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Robert Bryce: How the Green Promise is Making the West Poorer
In a not-to-be-missed episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest, Robert Bryce. Robert is an author, journalist, film producer, and public speaker.
Together, they delve into energy issues as Bryce voices his concerns over the fragility of the electric grid and the potential consequences of underestimating the value of a reliable energy supply. He recounts personal experiences with power disruptions and highlights significant contrasts between developed countries' energy abundance and challenges faced in places like South Africa and Beirut. The discussion centers on the 2021 Texas blackout, which shed light on renewable energy's role during the crisis and its limitations when needed most. Bryce underscores the danger of making the electric grid overly reliant on non-base load power. He advocates for recognizing natural gas's crucial role in securing energy stability during inclement weather. He also criticizes initiatives like Michael Bloomberg's Beyond Carbon Campaign, as they could potentially worsen the grid's vulnerability and threaten national energy security.
Robert raises concerns about inaccurate information and analysis regarding the energy landscape, specifically concerning hydrogen being misrepresented as a renewable resource by certain media outlets. He laments the negative impact of these misleading narratives on public understanding and decision-making processes. They also discuss challenges of the hydrogen fuel cycle and why it's more of a transportation carrier system than an energy source.
Robert discusses how modern energy policy is regressive in nature and its outsized impact on poverty and the wealth gap. He argues that these policies, including those related to climate change and electric vehicles, increase electricity costs disproportionately for low-income and middle-class households despite Democrats' advocacy for the public's welfare. Robert believes that energy affordability should be a bipartisan concern due to its critical role in the overall economy. He also criticizes the media's portrayal of the global energy transition, pointing out that developing countries like China and India are not adhering to the same goals as the West, focusing instead on building coal power plants to meet their immediate energy needs.
Robert advocates for pragmatism and a clear-eyed approach to energy production and consumption. He shares his skepticism towards renewable energy's low power density sources, such as wind and solar, and champions high power density sources like natural gas and nuclear. Robert also criticizes the corporatism surrounding renewable energy development and emphasizes the importance of understanding the realities of energy needs in light of increasing demand from developing countries.
Lastly, they explore the challenges of rapidly transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) from a fossil fuel-based system. Despite promises, EVs are not yet capable of replacing oil as a critical commodity for commerce due to the enormous energy consumption in the U.S. transportation sector. The limitations and challenges of batteries, including their energy density, material intensity, and dependence on Chinese supply chains, are discussed. The Biden administration's energy policies are criticized for making the auto sector dependent on components from overseas while stifling the development of oil and coal-based power sources. Financial losses incurred by EV manufacturers like Ford and Rivian are highlighted, questioning the rationality and pragmatism of current industrial and energy policies.
Robert encourages people to become informed on these topics and to explain the situation to friends and family. It's important for people to understand the world's reliance on energy and why it's crucial to humanity.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Taking Energy for Granted
3:15 - Texas Blackouts - Causes
5:13 - GRID Stability & NatGas
7:03 - Media Accuracy & Bias
11:33 - EROI & Alternatives
14:50 - Fuel Cell Technology
16:03 - Energy Policy & Poverty
19:18 - Energy "Transitions" Charts
22:33 - Germany Coal Use
25:09 - Climate is a Concern
27:18 - Subsidies & Tax Credits
33:44 - EVs and Real Impacts
41:00 - Electric Motorcycles
41:52 - The 10000$ Question
44:47 - Commodities & Debasement
51:45 - Peak Oil Thoughts
55:05 - Efficiencies & Plastic
58:48 - Incentives & Nuclear
1:04:15 - Educate Yourself
1:07:02 - JuiceTheSeries & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/pwrhungry
Website https://juicetheseries.com
Website: http://powerhungrypodcast.com/
Website: https://robertbryce.substack.com
Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/robertbryce
Robert Bryce is a Texas-based author, journalist, film producer, and podcaster. The host of the Power Hungry Podcast, Bryce has been writing about energy, power, innovation, and politics for more than 30 years. His articles have appeared in a myriad of publications including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Forbes, Time, Austin Chronicle, and Sydney Morning Herald. His sixth book, A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations, was published in 2020 by PublicAffairs. He is also the producer of a feature-length documentary film: Juice: How Electricity Explains the World, which is available on iTunes, Amazon Prime, and numerous other streaming platforms. He lives in Austin with his wife, Lorin, who is an art teacher, photographer, and master potter.
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Greg Weldon: Debasement, Currencies, Inflation, and Commodities - A Look Ahead
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Greg Weldon, the publisher of Global Macro Strategy Report and the Gold Guru, for a discussion on the US markets, with a focus on the economy and consumer spending. With over four decades of experience in financial markets and commodity trading, Greg expresses concerns about economic stress despite celebratory employment reports, citing labor market conditions worsening with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates. Consumers are also facing increasing credit card and auto loan delinquencies while disposable income decreases and government handouts account for an expanding share.
Greg suggests the economy might already be rolling over, and the Fed would like to see asset prices decrease before declaring victory in inflation, despite the policy rate being higher than current inflation. Commercial real estate is another major concern, with the Fed seeming behind the curve.
Greg shares his perspective that the Fed might be showing a willingness to accept higher general rates of inflation to protect consumers and the economy despite risks of inducing a credit crunch. The discussion touches upon Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's challenges in maintaining an apolitical stance during the divisive US election year and potential social unrest leading to economic negatives. Greg also mentions commercial real estate debt due in the next 12 months, which could lead to bank failures for regional banks holding 80% of that debt.
Greg discusses the implications of a consumer wake-up call in the stock market or another Plaza Accord-like agreement among major global powers as potential catalysts for the U.S. dollar's next round of debasement. He also mentions natural events, climate change, and geopolitical conflicts that could impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold. Greg encourages being aggressive defensively by shorting the S&P 500 when the time comes and suggests optimism about future performance for platinum and certain mining shares. He believes mining as a whole will benefit from increased enthusiasm towards gold.
Lastly, Mr. Weldon emphasizes the importance of staying adaptive, not being bound by historical prices or market assumptions, researching a good Commodity Trading Advisor, importance of proper risk management, and understanding futures trading.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Heavy Policies & Elections
4:50 - CPI Understated?
