The Great Canadian Bagel

I break down and discuss the US house of representatives election my models election forecast and analysis of why the situation is where it is. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

Slightly different format of Hot Take Tuesday, comment below if you liked this format or last months format better. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310016701 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310015201 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CA https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/census-2016-marriage-children-families-1.4231872 https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda/resource/d1c1f4f3-2d7f-4e02-9a79-7af98209c2f3 https://www.statista.com/statistics/443066/number-of-emigrants-from-canada/ Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I walk through the results created by my Canadian Federal Election model and Canadian polling data and where the movement in the polls are and why that might be. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I break down and discuss why the most recent Angus Reid Poll for the CPC leadership race is not a good poll and discuss the red flags that pop up when reading a poll. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I break down and discuss the US house of representatives election my models election forecast and analysis of why the situation is where it is. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I walk through the results created by my Canadian Federal Election model and Canadian polling data and where the movement in the polls are and why that might be. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I rank the conservative leadership candidates on a tierlist based on how much Iike them, how effective a leader they could be, and how likely they would be to win. Apologizes for the background noise didn't realize how much it bled through. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

Slightly different format of Hot Take Tuesday, comment below if you liked this format or last months format better. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I walk through my Quebec election model and discuss the status of the election, where it might lead and the challenges facing the parties. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I break down and discuss the US house of representatives election my models election forecast and analysis of why the situation is where it is. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I go complex data modeling which enables the comparison of Patrick Brown, Jean Charest, and Pierre Poilievre in a hypothetical general election on July 3 2022. Strong word of caution there are a bunch of assumptions on how to interpret data required to allow this to be made. There is a large margin of error. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I break down and discuss the 2022 CPC leadership race and the underlying currents in the CPC as while as directions it could be going. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I walk through the results created by my Canadian Federal Election model and Canadian polling data and where the movement in the polls are and why that might be. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

Chris, Lexie and a guest Alexander discuss Canadian news and answer questions from chat. Follow Bagel on Twitter: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

**** I said 8 EST time I meant 7 EST for the live stream **** I discuss how to make Canada's elections better at representing peoples interests. PBR infinite Series video on a specific case of why a perfect ranked voting system is not possible. Specific subcase of Unanimity and IIA. Note I didnt consider IIA because every single system I have discussed fails it, but it is a desirable aspect. https://youtu.be/AhVR7gFMKNg Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling Credit to thumbnail goes to Lexie Cole

I break down and discuss the US house of representatives election my models election forecast and analysis of why the situation is where it is. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

Sources All Homicide rates pulled from Macrotrends.net ex: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murder-homicide-rate Guns Sold in the US pulled from https://www.safehome.org/data/firearms-guns-statistics/ Guns per capita by country from Small Arms Survey 2017, https://www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/estimating-global-civilian-held-firearms-numbers Gunownership by state from Rand.org https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy/gun-ownership.html US State Homicide rate from https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend circa 2018 Gun Control Grades from https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/strictest-gun-laws-by-state Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling Credit to thumbnail goes to Lexie Cole

I walk through my Quebec election model and discuss the status of the election, where it might lead and the challenges facing the parties. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I break down and discuss the potential of the proposed OLP-NPD coalition and how it would benefit either party. I also discuss the potential paths to victory for the NDP and the OLP. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I break down and discuss the raw election results where the polling did good, where it went wrong. Additionally discuss all the major seat forecast models and compare their success in seat projection accuracy and PV projection accuracy. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I compare Mixed Membe rProportionalVoting to the 12 criteria I outlined in the first video of this series to see how it satisfies them before ranking it on the tier lists of Electoral Systems. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling Credit to thumbnail goes to Lexie Cole

Chris and Lexie discuss the Ontario election results and make calls on the winners of ridings. Follow Bagel on Twitter: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling

I walk through my Ontario election model and discuss the status of the election, where it might lead and the challenges facing the parties. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling Map licences Attribution: DrRandomFactor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/en:Creative_Commons https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/deed.en

I compare Runoff Voting to the 12 criteria I outlined in the first video of this series to see how it satisfies them before ranking it on the tier lists of Electoral Systems. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling Credit to thumbnail goes to Lexie Cole

I walk through my Ontario election model and discuss the status of the election, where it might lead and the challenges facing the parties. Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling Map licences Attribution: DrRandomFactor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/en:Creative_Commons https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/deed.en