ISRAEL UPDATE

IN-DEPTH SPECIAL WITH PROF. KOBI MICHAEL. Few people have so much experience with the Palestinians like Prof. Michael. He was there at the cradle of the Palestinian authority: he was the first commander of the Southern Israeli-Palestinian security coordination apparatus in the Gaza Strip and the commander of the Israeli-Palestinian security coordination apparatus in the West Bank. He is a former senior intelligence officer in the IDF, and has served as deputy director general and the head of the Palestinian division at the ministry of strategic affairs. He's also former head of the Palestinian division at the Israeli NSC. In this In Depth Special he lays out the Hamas-Iran multi-front strategy to defeat Israel. Prof. Michael is now a senior fellow at the INSS and the Misgav Institute.

Though Iran's attack was almost wholly intercepted, by the combined Israeli-American efforts, this was no victory over Iran. Mike explains why a defensive strategy can never defeat an offensive dominant one. Then there is also the high cost of the defense systems relative to cheapness and quantity of Iran's drones and missiles. Iran has also collected a great deal of intelligence about the systems it is facing. But above all it successfully changed the rules of the game - and the US has let it do so. It now remains to be seen how Israel will respond.

Last Thursday, President Biden had a very tense conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu, demanding among other things, that the Israelis provide more humanitarian aid to Gazan civilians, and take concrete steps to achieve an immediate ceasefire, including by sending an empowered delegation to Cairo to negotiate a hostages-for-prisoners swap with Hamas. Several days later, the Israeli delegation appeared in Cairo to negotiate and, at the same time, the Israel Defense Forces announced the withdrawal of all of their maneuver forces from the Gaza Strip. Many observers speculate that the withdrawal came in response to American pressure. Israeli officials deny that claim, and Netanyahu has promised that an operation to take Rafah will definitely take place -- but will it? Mike Gadi -- like everyone else -- don't have clear answers to the question, but they have a number of thoughtful considerations about it.

The protest against Netanyahu is reaching a dangerous new level of violence, with a recent attempt to break through the barriers protecting his family's private residence. Ronen Bar, the director of Israel's security service, the Shabak, has warned that the protest is spilling over into the danger zone. Mike and Gadi can't help but wonder, though, why is anyone not charged with a crime here, and how many would have been charged if violent right-wing protesters tried to breach security around a left-wing politician's home. Plus: the strike that killed a senior Iranian IRGC commander has increased the danger of regional escalation to a level not seen yet since the beginning of the war.

The crisis in relations between Washington and Jerusalem intensified this week, when the Biden Administration refrained from vetoing the United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Although mainstream Israeli columnists, habitual critics of Prime Minister Netanyahu, reflexively blame him for the crisis, it is increasingly clear that the Biden administration opposes the military strategy in Gaza that most Israelis support. Gadi and Mike discuss the contradictory implications of the American policy. On the one hand, the crisis with Washington unites the country behind Netanyahu, but, on the other, it exacerbates domestic political controversies, such as the disagreements over a proposed law to draft ultra-orthodox men into the military. As Netanyahu navigates these treacherous crosscurrents, he faces what is perhaps the most perilous moment in his long career.

The ever more explicit attempts by the Democrats to remove Netanyahu from office repeatedly fail. There's a reason for that. Israelis don't like to feel that their bigger stronger ally is trying to dictate to them who will govern their country. They are even less hospitable to the idea that the US will try to force them into the two-state solution track. But Mike thinks the ongoing effort to oust Netanyahu may actually succeed. Meanwhile, Herzi Halevi, the IDF chief of staff completes a controversial army-wide round of appointments. Many see this as an attempt to save his own skin, since the appointees seem to subscribe to the same group-think that got us October 7, and may therefore be less critical of Halevi's colossal failure on that fateful Shabbat.

After discussing the growing tensions between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Gadi describes for Mike two research reports in Israel in which Palestinian officials brag about the numbers of their security personnel who participate in terror attacks against Israeli Jews. Still there are some veterans of Israel's security establishment who agree with the Biden administration's plan to hand Gaza over to a "reformed and revitalized" Palestinian Authority once the war ends. One such veteran is former Shin Bet (Shabak) chief Nadav Argaman, who recently said, "The Palestinian Authority is not a body that encourages terrorism." Gadi and Mike believe Argaman belongs to that segment of Israel's elite which, in sharp contrast to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, sees getting along with Washington as more important than reflecting the will of the Israeli people, who overwhelmingly reject the Palestinian Authority as a partner for stabilizing Gaza. Links: For a discussion of Hamas theology see our in-depth special: https://rumble.com/v435jt2-in-depth-special-hamas-theology-and-ideology.html The "Terrorists in Uniform" PMW report: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/l1do2pdiatfti2z8dmft7/PMW-Special-Report-Terrorists-in-Uniform-Jan-31-2024.pdf?rlkey=5tizg0w3ga6z2ds9ov5akwuim&e=1&dl=0