6:29 - Consumer Credit Stress
8:57 - Powell & Asset Prices
10:08 - Fed Watching Gold?
12:54 - Fed Inflation Targets
15:20 - Inflation Metrics?
19:26 - Powell & Elections
21:38 - Bank Failure Risks
25:47 - Dollar Risk & C.B Cuts
32:13 - Defensive Plays
34:15 - Dollar/Gold Correlation
37:27 - Stock Markets & Currencies
39:48 - Gold Market Considerations
45:23 - Platinum Thoughts
47:12 - Mining Sector Vs. Metals
50:00 - Concluding Thoughts
51:20 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why the economy may already be rolling over, with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates, despite positive employment reports.
- The Fed might accept higher inflation to protect consumers and the economy, potentially causing a credit crunch.
- Natural events, climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and consumer behavior could significantly impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold.
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.weldononline.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/WeldonLIVE
Money Podcast: https://twitter.com/money_podcast
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldon
E-Mail: sales@weldononline.com
Greg Weldon is a veteran in the global financial markets industry with over 40 years of experience. He started his career as a floor trader on the COMEX and later worked as a broker for Lehman Brothers and Prudential Securities. He then became a proprietary money manager for hedge funds Moore Capital Management and Commodities Corporation. In 1998, he founded Weldon Financial and has been producing independent research ever since. His clients include top hedge funds, banks, government agencies, and individual investors.
WeldonLIVE, his flagship service, provides a comprehensive market research report, including live commentary. The service covers global economic reports, supply-demand fundamentals, monetary trends, and their impact on stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets. Weldon combines a top-down macro approach with technical analysis to offer a broad view of market trends. He provides market recommendations in sectors such as stock indexes, metals, currencies, fixed-income, energy, and commodities.
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Tony Anscombe: Beyond the Surface - The Crucial Role of Cybersecurity in Mining
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Tony Anscombe, ESET Chief Security Evangelist, to discuss cybersecurity in the mining sector. With over three decades in IT and cybersecurity, Anscombe stresses that security fundamentals remain crucial despite technological advancements. He highlights vulnerabilities from remote locations, outdated technology, third parties, and activists/nation states. Mining companies face significant risks, including fatalities and financial losses. AI's growing role in mining brings cybersecurity concerns such as AI poisoning. A comprehensive cybersecurity framework is necessary, along with advanced technologies like EDR systems. The financial cost of cyber attacks can reach $14 trillion by 2027, affecting industries, including mining. Companies must prioritize cybersecurity and involve third parties to adhere to security policies. Anscombe also touches on the ethical implications and potential international collaboration in AI development.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:30 - Tony's Background
2:03 - Industrial Security
6:47 - Potential Risks
10:37 - Attack Vectors
12:32 - 3rd Party Liability
14:30 - AI & Cyber Security
17:30 - Practical Solutions
19:50 - Capable People
20:58 - Global Impacts & Costs
24:16 - Reporting & Regulations
27:02 - Technical Glitches?
30:04 - AI Risks & Benefits
33:57 - Restricting AI?
36:19 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Mining companies face significant cybersecurity risks due to remote locations, outdated technology, third parties, and activists/nation states.
- A comprehensive cybersecurity framework and advanced technologies like EDR systems are necessary to mitigate mining sector risks.
- The financial cost of cyber attacks can exceed $14 trillion by 2027, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing cybersecurity for all industries.
Guest Links
https://www.welivesecurity.com/en/
https://twitter.com/TonyAtESET
Tony Anscombe is Chief Security Evangelist for ESET. With over 20 years of security industry experience, Anscombe is an established author, blogger and speaker on the current threat landscape, security technologies and products, data protection, privacy and trust, and Internet safety. His speaking portfolio includes industry conferences RSA, Black Hat, VB, CTIA, MEF, Gartner Risk and Security Summit and the Child Internet Safety Summit (CIS). He is regularly quoted in cybersecurity, technology and business media, including BBC, Dark Reading, the Guardian, the New York Times and USA Today, with broadcast appearances on Bloomberg, BBC, CTV, KRON and CBS. Anscombe is a current board member of the NCSA and FOSI. Tony is based in the USA and represents ESET globally.
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David Jensen: The London Metals Exchanges are the Crux of Market Pricing
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back mining executive and metals analyst David Jensen. Together they revisit concerns around the London gold market's dominance, estimated to account for 91-92% of the global gold trade. This is thanks to the Bank of England's 'regulatory oversight' since 1986, permitting unallocated gold contracts instead of physical bars. The market trades $500 billion of gold daily and 2.9 billion ounces of silver. However, only around 3.5% of London's vaulted gold is actual physical. They contrast the LBMA with the Shanghai gold market and point out the key differences.
David argues that the London market functions as a price-setting mechanism rather than one of price discovery. They discuss Gibson's paradox, where interest rates follow price levels rather than inflation rate. Central banks benefit from this control scheme due to their control over monetary policy and debt levels using gold and silver as loose policy indicators.
David delves deeper into the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), which regulates through a voluntary code of conduct called NIPPS which is under Bank of England oversight. The metals market are dominated in London, with around 90% global cash trading occurring there.
David raises concerns over the transparency and authenticity of silver holdings in Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), questioning claims against metal, sub-custodians, potential rehypothecation or selling. The actual amount of silver held and its implications for interest rates and the economy if pricing proves fictitious are discussed.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:12 - Size of London Market
7:07 - Paper Claims on Metals
8:45 - Silver a Virtual Asset?
9:50 - Opaque Market & Claims
14:44 - Fractional Reserve Metals?
15:57 - LBMA 'Code of Conduct'
20:54 - Who Watches the Watchers
22:09 - Settlement Definition
24:29 - London Vs. New York
25:35 - Futures & Cash Markets
30:20 - ETFs & Bullion Banks
33:08 - Honesty & Transparency?
38:13 - Criticality Theory
41:10 - Scales & Incentives
42:18 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- London gold market dominates, allowing unallocated contracts. Central banks benefit from opacity, influencing monetary policy.
- Questions about physical holdings vs. claims in London's vaults impacting interest rates and the economy.
