the Buffett indicator because he’s the one who’s made it so famous…
He said back in the day that this indicator is "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.".
So I just want to explain a bit about this indicator before we take a look at what it tells us. So the first part of the equation is the market cap. Basically saying how much are stocks selling for. This gives us a good look at the stock market as a whole.
The next part of the equation is total GDP. By the GDP stands for gross domestic product. Put simply how much is the world producing. How well is the economy going. So the first part of the equation is measuring the stock market, the other the economy…
Now the interesting thing is, if we take a look at the global indicator we can see that’s just surpassed that 100 number threshold. That means that stocks are now overvalued compared to what they are actually producing. But please remember that this is the global indicator. So it’s measuring the worlds entire economy and the entire stock market as a whole. It’s not niched down to any one country…
So let me just explain what this means. A number over 100 means that the stock market is priced higher than what the economy is actually producing.
You see what are stocks. They are businesses that produce. Aka they make up the economy. So you’d want the market cap or the prices of stocks to be cheaper compared to what they’re actually producing. Well at the moment that is not the case anymore when it comes to the world situation as a whole…
Essentially it’s showing us the striking gap between the record high prices of stocks and the depressed economy that we’ve seen recently…
So that’s the global Buffett indicator. The world indicator. What I want to do now is something arguably more important and look at the Buffett indicator when it comes the USA.
And by the way guys, I’m sorry but it’s not good news, the situation in the USA is actually worse, then the world one. Currently the Buffett indicator is sitting at 131%. That means it’s currently modestly overvalued. With anything above 134% considered to be signifcatnly overvalued. So it’s almost getting to that stage.
And rembemer what Buffett said about the indicator and a stock crash back in the day. He said in 2001 that when the indicator hit a record high in the months before the dot-com crash, it "should have been a very strong warning signal.".
So we’re around that stage now, where this indicator becomes a warning signal to all investors. That yea ok you can invest but, you’re investing at high valuations compared to what the stocks are actually producing.
Because you know you look at the stock market, it’s just had its best 100-day run since 1933. This has now lead on to stocks been priced at pretty much record highs. Looking at the S & P 500, it’s now recovered to what it was even before the world illness hit. Which let’s be honest that’s pretty crazy...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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How To Invest In Stocks In 2023
In this video we go over how to invest in the stock market during these volatile market conditions...
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2020 has probably been the weirdest year that I have invested in, ever since I started Investing many moons ago. Now I got to say I feel sorry for those new investors out there who are just getting into the stock market, because it’s very hard to navigate these dodgy waters if you do not know what you are doing.
But that’s the reason why I’m making this video. I want to provide a framework that is going to help you steer through these, let’s just say interesting times and not get burnt! Now it’s not going to make you an investing genius in one video, but what it will do, is get you on that right pathway, to investing well during volatile times.
I’m going to share with you 5 tips that I use, Buffett uses, the best investors use them, to beat other investors and win long-term…
Tip 1: Get Your Emotions In Check (Ready For A Crash)
One of the things that is going to be separating the average investors from the quality investors during these times, is those who can handle emotions. Jordan Peterson advises that we be the reliable one at a relative’s funeral.
It’s important that we take that advice further and relate it to investing. Particularly investing in and after a market crash…
You see this is the mindset that 90% of investors take on. When they see their stocks go up, they feel very happy. They go tell their friends at the bar, how much money they made, they check their stocks weekly if not daily, their emotions are all caught up in the ups and downs of the stock market.
However the small percent of investors that do the best, are the ones, who do the opposite of what these guys do. The investors that win, are actually when their stock goes down because it means its gotten cheaper, so they can buy more at a cheap price.
Over the long-term they know the cheaper the price that they buy into stocks, the higher their returns will be. It’s because of this exact concept that Buffett says “you’re dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it’s like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing”.
“buy low, sell high!”. Unfortunately most investors do the opposite.
Tip 2: Choose An Area That You Are Competent In
If you want an advantage over other investors, if you want to be getting those high level returns, you need to be investing in areas that you know well. So what I recommend is you take a step back and you assess the areas that you know well. Ok, if you’re a young guy, it might be gaming, artificial intelligence, social media, some type of technology business.
If you’re older, your advantage might be in businesses that are more mature. Perhaps hospitality, travel, wine, food, you know something along that nature.