This is not a regular episode of our podcast. These are the opening remarks by the three distinguished speakers on this panel, Batya Ungar-Sargon, Mariam Memarsadeghi, and Nina Power. The Webinar was moderated by Gabriel Noah Brahm at the Telos-Paul Piccone Institute's yearlong series reckoning with the response to the atrocities on October 7. For the full webinar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ad77jEdZDY&t=122s For the full schedule of webinars on October 7: https://www.telosinstitute.net/israel-initiative/

In this in-depth special edition of Israel Update we bring you (with English subtitles) a conversation with General Itzhak Brik – the man who has been sounding the alarm about the lack of IDF preparedness for many years. The IDF brass routinely dismissed his warnings. But Israel has since learned the hard way that he was right. Brik walked us through the mistakes that brought about the decline of Israel's military force under the false conception that big wars are a thing of the past and that a small technological army would do to keep Israel safe. We also asked him how ready Israel may be for a war with Hezbollah. This conversation was recorded a month ago. We thank the indefatigable Elizabeth Rimini for her careful translation. Please visit her video channel: http://bit.ly/EliRim

King Herod was a master at using the Roman Empire in order to outmaneuver domestic opposition. But the Romans were no less shrewd at using him. The result was, eventually, the demise of Jewish independence in the land of Israel. Is the Israeli opposition attempting the same kind of move by inviting American intervention in domestic politics? Mike, Gadi and Tablet's Tony Badran discuss Gantz's visit to Washington in light of Tony's brilliant analysis of the parallels and differences between King Herod's time and our own. See Tony's original piece here: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/new-herodians-israel-biden-iran

On the night of October 6, dozens of Hamas cellphones lit up with Israeli sim cards. Army intelligence and the heads of security services did not alert the forces on the Gaza border, nor did they call in reinforcement. What is worse, the chiefs did not inform Defense Minister Yoav Gallant or Prime Minister Netanyahu. Army censorship sat on this information and journalists who knew did not press the army to release it. Mike and Gadi discuss the possible explanation and dismiss the wilder widespread conspiracy theories about it. Also on this episode: Is the American plan for "the day after" materializing, and will it stop the war soon?

Such a consensus is rare in Israeli politics. Almost the whole Knesset votes on a resolution opposed to any American attempt to force a "solution" to the conflict which Israel cannot accept (with the Arab parties voting no, and the Labor party abstaining). Gadi and Mike discus the reasons the Biden Administration may have for moving forward and recognizing a Palestinian state, what the repercussions of such a move may be, and the far reaching consequences it may have for Israel's strategic position in the region as well as for its domestic politics. Plus: this is how a group of IDF soldiers embarrassed the head of the Israeli roof organization of labor unions.

Mike and Gadi met at the Hudson Institute to assess what had changed in Israel since the Oct. 7 massacre. Although it is too early to gauge the full impact of what is by far the severest trauma Israel has ever sustained, some things are already clear: the tectonic plates have shifted, and Israel will not be the same; the political system has not yet adjusted to the change, and is still fighting old battles which will mean little for the future; the Israeli left and the American administration are both reading the map backwards, imagining an opportunity here for a "two-state solution." Both are therefore on a collision course with a newly emerging, far more hawkish Israeli consensus.

Recent revelations about the participation of UNRWA employees in the October 7 massacre have focused attention on the agency. The UN has vowed to purge it. Supporting countries are withholding funds. But the problem is not this or that employee. The problem is structural. UNRWA was born in sin. It was created to perpetuate the Palestinian refugee problem in order to prevent any solution short of the full destruction of Israel. We spoke with Dr. Adi Schwartz, co-author (with former Labor Party Knesset member Einat Wilf) of the bestselling book The War of Return about the role of UNRWA and what could be done about it.

A source in the military claims there's deep dissatisfaction among midlevel reserve officers in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) at the prospect of the war slowing down or stopping before reaching its main objectives: destroying Hamas as a military threat to Israel and as a political organization capable of ruling Gaza. Gadi also describes testimony, from a third party, that the IDF brass is ignoring orders from the security cabinet. This claim provokes a heated disagreement between Gadi and Mike, who is much more sympathetic to the IDF leadership.

Team Biden is putting the squeeze on Israel. Washington is pressing Jerusalem to accept an unpopular hostage deal. It is also issuing an executive order sanctioning Israel for "settler violence," directing the State Department to develop options for American recognition of a Palestinian state, and refusing to answer Israeli requests for arms. Meanwhile, there's still no retaliation for the attack, by Iranian backed forces, that killed three American soldiers. Mike and Gadi connect the dots between the pressure on Israel and the inaction on Iran. The Biden administration sees "de-escalation" in Gaza as the road to "de-escalation" and stability in the Middle East. Will appeasement of Iran lead to a serious falling out between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Biden? Join us for the discussion.