- Transparency concerns regarding ETF silver holdings, potential rehypothecation or selling of metal claims.
Guest Links:
Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/
Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensen
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/j_stars/
Jeff Currie Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxpDsUmQRE
David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
Returning first to aviation, then, after reading Austrian School Economics, Mr. Jensen transitioned to the mining industry in 2004. First through his mining industry consultancy, then as Vice President of Corporate Development for Western Copper Corp., and most recently as President and COO of Skyline Gold.
Mr. Jensen currently serves as President and COO of a private mining company and provides strategic, operational, risk assessment, and precious metals consulting services through his consultancy, Jensen Strategic.
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John Lee: The Epiphany Moment for Markets! - Historic Shifts Ahead
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back John Lee, a seasoned CFA with two decades in the mining industry, to discuss economic trends and his predictions since their last conversation in September 2022. Reflecting on past discussions, they touch upon various topics including the irrationality of silver markets, U.S. dollar's rise, and the surprising impact of geopolitics on commodities like oil.
John shares his perspective on current economic issues such as persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and an inverted yield curve. He admits some errors in earlier predictions but maintains a thoughtful analysis of macroeconomic trends. John believes that large financial institutions and tech companies have significant influence on markets and are not swayed by interest rate hikes in the same way as ordinary investors.
John discusses the role of the Federal Reserve and the potential motivations behind its actions, questioning whether its primary goal is to control inflation or facilitate asset accumulation for the powerful elite. He also delves into the impact of demographics on commodities and the economy. Despite less consumer demand due to underreported population numbers in some countries like China, John remains bullish on investment demand for metals like gold.
John shares his concerns about the upcoming election and its potential market impact, believing that central banks and cartels have more control over market movements than politicians. He also advises preparing for an exit strategy with diversified assets in various currencies, metals, and geographic regions. John encourages listeners to explore his work on Twitter under the username 'John Lee Silver Elephant' for insights on gold, silver, and interest rates. Currently, he recommends waiting for further dollar weakness before making significant purchases of these metals.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introductions
0:40 - Changes & Surprises
6:02 - Rate Hikes & No Crash?
12:12 - Thoughts on the Fed
15:53 - Yield Curve Inversion
20:52 - The Dollar & Cent. Banks
23:45 - Demographics & Commodities
29:16 - China & Economic Reporting
33:26 - Silver/Gold Ratio & Uses
38:10 - Golds Role & Public
47:27 - Election Uncertainties
50:42 - Conflict Risks & Fragility
58:46 - Diversification & Plan B
1:05:38 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Central banks and large entities manipulate markets, minimizing impact of interest rate hikes on ordinary investors.
- How demographics and geopolitical factors can influence commodity demand and prices.
- Why gold remains a valuable long-term investment due to increasing central bank concerns and potential digital currency adoption.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/johnlee25893955
Website: https://www.silverelef.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-lee-baa93422/
John Lee, CFA, is CEO and President of Silver Elephant Mining. Mr. Lee specializes in mining M&A and has raised over $150 million through the TSX and TSX Venture Exchange for junior companies since 2009. Lee identified, negotiated and financed Lynn Lake nickel acquisition in 2009, Ulaan Ovoo coal in 2010, Wellgreen nickel-pgm in 2011, Shakespeare nickel-pgm in 2012, Pulacayo silver in 2015, Gibellini vanadium in 2017, Bisoni vanadium in 2020, and Minago nickel-pgm in 2021. Mr. Lee is a CFA charterholder and graduated from Rice University with bachelor’s degrees in Economics and in Engineering (honor).
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Rick Rule: The Sure Money to be made in Uranium is Dead Ahead
In this engaging interview, Tom Bodrovics once again engages in a thoughtful conversation with the legendary Rick Rule. Throughout their discussion, Rick underscores the significance of patience, persistence, and the power of people when it comes to thriving in equities. He also champions Warren Buffett's concept of compounding as a vital principle for long-term prosperity.
Rick shares his belief that individuals should prioritize self-reliance over reliance on the political system. He cautions against jumping to hasty conclusions based on market narratives. In terms of economic forecasts, Rick expresses concerns about imminent recessions in both the US and globally, advocating that individuals maintain liquidity and top-tier portfolios to navigate market dips.
Rick further discusses Warren Buffett's investment philosophies, emphasizing the importance of concentrating on industries in which one is knowledgeable.
Rick believes that gold could outperform various other asset classes due to its present insignificant market presence, coupled with Europe potentially distancing itself from the US. He posits that while the US dollar will continue as a reserve currency, it may face challenges from the developing multi-polar world.
Rick believes government will generally choose various covert methods of confiscating wealth from the population instead of direct overt action. Methods like inflating the money supply and taxation are far more likely than direct metals confiscation.
Rick also voices concerns regarding the banking system's stability given unrealized losses totaling $517 billion and looming debt maturities. He raises issues of insolvency for lenders due to a disparity between long-term assets and overnight liabilities, as well as commercial real estate portfolios. Rick encourages having some bullion as non-correlated cash offering options during tumultuous markets.
Lastly, Rick shares his insights on the Canadian and US banking systems, appreciating Canada's banks for higher profitability for shareholders but less favorable conditions for borrowers due to minimal competition. The US market, however, offers a broader selection of financial institutions catering to various clientele as both lenders and borrowers. Rick also highlights his efforts in establishing Battle Bank and the necessity of earning interest on savings.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:37 - Lessons Learned
7:54 - Elections & Investors
10:18 - Education & Blaming Society
12:24 - Recession Probabilities
15:23 - New Paradigms & Understanding
22:16 - The World & Gold
23:50 - Multi-Polar Outlook
26:36 - Covert or Overt Confiscation
29:14 - State of the Uranium Cycle
32:45 - FDIC & Lender Insolvency
35:25 - Commercial Real Estate
37:49 - What You Want in a Bank?
39:25 - Savings, CPI, & Hedonics
41:46 - U.S. Vs. Canadian Banks
44:00 - Return Free Risk
47:24 - Living Standards & Needs
50:34 - Developed Demographics
52:26 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Rick Rule emphasizes patience, persistence, self-reliance, and knowledge for success in equities, with a focus on Warren Buffett's compounding principle for long-term prosperity. He also expresses concerns about imminent recessions and advocates maintaining liquidity and top-tier portfolios.
- Rule believes in the potential of gold as an asset class due to its insignificant market presence and Europe distancing from the US, while warning about government covert methods of wealth confiscation and instability in the banking system. He encourages having some bullion during market dips.
- Rick values Canada's banks for higher profitability but less favorable conditions for borrowers due to minimal competition. In contrast, he highlights the US market's broader selection of financial institutions catering to various clientele as both lenders and borrowers. He also discusses his efforts in establishing Battle Bank.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickrule
Twitter: https://twitter.com/realinvestmentmedia
Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMedia
Classroom: https://ruleclassroom.com
Bootcamp 2024: https://hopin.com/events/rick-rule-s-winter-investors-bootcamp/registration
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.
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Bob Elliot: Wage Growth is Now Helping to Drive Inflation
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Elliott, Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited Funds, who shares his insights on how to evaluate skills from luck in investment outcomes. The discussion also touched upon the current state of inflation in developed countries like Europe, the UK, and the US. Despite recent supply shocks causing higher price growth, wages have matched or surpassed it, resulting in elevated rates exceeding central bank targets.
Elliott also addressed the concerns of central bankers regarding debt and income dynamics, mentioning the risks of negative reinforcing cycles and comparing credit-driven economic expansions to sustainable income-driven ones. The speakers discussed the relationship between government deficits and economic growth, debating whether high levels lead to significant stimulus or a large debt burden.
Regarding labor markets, Bob addressed the rising costs of inflation and the impact on reshoring production in the US. The speakers touched upon de-globalization, parallel supply chains, and shipping costs as causes for price increases and disruptions. The Fed's current monetary policy stance was discussed, with potential future actions debated due to low unemployment and while inflation is still above target.
Bob questioned the significance of specific labor market numbersand he also touched upon why the US economy avoided a recession despite predictions. In this income-driven environment, Bob discussed the shift from growth to value stocks and the impact on investable assets in sectors with earnings and market consolidation. The supercycle in resource markets was also discussed highighting investment lags behind demand and potential higher commodity prices contributing to inflation.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:47 - Investing Luck Vs. Skill
4:18 - Understanding Biases
6:54 - Evaluating Advisors
10:05 - High Inflation & Rate Cuts
13:06 - Why a 2% CPI Target
16:56 - Time Preference & Demand
20:12 - Types of Economic Expansion
27:39 - Deficits & Growth
30:32 - Inflation Forces
33:52 - Goods Deflation & Supply
37:30 - Reshoring & Labor Costs
40:16 - Shipping & Disruptions
43:24 - Container Ship Costs
45:35 - Fed & Rate Cutting?
48:02 - Labor Data & Noise
50:05 - Global Bond Markets
53:23 - U.S. Resilience?
55:40 - Value Vs. Growth
59:00 - Sectors & Resource Cycles
1:03:52 - Wrap Up
Talking Points from This Episode
- Bob Elliott emphasizes the role of both skills and luck in investment outcomes, suggesting investors focus on evaluating individuals' ability to make informed decisions rather than solely relying on past successes.
- Central banks are grappling with rising inflation rates exceeding targets due to wage growth matching or surpassing price increases in developed countries like Europe, the UK, and the US.
- Elliott discusses the shift from growth to value stocks amid an income-driven economic environment, highlighting the importance of investing in sectors with earnings and market consolidation.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited
Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital and private equity.
Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio's personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He's the author of hundreds of Bridgewater's widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world's foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues.
Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. There he revamped the investment strategy for the company's $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions.
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Michael Oliver & Vince Lanci: Part Two - Will The Next Presidential Cycle See The End Of The Fed
In Part Two with Michael Oliver and Vince Lanci we discuss the growing political and economic uncertainties revolving around the upcoming 2024 election.
Michael highlights the potential chaos and unrest during the election. He suggests that if the stock market broke before the election, the Democratic Party might consider replacing Biden due to their emphasis on market performance. Tom mentions a poll indicating deep-rooted political divisions, with each party believing a win by the opposite would cause lasting harm to the country. This instability, Michael believes, is not being factored into markets and could lead to major shifts for global investors.
The duo expressed concerns about the upcoming election's impact on markets and society, emphasizing that elections usually bring uncertainty but, due to deep-rooted political divisions in the US, there is a higher risk of prolonged uncertainty. This could result in increased stock market volatility and even a contested election outcome. They mentioned historical examples like the 2008 election, secession attempts, and the role of gold during such times.
They also touch upon potential implications for gold markets if the U.S. election was contested. They emphasize buying dips instead of selling rallies for gold and silver as alternatives to a volatile stock market. They see gold as a competitive alternative when the stock market experiences volatility.
Furthermore, the conversation explored potential crises or geopolitical events that could lead to the suspension of the upcoming election, including manufactured ones. The speakers also touched upon the role of gold as a metric of economic stability and its potential impact on the election. Additionally, they reflected on the changing political landscape, the influence of various parties and foreign conflicts on the election outcome, and the potential consequences for free speech, civil unrest, inflation, monetary policy, and individual freedoms.
Time Stamp References:
00:00 - Introduction
00:51 - Fed & Panic Mode
08:40 - 2024 Election Chaos?
13:26 - Argentina & Milei
19:33 - Seceding Successfully?
24:41 - Fed Going Away?
26:04 - Censorship & Free Speech
29:10 - Suspension of Elections?
31:18 - Geopolitical Black Swans
37:03 - The Uni-Party & RFK
39:56 - Metals & Signposts
40:33 - Volatility & Buy The Dips
42:17 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The upcoming 2024 U.S. election is causing significant political and economic uncertainty which the markets have not priced in.
- Deep-rooted political divisions indicate a higher risk of prolonged uncertainty, increasing stock market volatility and potential for a market correction
- Gold could serve as an alternative investment during such volatile stock markets and potential black swan like events.
Vince Lanci - Guest Links
Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisades
Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sorenthek
ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS's parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000, he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.
Michael Oliver - Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
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Michael Oliver & Vince Lanci: Part One - We Have Entered A Precious Metals Acceleration Phase
In this Palisades podcast episode, Tom welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis and Vince Lanci, publisher of the Goldfix Substack. The discussion covers various markets - metals, equity indexes, commodities - and in part two, the upcoming election.
Michael Oliver initiates the conversation by analyzing the NASDAQ's remarkable growth since the 2009 Bear Low and its significance as a leading index due to its substantial percentage gain. He attributes this influx of funds to the M2 chart or Fed funds rate chart, directing investment into the stock market at that time. Michael then pivots towards the current market situation, sharing his view on momentum analysis and the election's potential impact, emphasizing the importance of examining trends beyond just price. He points to a major sell signal in January 2022, causing a steep decline followed by recovery.
Vince Lanci contributes by addressing the narrowing breadth in the stock market. He stresses that leadership changes are vital for overall market health and believes there's currently no breadth, limiting options if AI leadership falters. Vince explains how the stock indexes have shrunk from a broader group to key players.
The discussion also touches on copper and natural gas commodities before focusing on precious metals. Michael highlights the deceptive nature of the acceleration phase in a bull market and the significance of understanding trends and structures rather than relying solely on popular indicators like RSI or MACD.
They further delve into investment strategies based on silver market analysis and historical trends, sharing personal experiences and anticipating precious metals market movements due to geopolitical tensions and central banks' actions. Vince also brings a geopolitical perspective, focusing on central banks and sovereign wealth funds buying silver as an international trade collateral store of value.
They explore the potential for a new Bretton Woods and gold's ability to anticipate economic trends. Vince expects significant precious metals market movements due to the anticipated end of fiat currency and gold's role in predicting economic shifts, with concern about commercial real estate and stock markets potentially being affected by central banks' involvement.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:02 - Nasdaq & Momentum
4:58 - Nvidia & Stock Markets?
10:38 - Copper Importance
12:53 - Natural Gas Chart
18:44 - Past Silver Bull Mkts.
24:30 - Momentum & Timeframes
26:38 - Maintaining Perspective
34:09 - Silver Spread Vs. Gold
37:40 - C.B. Gold Buying & BRICS
43:43 - Gold & The End of Fiat
Talking Points From This Episode
- Michael Oliver discusses the NASDAQ's growth, attributing it to funds shift post-financial crisis, emphasizing importance of understanding market trends beyond just price.
- Vince Lanci highlights narrowing stock market breadth and stresses leadership changes are crucial for overall health and potential risks if it falters.
- They explore investment strategies in precious metals, discussing historical trends, geopolitical tensions, and central banks' role.
Vince Lanci - Guest Links
Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisades
Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sorenthek
ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS's parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000, he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.
Michael Oliver - Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
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Francis Hunt: Death of Fiat Money Means Incredible Targets for Gold, Silver, & Copper
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Francis Hunt, also known as the Market Sniper, for a discussion on the importance of shared experiences, living deliberately beyond the financial world, and the upcoming gold and silver discussion focusing on preserving assets during monetary transition. They emphasize the significance of understanding reality, accepting limitations, and building bonds for amplified experiences. Francis discusses the current economic situation involving debt contraction and the seesaw analogy representing nation states' debt levels and currencies. Japan's excessive debt is predicted to cause a currency collapse, leading to significant losses for various assets, including the 30-year treasury.
Francis discusses the reasons for owning physical gold, silver, and land as means to escape both systems and maintain control over possessions. He also discuss the importance of investing in industrial metals like copper as part of an inflation hedge during currency devaluation and suggest investing in commodities while shorting debt and fiat currencies. Francis predicts that gold will reach 2897, and silver may surpass it, in a parabolic phase of financial instability. They also analyze the performance of precious metals like Platinum, which has underperformed since 2009 but could experience overperformance based on historical trends and cross-valuation.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
9:55 - Analyze & Take Action
13:32 - Resiliance & Emotions
17:07 - Debt/Fiat Contraction
19:56 - US 30Y Treasury Chart
25:25 - Own Nothing and Be?
29:23 - System Breaking & Gold
32:30 - Fed & Who Prices Debt
34:00 - Bond Rates & Control
36:05 - Gold/Dollar Chart
43:44 - 30Y Debt Reversion
46:37 - Shrinking Dollar Value
48:00 - Silver Levels & Support
53:30 - Gold/Silver Ratio
59:20 - Copper Chart
1:01:42 - Coffee Chart
1:03:48 - Gaps Down in Bull Runs
1:06:39 - UPS Parcel Chart
1:09:48 - Case For Platinum
1:19:22 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Amidst economic instability, owning physical gold, silver, and land provides control over possessions and escapes debt-based systems.
- Platinum has underperformed since 2009 but could experience overperformance due to historical trends and cross-valuation.
- Invest in commodities like gold, silver, and platinum while shorting debt and fiat currencies during stagflation.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniper
Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecryptosniper
Website: https://themarketsniper.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
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David Jensen: We Are In The End-Stages of Bullion Banks Ability to Modulate the Silver Price
In this episode of Palisades, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back metals analyst David Jensen to discuss the volatile gold and silver markets, with a focus on the London market's reliance on promissory notes for trading and its potential physical supply issues leading to risks of default. They also touch upon the large trading volumes in London, deficits in the silver market, increasing demand from China, and concerns over retail investors influencing silver prices due to ETF manipulation and rehypothecation.
David shares his perspective on factors affecting the silver market during the 2020-2021 silver squeeze, including inventory disappearance in China, Shanghai exchange's influence, potential catalysts like central banks buying gold or conflicts, and the City of London's involvement in a longstanding global gold and silver fraud.
The conversation further explores the impact of various factors on gold and silver markets, including concerns about transparency regarding lease rates, central bank sourcing of metal, and potential consequences for major banks if they cannot cover contract losses. Overall, Jensen emphasizes the importance of understanding the significance of physical supply issues in the metals market and staying informed to avoid ignoring important matters.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:37 - Rehypothecation & London
7:17 - Bullion Banks & Physical
13:20 - Paper Ponzi?
15:08 - ETF Drawdowns & Supply
17:23 - Jeff Currie Comments
19:00 - Bullion & China Influence
23:17 - News Driven Catalysts
26:30 - Money Supply & Bank Buying
29:15 - Demand Picture & Drawdowns
30:35 - C.B. Metal Sourcing?
32:22 - Debt & The Silver Lynchpin
39:12 - Media & Reaching People
41:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- David discusses volatile gold and silver prices due to physical supply issues in the London market.
- Jensen warns of potential risk of default from reliance on promissory notes in London gold and silver trading.
- He highlights significant deficits and dwindling inventories in the silver market, which will eventually cause a crisis.
Guest Links:
Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/
Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensen
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/j_stars/
Jeff Currie Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxpDsUmQRE
David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
Returning first to aviation, then, after reading Austrian School Economics, Mr. Jensen transitioned to the mining industry in 2004. First through his mining industry consultancy, then as Vice President of Corporate Development for Western Copper Corp., and most recently as President and COO of Skyline Gold.
Mr. Jensen currently serves as President and COO of a private mining company and provides strategic, operational, risk assessment, and precious metals consulting services through his consultancy, Jensen Strategic.
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David Murrin: War Equals Massive Inflation
In this Palisades interview, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back hosts global forecaster David Murin to delve into the differences between lateral and linear thinking in the context of current world conflicts. Murin posits that empires cycle through phases of thinking, with laterals leading initially and linears taking control as empires mature. He attributes the current global climate to an unprecedented level of linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing over the past two decades, which has left societies inflexible to dynamic threats.
Murin further discusses geopolitical implications, particularly regarding the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea and its significance for American maritime hegemony. He raises concerns about China's involvement and advanced military capabilities, emphasizing the importance of maintaining control over critical sea lanes for wealth and resource extraction.
Murin believes historical cycles of war could have been avoided with greater awareness and full-spectrum deterrence, aligning with the 112-year contractive cycle that has led to hegemonic conflicts throughout history.
David also shares his views on China's strategic intentions and resource acquisitions, arguing that China is not primarily concerned with wartime resource gathering but rather denying resources to the West. He points to Argentina as an example where Chinese interests were rejected, giving the West a foothold in the region. Murin suggests Western engagement and political activism are necessary for regime change in countries with autocratic regimes.
He uses numerous price-based systems to understand various markets and sectors, predicting a decline in bond prices and increased inflation for commodities due to excess demand from fiat money. David sees the current situation as a commodity supercycle that affects the entire commodities complex and causes inflation for all physical resources. War contributes to inflation during these cycles. Murin warns of impending wars, emphasizing the importance of adapting and strong leadership in response to threats.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:02 - Types of Thinking
6:20 - Shipping & Shrinking Empire
12:40 - Inevitable Conflict?
16:07 - China Growth & Cycles
20:37 - The Art of War
24:12 - BRICS & China
26:33 - Fentanyl Problem
28:10 - Results of Energy Tariffs
31:33 - Inflation & Central Banks
36:48 - Models & Mkt. Behavior
38:32 - Bond Markets & Gold
42:40 - War & Inflation
43:53 - Important Developments
46:00 - War is Upon Us
49:01 - U.S. Navy & Defense
52:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Empires cycle through lateral and linear thinking phases, with current global climate characterized by unprecedented linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing.
- Geopolitical implications include challenges to American maritime hegemony in the Red Sea and China's potential denial of resources to the West.
- Historical cycles indicate ongoing hegemonic conflicts and the importance of full-spectrum deterrence, with impending wars requiring quick adaptation and strong leadership.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastr
Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
Lateral Vs Linear Thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_v5720RPmw&t=636s
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today's turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.
Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.
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Michael Singleton: Commodities are Showing the True Inflation Stats
Tom welcomes back Mike Singleton, Senior Analyst and Founder at Invictus Research to the show. Mike explains his views on the business cycle, current economic trends, and their impact on asset classes like stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Mike explains that Invictus defines the business cycle as having three sub-cycles: real growth, inflation, and monetary policy. They believe these cycles drive price action across various assets. The US economy is currently reflating, indicating faster real growth and inflation. Despite inflationary pressures, federal deficits are expected to fuel manufacturing growth due to initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act.
Mike argues that investors can benefit from an inflationary cycle as it leads to potential growth in earnings. However, consumers may face challenges with rising prices, affecting their quality of life and ability to deploy capital into markets. Mike believes that for a clearer understanding of inflation, one should look at commodity prices rather than Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Mike also discusses the significance of copper miners' performance as an indicator of real economic acceleration. He suggests considering ownership of productive assets and taking on more cyclical risk when copper miners outperform copper. Oil, as an energy input, follows this trend, with demand increasing during economic expansion. Despite a recent downturn, it is viewed as a buying opportunity.
The US dollar's relationship with economic data, interest rates, and the Fed is also discussed. While the U.S. economy is outperforming other developed markets, the dollar could strengthen based on interest rate parity. However, its weakening against emerging market currencies due to their improved economic conditions is generally bullish for reflationary assets like commodities and risky investments. Invictus has launched a new mobile app with an AI-enabled chatbot providing retail investors with access to research analysis.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:33 - Three Economic Cycles
4:43 - Housing Sector Health
7:08 - Consumer Spending & Deficits
16:33 - CPI Metrics & Adjustments
18:02 - Income, Wages, & Demand
20:14 - Fed, CPI, Yields, Cuts
26:05 - Commodity Demand
30:46 - Metal Prices Vs. Miners
32:10 - Oil Market Outlook
35:23 - Strategies with Miners
38:36 - Positioning & Cash
40:10 - Investors Vs. Consumers
41:25 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- How the business cycle's sub-cycles (real growth, inflation, monetary policy) influence asset price action.
- Copper miners' outperformance signals real economic acceleration; consider productive assets and cyclical risk.
- A stronger US dollar based on interest rate parity could benefit reflationary assets like commodities.
Guest Links:
Website: https://invictus-research.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvictusMacro
Michael Singleton is Senior Analyst at Invictus. He studied finance and theology at the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated summa cum laude. After graduating, he worked for several years with Broad Run Investment Management. There he spent most of my time conducting deep, fundamental diligence on the highest quality companies. That grounding gained him a thorough, bottom-up approach to research and has proven invaluable.
Since then, his focus has been spent studying the economy at-large and its relationship with liquid asset markets. There is a massive hole in the anlysis market for timely, thoughtful, and accessible macroeconomic research. That's why he became involved at Invictus.
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John Williams: Hyperinflation and Depression - The Hidden Truth Within Our Economic Data
Tom welcomes economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to the show. Williams shares his background in economics and economic modeling, which led him to scrutinize government statistics due to their potential inaccuracies. He became particularly concerned with employment data revisions and manipulation. Despite improvements, he remains skeptical about inconsistencies' impact on forecasting accuracy.
Williams discusses the misrepresentation of inflation through changes in reporting methodologies, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This underreporting of inflation affects cost-of-living adjustments and pension payouts, leaving retirees facing significant financial challenges. The pandemic exacerbated these issues with distorted CPI reporting.
He also criticizes the current economic situation's representation through GDP growth rates, which may not accurately represent underlying economic conditions. Inflation can lead to an increase in reported real GDP without actual sales growth. The excessive money supply injected into the economy during the pandemic is another major contributor to inflation.
Despite attempts to control inflation through interest rate hikes, the economy has suffered negative growth in critical sectors like retail sales, industrial production, housing, and employment. The Federal Reserve prioritizes the banking system over the economy, making high interest rates more beneficial for banks than for consumers. The historically large disparity between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) further highlights a weak economy.
John predicts that despite rising GDP, there is a potential worsening in the next six months with underlying economic downturn and potential high or even hyperinflation. He advises holding precious metals like physical gold and silver as a hedge against inflation and preserving purchasing power during these uncertain times. Gold has been an effective hedge against inflation over the last 40 years, although it can also be manipulated.
Williams believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to intervene with monetary policies despite their inflationary effects. He encourages listeners to visit shadowgovernmentstats.com for more information and to contact him directly at johnwilliams@shadowstatts.com. His website was recently taken down, but the old site remains accessible for background information.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Government statistics, particularly inflation data, can be manipulated and underreported, leading to inaccurate economic representations.
- The Federal Reserve's priority is keeping the banking system afloat rather than addressing underlying economic issues, causing negative consequences for consumers.
- The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may not accurately represent economic conditions as it can be artificially boosted by inflation and government interventions.
- Precious metals like gold serve as a hedge against inflation and help preserve purchasing power during uncertain economic times.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Background in Business
4:15 - Models Being Redefined
12:08 - Inflation Reporting
17:26 - Releases & Revisions
25:25 - Redefining Everything
33:12 - Inflation Vs. GDP
35:37 - Inflation Causations
37:36 - Money Supply Measures
46:56 - Real Economic Outlook
50:39 - Gold - Inflation Hedge
52:35 - Fed & The Next Crisis
54:53 - Debt to GDP & Rates
59:15 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://shadowstats.com
E-Mail: johnwilliams@shadowstats.com
Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.
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Steve St. Angelo: Zombie Mining Companies Drain Shareholder Wealth
Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report for a discussion on the economics of Bitcoin mining, focusing on the lifespan and economic viability of Bitcoin mining hardware. According to St. Angelo, major US Bitcoin miners Marathon and Riot account for significant portions of global hash rate production, with Bitcoin mining consuming approximately 1-2% of US electricity. However, Bitcoin miners' hardware depreciates rapidly; while they last five years, they become almost obsolete in two years, producing only around 90% of their total Bitcoin output by that time.
St. Angelo discusses the implications of this rapid depreciation on sustainability and profitability, raising concerns about underreported depreciation costs, which can mislead investors. To fund the capital expenditure required to replace these miners, companies issue large amounts of shares, leading to significant dilution for existing shareholders.
The conversation also touches on the potential use of stranded energy for Bitcoin mining but expresses concerns about its scarcity as energy demand grows. St. Angelo compares this to the gold mining industry, where inflation caused by government actions impacts production costs. He argues that the high depreciation rate and underreporting of these costs in the Bitcoin mining industry could lead to significant financial challenges.
Marathon and Riot's claims about not needing to issue further shares for growth remain uncertain. Steve expresses concerns regarding Bitcoin's energy consumption compared to gold mining and its unsustainability due to the need for continuous miner replacement. Despite his criticism of Bitcoin, he acknowledges that some investors are avid supporters. He emphasizes physical metals like gold as a higher quality collateral due to their durability and lack of ongoing energy consumption.
Additionally, Steve discusses trends in Gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) inflows and outflows between Western countries and Asia, particularly China. While there have been significant net outflows from Western Gold ETFs for several years, Eastern countries like China have experienced substantial increases in their Gold ETFs due to central banks' large-scale gold purchases. The West's potential shift towards real assets like gold is suggested, given the risks associated with US Treasuries and money market accounts. However, acquiring gold with potentially devalued dollars presents a challenge for Western investors.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Steve discusses Bitcoin mining's rapid hardware depreciation, its impact on profitability, and sustainability concerns.
- Marathon and Riot's Bitcoin mining operations face significant underreported depreciation costs.
- Gold ETF trends: Eastern countries' surge in gold purchases versus Western net outflows.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:44 - Economics of BTC Mining?
4:10 - Mining Economics & Charts
13:30 - Hash Rates & New Hardware
17:07 - Share Dilution Solutions
19:34 - Underperformance & CAP-Ex
25:30 - All-In Costs & Mining
27:56 - Electricity Consumption
30:40 - End to End Depreciation
37:17 - Bitcoin Value & Time
38:35 - Comparing Mining Industries
41:37 - Gold Mining Total Costs
44:08 - Bitcoin Vs. Gold
48:30 - Chinese Gold ETF Flows
53:10 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReport
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI "Energy Returned On Invested" stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.
Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles on some of the top precious metals and financial websites.
You can find many of Steve's articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-Klare-Blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, PMBull, Deviantinvestor, PMBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.
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Robert Bryce: How the Green Promise is Making the West Poorer
In a not-to-be-missed episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest, Robert Bryce. Robert is an author, journalist, film producer, and public speaker.