You know Buffett he only sticks to those more mature business models that he knows well. The likes of sees candy, which sells sweet products. That business model has been around for ages and Buffett understands it. Or the likes of insurance which Buffett put many hours into getting his head around. He knows that game so well, that he can pick the companies that are good investments.
And you should be doing the exact same thing as Buffett. As I say if you’re young, and you like gaming, well you probably have a better idea then most of what companies are going to lead in the future. And what industries will take off.
That’s why one of Peter Lynches most famous quotes is so simple but so genius. He says "Know what you own, and know why you own it." - Peter Lynch.
You see most investors they want to make money in every industry. They want to talk at the bar to their friends about all the companies they own. But rarely do they stick alone to the industries they know well. Rarely do they understand exactly what it is they own and why they own it. That’s why you shouldn’t be like most investors.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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A Deep Look Into Cathie Wood's Portfolio (Ark Invest)
In this video we take a look into Cathie Wood's stock portfolio over at Ark Invest.
She's an investor who focuses on technology and innovation, looking for those companies that could potentially change the way the world works. Here's her 10 largest stock positions...
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Ray Dalio: Inflation Is Coming, Do This Now!
In this video Ray Dalio explains why it's likely that inflation is on it's way and how you can prepare for it!
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My 2nd Investing YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6qBTYqQpXqLutg39ZgXcJQ
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
Charlie Munger: Advice On Investing
In this video we go over 6 pieces of investing advice by one of the smartest investing minds in the world, Charlie Munger!
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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THE FED IS BAILING OUT THE STOCK MARKET
In this video we go over one of the big reasons why the stock market is up by so much (in 2020) and that is the federal reserve. They've been printing a lot of money, keeping interest rates low and buying junk bonds which is propping the market up...
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If you take a look at the stock market over the past couple of months it has been on an absolute tear. I mean in just over 3 months the stock market has increased by over 40%, now getting close to all time stock market highs. However if we take a look at the economy it’s doing completely the opposite. It contracted at a 5.0% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2020, the sharpest speed of decline in GDP since the 2008 Great Recession.
So the real question we should be asking, is hang on, why is the stock market increasing by so much. Surely it should behave similar to what it normally does, which is close to the economy. It’s almost as if this increase is a little bit artificial. As if something is propping it up. And that’s because it is. There’s this weird force which I’m sure you’ve all heard of, that has a big set of cards in what happens to the stock market. And of course, I’m talking about the FED!
For those who don’t know the FED has been making some very interesting moves, which as we can see now has had a massive effect on the stock market…
One of those interesting moves, is it’s made an unprecedented decision to buy junk bonds from corporations.
Let me explain this. You see during this particular illness, lockdown weird situations that we’re in. A lot of the weaker companies are struggling. And by weaker generally I mean those who were not prepared. You know when it comes to personal finance, Dave Ramsey always recommends having a safety net of cash in place, and other things to make sure you’re ready for when times get tough.
But this is even more important for big companies. You need to have you balance sheet ready. You need to have enough cash saved at your disposal, just in case there’s a downturn which often happens.
Now we’ve recently seen one of those downturns, and we still are in one, when you look at the economy. The IMF Says the US Economy Will Drop 6.6% in 2020.
Now often what happens in these times, is those bad companies who don’t manage themselves well go out of business. Normally they run out of money, they try and issue debt, but no one wants to buy their debt. By the issuing debt just means, saying can I have some money, then I will pay you back with interest at a later date.
But, when you’re a bad company most investors won’t buy your debt. The likes of Warren Buffett, they’ll look at it and think, hang there’s a good chance you won’t pay me back. Even if you give me a good interest, I’m not buying it…
And then what happens is those companies go out of business.
Except when uncle Sam decides to step in. And by Uncle Sam I actually mean uncle Jerome Powell with his infinite money printer. He comes and he says no worries, you need some money, we’ll buy your junk bonds, we can just print more money anyway. This is a move, that we have never seen before by the FED, where they have chosen to buy junk bonds.
So normally the fed is not afraid to buy traditional bonds, and that’s fair enough. But junk bonds, may be a step too far. For those who don’t know let’s just say that traditional bonds are kind of like betting that the Lakers will win their game. Junk bonds are like betting that the Timberwolves, or the pelicans will win. Ah it’s pretty touch and go.
So you’re getting companies that normally wouldn’t be getting this money, but because of Uncle Jerome they are… The Federal Reserve stepped in with a $750 billion program to prop up the corporate debt market, and this is a big reason behind why the stock market is up by so much. Big companies getting essentially free money, because of very low interest rates.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Tesla Stock Is Making Investors Millionaires. Here’s How
Tesla has been one of those stocks, that has made investors a lot of wealth over the past 3, 5, 10 years (heck even the past couple of months). In this video we go over the reasons why and if it may still be a good buy...
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Now I don’t know how many of you have been following Tesla stock lately but all I can say is one thing. It’s made a lot of people a lot of money… If you had invested 15k in Tesla less than a decade ago, you would now be a millionaire. For those who invested more than that, the likes of Elon Musk, well let’s just say they’re now extremely wealthy. He’s now in the top 10 richest men in the world. Not that I think he cares that much about being the richest man in the world, he’s more worried about saving the world. And also going to another planet as well. Just your everyday guy, with your everyday goals…
Now obviously that’s sarcasm, but a regular goal for a regular guy often, is to become a millionaire… And Elon Musk’s Tesla stock has made a multitude of regular people into wealthy guys. Those who were smart and invested when Tesla was just $19 a share, they made an 8,000% return on their investment.
Those who were slightly less smart like myself and invested when Tesla was around $200, well we still made a solid return on our investment, let’s just say that.
But what I want to do in this video is go over how… How did Tesla make so much money for itself and for it’s investors. We’ll then move on to where is Tesla going to go in the future. Is it currently a good investment to hold, what potential does it still have…
So the question that we need to ask ourselves, is what was it that those early investors saw. And what is it that Elon Musk was able to do, in order to make Tesla the biggest car company in the world. By the way, back in the day, no one even had a hope of a dream that an electric vehicle company could become so big. Nowadays it seems like it was inevitable.
The breakthrough from Tesla came not from delivering the roadster, not from the model S, it was the model 3. This was a car that was sleek, it was well designed, and most important it was affordable to the broad public…
And the broader public went absolutely nuts on this vehicle. They started buying it by the bucket load. As you can see, in terms of total sales it destroyed its competition selling over 140,000 total vehicles worldwide. The funny thing about this graph was that coming in at 4th and 5h was also Tesla vehicles as well. It just shows how strong they are. But model 3 was the big seller and the game changer.
You know it was the first time, that people could really start picturing Tesla as the company that bought about Electric vehicles to the world. You see granted everyone knew that electric vehicles would be the car of the future, but no one knew when this happening or who would do it. When Elon Musk, showed that you can produce a quality electric vehicle car and it sell it mass market at a cheap rate, it changed everything.
But the thing is for Tesla, they’ve now got the whole world to sell their product to. Most people already have a gasoline vehicle. So they don’t really have a need to buy another one. However it’s very rare that someone has an electric vehicle. This creates an enormous opportunity to sell to the entire world, and its one of the big reasons why Tesla stock is up by so much in price, and why it’s made a lot of people a lot of money.
The other thing that Tesla has done is grown it’s presence in China. As we all know they’ve got their Gigafactory 3 in shanghai which is producing model Y and model 3 vehicles. And this is for a growing demand in Tesla’s cars, in the 2nd most powerful economy in the world. By the way the most powerful economy in the U.S. Tesla already dominates that market.
But China, Tesla is also number 1, but more importantly they’re growing. As you can see they delivered the most electric vehicles ahead of any of those Chinese brands. As Dan Ives said “China appeared to be the star of the show and was a major source of strength in 2Q based on our analysis and industry data."
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Buffett Makes His First Major Investment In 2020. Here’s Why
Warren Buffett has finally dug into his investing checkbook into 2020 and purchased his first big investment. In this video I want to explain what it is and why Buffett bought it!
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For those who have been following Warren Buffett like myself you will know that he has not bought any major stocks in 2020. On the other hand he’s done a lot of selling this year. He sold completely out of his airline stocks. He sold a lot of his bank stocks and a range of others. But buying stocks nah, he hasn’t really done anything. That is up until now.
I don’t know if you guys have heard the news, but finally Warren Buffett is reaching into his checkbook, for a $10 billion dollar deal in Dominion Energy’s natural gas assets.
Ok so that might sound confusing to some people so let me break that down. Dominion Energy is an energy stock that supplies electricity for some parts of the USA as well as natural gas to other parts of the USA.
However Dominion energy have made it clear that they’re trying to become a company that focuses on clean energy production. So this means that they’ve got a whole natural gas section that they’re willing to sell.
Warren Buffett comes along. He see’s this natural gas business for sale. A business in which he is already in. And he decides to buy it, at a price that he found appropriate!
So what he did was he put in $4 billion dollars and assumed $5.7 billion in debt to buy the natural gas transmission and storage assets of Dominion Energy. So that deal almost comes to a total of $10 billion dollars.
Now the interesting thing, is that Warren Buffett was already in the natural gas business before he bought these assets from dominion energy. Before this Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owned 8% of all interstate natural gas transmission in the United States. After this buy, this number has increased to 18% largely increasing their footprint in the natural gas energy business.
So I want to quickly go over the details of this purchase from Buffett, before we get into the reasons why Buffett made this purchase, and finally opened his investing Wallet this year.
So what exactly did Buffett’s Berkshire buy? Alright they acquired 100% of Dominion Energy Transmission, Questar Pipeline and Carolina Gas Transmission and they bought 50% of Iroquois Gas Transmission System. Berkshire will also now own 25% of Cove Point LNG, which is an export-import and storage facility for natural gas based in the United States.
All included it’s 7,700 miles of natural gas storage and transmission pipelines and about 900 billion cubic feet of gas storage.
So that’s the facts of the acquisition but let’s get into the reasons why, which to me is absolutely fascinating. We all know that right now in the stock market, it’s not easy to find a good deal. Most things are selling at a premium price tag and that’s to say the least. But it does not matter what market condition that you are in, there will always be opportunities. And I don’t know if you remember a couple of months ago, there was a big crash in both the price of oil and natural gas. I mean in just a few months oil went from $60 a barrel to $18 a barrel. Because obviously of the lock-down situation that the world was and is facing. Same with natural gas it went from being priced at $2.80 to a $1.40.
This left a range of very cheap stocks in this particular sector. And I actually made a video on this in late April. On 3 cheap oil stocks to buy. By the way the interesting thing was I got a lot of hate in this video on the stocks that I recommended. Just go check out the comment section if you want. Yet the stocks that I mentioned are actually doing very well. Ones up 65%, the others up 18%, and the others actually down 3%. It just shows never go with the crowd, go with your calculated decision based on the facts.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Bill Gates: How To Achieve A 16.5% Return Per Year
Bill Gates, a savvy investor to say the least has managed to beat the market throughout his investing career. Here's some tips that Gates has used in order to do so...
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The very first thing that you probably think of when it comes to Bill Gates is nerdy businessman. You don’t necessarily think, extremely smart investor. Yet he is actually both. He amassed a big fortune by creating Microsoft, but he turned this big fortune into a massive fortune through extremely smart investing. Obviously alongside his lead investor Michael Larson. So in this video we’re going to go over the tips and tricks that Bill Gates used to amass this fortune. If we look back over the past 7 years he achieved an annual average return of 16.5%, here’s how…
Tip 1: Ignore The Noise Focus On Buying Great Companies
Tip 2: Pick Good Managers!
Tip 3: "To win big, you sometimes need to take big risks."
“To win big, you sometimes need to take big risks”. This is a direct quote from Bill Gates. And what he’s trying to say is that sometimes if you’re overly conservative with you investing style you’re going to miss out on those high returns. Best example that I can give to you with this is ok what are the companies that have done the best over the past decade. They’ve been those highly innovative technology companies. The likes of Netflix which has gone up over 6,500% over the past 10 years. The likes of Amazon, that’s gone up over 2000%. Or Apple over 1,100%. A lot of people if you invested in these stocks would say ohhh, you’re taking a major risk. And yes that’s true, you are taking a major risk. But you know what else you’re taking on. A massive opportunity. An opportunity to make extremely high profits, in the thousands of percentage points. This is what Bill Gates is getting at when he’s saying “to win big, you sometimes need to take big risks.".
If you apply this to investing, don’t be too afraid to invest early in the likes of Tesla, Amazon, Netflix etc, if you see tremendous upside in your stock…
Tip 4: Patience Is Key When Investing
The thing you need to realise about a lot of investments, is that inevitably you’re going to see a lot of up’s and downs. You know for all those Tesla investors, you know exactly what I’m talking about. There’s been many a times when everyone thought this stock was going to hell in a handbasket. When Elon Musk started tweeting about Tesla been taken private at $420. Or when he went on the Joe Rogan podcast and did some subjectively naughty things. People were saying Tesla, this electric car company they’ve got no chance of making it. But those who stayed patient, and saw the value of the company, well they made a great amount of profit.
It doesn’t matter what type of investor you are, if you can’t handle the ups and downs of the stock market, the vicissitudes, you should not be playing the game at all…
But you know it’s the age old story, if you can handle those ups and downs over time you will make a lot of money. Warren Buffett he made 99.7% of his wealth after the age of 52. This was all due to patience and compound interest. With time and smart investing, his portfolio just grew on itself. Like a snowball, but once it’s rolling there’s no stopping it getting bigger. However you do need the patience to build that snowball in the first place and that’s what Gates is getting at with this rule!
Tip 5: Diversify
One of the smartest investing decisions Bill Gates ever made was choosing to diversify and not have all his wealth in Microsoft. You see before the huge technology bubble crash in the year 2000, to sell a deep amount of his Microsoft shares and use that money to invest in other companies. The likes of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, Canadian National Railway, Waste Management and a bunch more stocks. This ensured that when the crash did occur, he was not entirely reliant on one technology stock for his entire net worth. He was diversified and did not get hit as badly.
You see right now Bill Gates only has about 15% of his portfolio in Microsoft. Then he’s got 47% in Berkshire Hathaway. Which in itself is extremely well diversified. Because what that’s an investing company, that buys a whole range of different stocks.
Because of his diversification Gates knows that even if one of his stocks fails and goes bust, his net worth is safe…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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Dalio's Frightening Words On The Stock Markets Future
Dalio came out with a very interesting letter to clients which discusses a potential lost decade ahead in the stock market. Let's talk about this...
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Ray Dalio, he’s the billionaire hedge fund manager at Bridgewater who’s made over $58.5 billion dollars for his clients. Now when you’ve got such wealthy clients you have to send them updates every now and again. And Bloomberg has managed to get insight into a recent update that Dalio sent to his clients. And what can I say about this insight it was a very gloomy prediction on what stocks would do over the next 10 years. Dalio warned of a possible “lost decade” for the stock market going ahead. Let me explain…
If you look throughout history there’s been a number of these times where the stock market, has seen negative returns for 10 years or longer. So if you put your money in the stock market during those times, you could have waited 10 years and still seen a loss.
For example the year 2000. Right before the dotcom crash. If you invested then you could have waited over 12 years until 2012 and still lost money.
Probably the best example that we could give was back in 1929. If you invested then, you would have had to wait over 30 years before you made any profit on your investment. Imagine investing and having to wait that long. Crazy…
And Dalio thinks that we might be in one of those periods. Today! Where if you invested now, it might be a decade and you still could lose money! But let’s delve into why!...
The first thing that Bridgewater mentioned as causability for the lost decade ahead, was lowering profit margins. So that’s a decrease in what profit margins once were.
They said, “The margins, which have provided a big chunk of the excess return of equities over cash, could face a shift that would go beyond the current cyclical downturn in earnings”.
And one of the reasons why they see the lowering of profit margins is because of the decline in globalization.
They said “Globalization, perhaps the largest driver of developed world profitability over the past few decades, has already peaked,”. “Now the U.S.-China conflict and global pandemic are further accelerating moves by multinationals to reshore and duplicate supply chains, with a focus on reliability as opposed to just cost optimization.”. End quote.
So I want to explain this, because it’s very important to understand what these analysts are saying…
So what they’re saying is in 2019 and the years before this, there was this big drive towards globalization. This just means businesses operating in different countries and sourcing things from other countries as well. Why did they do this. Because it’s so much cheaper and so much more profitable. So profit margins became really high.
But the analysts at Bridgewater, what they’re seeing is a decline in globalization. Since this crisis. This decline is happening because countries are looking to rely more on themselves and produce their own goods.
But what this does to a lot of companies profit margins is it decreases them. Because more expensive to produce them yourself instead of outsourcing them. This is one of the key reasons behind the lost decade argument. The decrease in globalization…
The analysts at Bridgewater say “Even if overall profits recover, some companies will die or their shares will devalue along the way. Left with lower levels of profits and cash shortfalls, companies are likely to come out on the other side of the illness more indebted,” the analysts warned.
This is the 2nd reason behind the lost decade argument for stocks and that is higher levels of corporate debt!
You see this lockdown that we’ve seen, it hasn’t helped companies balance sheets. If you’ve got a business and your not able to operate it for a couple of months, well you’ve still got expenses to pay. And because you’re not generating any income for these expenses, you do the only thing that you can do. And that is borrow money. And this is what Bridgewater analysts are talking about, the rise in corporate debt. Which never helps long-term with equity markets…
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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When Will The Stock Market Crash?
Let's look at the different factors that contribute to a market crash to see when a crash might occur. We also go into what the experts are predicting with regards to the timing of the market crash.
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One of the most popular questions that I get asked, is when will the stock market crash. What are we talking. 2020? 2021? Or within the next 5 years, 10 years. And it’s a great question, that’s what markets do, they go up and eventually they crash. Cycles of greed and then cycles of fear. But the question is when will be the next cycle of fear. Aka, when’s the next market crash? And I’m going to be honest here. I do not know exactly when the next market crash will be. The only thing that I can do, is look at history and past statistics, to try and get a feel for around when it might take place.
So let’s dig straight in to this. The first thing and the most obvious thing that we should look at is the history of market cycles. So let’s go back 150 years. There’s been a lot of momentous events that have resulted in huge stock market crashes.
Black Monday anyone investing in those days will never forget the day the market crashed by 22% in a single day. Inflation mixed with the Vietnamese war, that would have been an extremely tough period to be in. And of course probably the most well known one in history the 1929 crash and great depression. This literally changed a generations mindset to investing.
Anyway the main thing that we can take from this graph is that market crashes tend to occur on average around every 8-10 years.
Now let’s test your memory. When was the last recession. That would be… In 2008, the housing bubble crisis. Which means let’s do a quick bit of math, it’s been 12 years since the last stock market crash occurred. Which means if you go by what history tells us, that we are around due for the next recession to come…
But of course it’s not like it occurs exactly on the dot every 8-10 years. Unfortunately there’s always room and leeway. And the market is never something that can be perfectly forecasted even if you look at history.
But I will tell you one indicator that I think all of us investors should really be following when trying to think about when another market crash will occur or a recession. And that indicator is the unemployment rate…
Now this graph takes us back around 70 years in time. And if you have a keen eye , you would notice something out of the ordinary sticking out. And that is the unemployment rate in 2020. That massive spike that you can see at the end of the graph… We’ve never seen something like this before, unemployment rising to such a high figure in literally the click of your fingers…
So for those interested in what the economy and the stock market might do in the short-term, keep a close eye on this figure. Because if these unemployment rates, remain at high levels, the economy is inevitably going to go down soon. Because if you have so many people not working, compared to previous years, you can’t sustain the amount of output that you had.
But on the other hand, the opposite is also just as likely. As well all know things are things are starting to go back to normal. Businesses reopening, people starting to go out more, and hopefully this results in the unemployment rate going down… This will be a key figure to watch to see if a crash will occur in 2020, 2021, or if there’s a lot longer to wait…
The other thing that I like to do when trying to get a feel for the stock market is see what the billionaire investors are saying. Now there’s definitely a few out there that let’s just say are not bullish on the stock market in the short-term. Stanley Drukenmillar the billionaire American investor is one of those guys. He said the risk-reward calculation for stocks is the worst he’s seen whilst working in stocks, and that the government stimulus programs won’t be enough to overcome real world economic problems.
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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How Much Do You Need Invested To Retire Off Dividends?
In this video we'll answer the question, how much money do you need invested to retire off dividends?
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.
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The Truth About Tesla Stock
I want to talk everything Tesla stock in this video. Is it going to $6,000 like Cathy Wood predicts? Or is it in a bubble?
📊 Sven Carlin (Expert Investor) Portfolio & Free Investing Course: http://bit.ly/SvenCarlinPortfolio
📈 How To Invest Course: http://bit.ly/theinvestingacademy-how-to-invest-in-the-stock-market
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My New Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tristanjcooper/
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your financial adviser.