South Africa accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. The International Court of Justice, in The Hague, did not find in support of the accusation but its ruling on January 26 did call for Israel to, among other things, “prevent and punish” the incitement to genocide. Gadi Taub explains to Michael Doran that there is more here than meets the eye. Clever Israeli actors are using the court case to advance domestic political agendas that have no connection to the accusation of genocide. Tune in to get the full story.

It seems like former IDF chief of staff, and member of the war cabinet, General Gadi Eisenkot, has been chosen by the anti-Bibi forces as the battering ram with which to take down Netanyahu – with American assistance. Also on this episode: Mike explains how the Biden administration has tricked Israelis and American Jews into thinking the disastrous "regional integration" policy (i.e. the appeasement of Iran) is somehow in Israel's interest. Here's a clue: Saudi Arabia. And here's Gadi's piece that Mike mentioned: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/gadi-eisenkot-netanyahu-palestinian-state

Prime Minister Netanyahu faces a pincer movement from his domestic rivals and the White House. His domestic rivals are organizing protests demanding the immediate return of the hostages by means of a deal with Hamas. At the same time, the White House is working to advance just such a deal while also criticizing Netanyahu for failing to embrace a revitalized Palestinian Authority as the best way to bring peace and security to Israel. Most Israelis reject the terms of a deal that are on offer. Even more reject the Palestinian Authority. But there's a powerful elite that wants to impose it, and the cracks in the coalition are beginning to show. Plus, it's hard to say no to the United States. And here's the piece Mike was referring to: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/israel-patriotic-citizens-privileged-elites

In this in-depth special episode Gadi spoke with MK Amit Halevi who sits on the Knesset's National Security Committee. The current strategy employed by the IDF, Halevi says, will not lead to victory. It will only drag Israel into a never ending guerilla war of attrition. If Israel is to win this war, it must begin to think in terms of control: it must take control of the border between Egypt and Gaza to stop arms smuggling; it must distribute the humanitarian aid itself, to disruptHamas's system of patronage; it must exclude diesel fuel from all aid packages, becausefuel is what keeps the underground tunnel system alive; it must dividethe Gaza strip into five areas and control movement between them; and finally, it must extract a price in land - the only price that counts in the eyes of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.

A newly published investigative piece in Israel's daily Yedioth Ahronoth recounts the blow by blow failure of Israel's army on that fateful morning. How could a low-tech relatively small terror organization outsmart a high-tech giant with a modern state behind it? Michael Doran and Gadi Taub discuss the main findings. Evidently, Hamas understood exactly how the IDF operates, while the IDF made erroneous speculations about Hamas's intentions at the expense of studying its MO and its capabilities.

Mike is now visiting Israel, and had the opportunity to get a firsthand impression of how things have changed. There's a strong sense of unity and common fate among Israelis, and especially among those in active military service. But there's also an increasingly vocal demand to understand what went wrong, especially what went wrong with the IDF. There are many unanswered questions, waiting for a reckoning. Michael Doran and Gadi Taub discuss them in this face to face conversation, recorded in the lobby of a hotel up in the Golan Heights, not far from the Lebanon border.

Israel's Supreme Court has usurped the power to control the process of constitution writing, and while at it, it also legitimized the bizarre idea that an Attorney General can remove a sitting prime minister without trial. We spoke with Professor Moshe Cohen-Eliya, former President of the College of Law and Business, to help make sense of the increasingly surreal world of Israeli jurisprudence.

The world of Israeli jurisprudence is so surreal, you have to pinch yourself to believe what you see. This week the court first struck down a constitutional amendment, then declared judicial authority to remove a sitting prime minister. Michael Doran and Gadi Taub explain what the judges are up to, and what the consequences may be. Because apart from judicial theory, these decisions have political implications for the war: they threaten to throw Israel back into the controversies about judicial reform that tore the country apart before October 7. Meanwhile the war may be widening in the north, after the assassination of Hamas's West Bank chief, Saleh al-Arouri. The hit was carried out in Beirut and is widely attributed to Israel. And if so, says Mike, this is a message not just to Hamas and Hezbollah, but also to the US which is trying to retrain Israel on the northern front. And then there are also Mike's and Gadi's picks for the dumbest take on the news. And for those who want to go back in time to the introduction of the failed legal reform, here's Mister Yariv Levin laying out the plan before it was aborted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGwLCjAzIIg

Gadi Taub and Mike Doran see Israeli politics returning with a vengeance. The Israeli left, with an assist from elements in the military, is promoting a campaign depicting "settler violence" in the West Bank as the impediment to a two-state solution. Meanwhile the Israeli Supreme Court has nullified an amendment to a semi-constitutional Basic Law, thus taking for itself veto power over the formation of what Israel has for a constitution. The campaign against the settlers and the move to overturn the law both target the right. These developments come as the Biden administration is pushing Prime Minister Netanyahu to ride roughshod over his rightwing coalition partners who oppose the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza.