Worst Raid In History? | US House of Representatives Election (August 14th 2022)
I break down and discuss the US house of representatives election my models election forecast and analysis of why the situation is where it is.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
6
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The Fertility Crisis | Hot Take Tuesday
Slightly different format of Hot Take Tuesday, comment below if you liked this format or last months format better.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310016701
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310015201
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CA
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/census-2016-marriage-children-families-1.4231872
https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda/resource/d1c1f4f3-2d7f-4e02-9a79-7af98209c2f3
https://www.statista.com/statistics/443066/number-of-emigrants-from-canada/
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
2
views
Economic Woes Drive Conservative Lead | Canadian Federal Election Forecast (August 7th 2022)
I walk through the results created by my Canadian Federal Election model and Canadian polling data and where the movement in the polls are and why that might be.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
1
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Anatomy of a Bad Poll - Angus can't Reid
I break down and discuss why the most recent Angus Reid Poll for the CPC leadership race is not a good poll and discuss the red flags that pop up when reading a poll.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
2
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Bad Economic Numbers Sinking the Democrats | US House or Representatives Election (July 24 2022)
I break down and discuss the US house of representatives election my models election forecast and analysis of why the situation is where it is.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
1
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Conservatives Take Front | Canadian Election Forecast (July 17 2022)
I walk through the results created by my Canadian Federal Election model and Canadian polling data and where the movement in the polls are and why that might be.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
3
views
Conservative Leadership Race 2022 Candidate Tier List
I rank the conservative leadership candidates on a tierlist based on how much Iike them, how effective a leader they could be, and how likely they would be to win.
Apologizes for the background noise didn't realize how much it bled through.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
2
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Hot Take Tuesday: Pursuit of Happiness is the Pursuit of Misery
Slightly different format of Hot Take Tuesday, comment below if you liked this format or last months format better.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
1
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The PCQ Wildcard | Quebec Election Forecast (July 10 2022)
I walk through my Quebec election model and discuss the status of the election, where it might lead and the challenges facing the parties.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
1
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Roe's Overturning Had No Affect | US House of Representative Election (June 19 2022)
I break down and discuss the US house of representatives election my models election forecast and analysis of why the situation is where it is.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
10
views
Conservative Leadership Candidates in Hypothetical General Election (July 3 2022)
I go complex data modeling which enables the comparison of Patrick Brown, Jean Charest, and Pierre Poilievre in a hypothetical general election on July 3 2022.
Strong word of caution there are a bunch of assumptions on how to interpret data required to allow this to be made. There is a large margin of error.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
9
views
Authenticity is the Name of the Game | Conservative Leadership Race (June 27 2022)
I break down and discuss the 2022 CPC leadership race and the underlying currents in the CPC as while as directions it could be going.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Liberals Start Slipping | Canadian Federal Election Forecast (June 26 2022)
I walk through the results created by my Canadian Federal Election model and Canadian polling data and where the movement in the polls are and why that might be.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
1
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Great Canadian Fridays - RCMP Commissioner Acted to HELP Trudeau Pass Gun Control
Chris, Lexie and a guest Alexander discuss Canadian news and answer questions from chat.
Follow Bagel on Twitter: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
3
views
Electoral Systems: Canada's Elections Improved
**** I said 8 EST time I meant 7 EST for the live stream ****
I discuss how to make Canada's elections better at representing peoples interests.
PBR infinite Series video on a specific case of why a perfect ranked voting system is not possible. Specific subcase of Unanimity and IIA. Note I didnt consider IIA because every single system I have discussed fails it, but it is a desirable aspect. https://youtu.be/AhVR7gFMKNg
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Credit to thumbnail goes to Lexie Cole
Republican Landslide Incoming? | US House of Representative Election (June 19 2022)
I break down and discuss the US house of representatives election my models election forecast and analysis of why the situation is where it is.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
2
views
Hot Take Tuesday: Private Gun Ownership Reduces Homicides
Sources
All Homicide rates pulled from Macrotrends.net ex: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murder-homicide-rate
Guns Sold in the US pulled from https://www.safehome.org/data/firearms-guns-statistics/
Guns per capita by country from Small Arms Survey 2017, https://www.smallarmssurvey.org/resource/estimating-global-civilian-held-firearms-numbers
Gunownership by state from Rand.org https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy/gun-ownership.html
US State Homicide rate from https://crime-data-explorer.app.cloud.gov/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend circa 2018
Gun Control Grades from https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/strictest-gun-laws-by-state
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Credit to thumbnail goes to Lexie Cole
14
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Liberals Stumble; Legault Dominates | Quebec Election Forecast (June 12 2022)
I walk through my Quebec election model and discuss the status of the election, where it might lead and the challenges facing the parties.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Ontario Election Post Mortem Part 2 | Ontario Election Forecast (June 8 2022)
I break down and discuss the potential of the proposed OLP-NPD coalition and how it would benefit either party. I also discuss the potential paths to victory for the NDP and the OLP.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Ontario Election Post-Mortem Part 1 | Ontario Election Forecast (June 7 2022)
I break down and discuss the raw election results where the polling did good, where it went wrong. Additionally discuss all the major seat forecast models and compare their success in seat projection accuracy and PV projection accuracy.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Electoral Systems: Mixed Member Proportional
I compare Mixed Membe rProportionalVoting to the 12 criteria I outlined in the first video of this series to see how it satisfies them before ranking it on the tier lists of Electoral Systems.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Credit to thumbnail goes to Lexie Cole
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Election Night In Ontario
Chris and Lexie discuss the Ontario election results and make calls on the winners of ridings.
Follow Bagel on Twitter: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Doug Ford Cruises To Victory | Ontario Election Forecast (June 1 2022)
I walk through my Ontario election model and discuss the status of the election, where it might lead and the challenges facing the parties.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Map licences
Attribution: DrRandomFactor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/en:Creative_Commons
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/deed.en
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Electoral Systems: Open List Proportional
I compare Runoff Voting to the 12 criteria I outlined in the first video of this series to see how it satisfies them before ranking it on the tier lists of Electoral Systems.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Credit to thumbnail goes to Lexie Cole
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Ford Nation Retains Dominance | Ontario Election Forecast (May 29 2022)
I walk through my Ontario election model and discuss the status of the election, where it might lead and the challenges facing the parties.
Follow me on Twitter for updates and memes: https://twitter.com/BagelPolling
Map licences
Attribution: DrRandomFactor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/en:Creative_Commons
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/deed.en