Together, they delve into energy issues as Bryce voices his concerns over the fragility of the electric grid and the potential consequences of underestimating the value of a reliable energy supply. He recounts personal experiences with power disruptions and highlights significant contrasts between developed countries' energy abundance and challenges faced in places like South Africa and Beirut. The discussion centers on the 2021 Texas blackout, which shed light on renewable energy's role during the crisis and its limitations when needed most. Bryce underscores the danger of making the electric grid overly reliant on non-base load power. He advocates for recognizing natural gas's crucial role in securing energy stability during inclement weather. He also criticizes initiatives like Michael Bloomberg's Beyond Carbon Campaign, as they could potentially worsen the grid's vulnerability and threaten national energy security.
Robert raises concerns about inaccurate information and analysis regarding the energy landscape, specifically concerning hydrogen being misrepresented as a renewable resource by certain media outlets. He laments the negative impact of these misleading narratives on public understanding and decision-making processes. They also discuss challenges of the hydrogen fuel cycle and why it's more of a transportation carrier system than an energy source.
Robert discusses how modern energy policy is regressive in nature and its outsized impact on poverty and the wealth gap. He argues that these policies, including those related to climate change and electric vehicles, increase electricity costs disproportionately for low-income and middle-class households despite Democrats' advocacy for the public's welfare. Robert believes that energy affordability should be a bipartisan concern due to its critical role in the overall economy. He also criticizes the media's portrayal of the global energy transition, pointing out that developing countries like China and India are not adhering to the same goals as the West, focusing instead on building coal power plants to meet their immediate energy needs.
Robert advocates for pragmatism and a clear-eyed approach to energy production and consumption. He shares his skepticism towards renewable energy's low power density sources, such as wind and solar, and champions high power density sources like natural gas and nuclear. Robert also criticizes the corporatism surrounding renewable energy development and emphasizes the importance of understanding the realities of energy needs in light of increasing demand from developing countries.
Lastly, they explore the challenges of rapidly transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) from a fossil fuel-based system. Despite promises, EVs are not yet capable of replacing oil as a critical commodity for commerce due to the enormous energy consumption in the U.S. transportation sector. The limitations and challenges of batteries, including their energy density, material intensity, and dependence on Chinese supply chains, are discussed. The Biden administration's energy policies are criticized for making the auto sector dependent on components from overseas while stifling the development of oil and coal-based power sources. Financial losses incurred by EV manufacturers like Ford and Rivian are highlighted, questioning the rationality and pragmatism of current industrial and energy policies.
Robert encourages people to become informed on these topics and to explain the situation to friends and family. It's important for people to understand the world's reliance on energy and why it's crucial to humanity.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Taking Energy for Granted
3:15 - Texas Blackouts - Causes
5:13 - GRID Stability & NatGas
7:03 - Media Accuracy & Bias
11:33 - EROI & Alternatives
14:50 - Fuel Cell Technology
16:03 - Energy Policy & Poverty
19:18 - Energy "Transitions" Charts
22:33 - Germany Coal Use
25:09 - Climate is a Concern
27:18 - Subsidies & Tax Credits
33:44 - EVs and Real Impacts
41:00 - Electric Motorcycles
41:52 - The 10000$ Question
44:47 - Commodities & Debasement
51:45 - Peak Oil Thoughts
55:05 - Efficiencies & Plastic
58:48 - Incentives & Nuclear
1:04:15 - Educate Yourself
1:07:02 - JuiceTheSeries & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/pwrhungry
Website https://juicetheseries.com
Website: http://powerhungrypodcast.com/
Website: https://robertbryce.substack.com
Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/robertbryce
Robert Bryce is a Texas-based author, journalist, film producer, and podcaster. The host of the Power Hungry Podcast, Bryce has been writing about energy, power, innovation, and politics for more than 30 years. His articles have appeared in a myriad of publications including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Forbes, Time, Austin Chronicle, and Sydney Morning Herald. His sixth book, A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations, was published in 2020 by PublicAffairs. He is also the producer of a feature-length documentary film: Juice: How Electricity Explains the World, which is available on iTunes, Amazon Prime, and numerous other streaming platforms. He lives in Austin with his wife, Lorin, who is an art teacher, photographer, and master potter.
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Adrian Day: Closing the Gap - Gold Prices, Mining Stocks and When that Disconnect Closes
Tom welcomes back Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management to discuss the business aspects of the mining industry.
Adrian stresses the importance of understanding a company's financial situation beyond initial disappointments, using Barrick Gold as an example of a company with a history of optimistic production estimates leading to missed targets but effectively managing these issues. He emphasizes the significance of cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for evaluating mining companies' profitability and efficiency.
The conversation touches upon the challenges faced by mining operations, such as equipment failure, geopolitical risks, maturing mines, and hurdles common to every operation. Fortuna is used as an example of a company whose significant zinc production should be considered in evaluating its revenue distribution among different metals.
Adrian discusses the disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, attributing it to gold's strong performance amidst central banks and Chinese investors seeking safe havens and the broad stock market's strength. Despite potential risks, such as a pause or reduction in buying by central banks and a negative macroeconomic environment, Adrian highlights the opportunity presented by undervalued gold stocks.
The speaker also touches upon exploration expenditures and their importance in discovering new deposits despite the increasing difficulty of finding them. In his investment strategy, Adrian emphasizes investing in senior miners and major royalty companies during the current market cycle due to their undervalued status and likelihood to move first when the gold sector takes off.
The conversation concludes with a discussion on economic stress in financial systems caused by excessive debt accumulated during periods of ultra-low interest rates, with maturing low-interest loans causing strain for households and corporations between 2024 and 2026. Adrian emphasizes the undervaluation of gold mining companies considering gold prices and their margins.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:16 - Miners & Missed Targets
6:43 - All-In-Costs Metrics
9:47 - Production Misses
14:39 - Risks & Juridiction
18:50 - Valuing Poly Deposits
20:55 - Gold Price & Miners
26:17 - Closing The Gap?
30:19 - Mergers & Timing Cycles
33:16 - Companies & Exploration
36:12 - Portfolio Strategies
39:37 - Royalty & Streaming
42:16 - Low Premiums on Metals
46:20 - Silver & Sentiment
47:47 - OTC Purchases & Reports
50:28 - Consumers & Metrics
53:00 - Biggest Stress Points
57:30 - Long-Err-Term Bonds?
1:02:48 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The financial situation of mining companies, even those with initial disappointments, should be thoroughly understood for long-term investment opportunities.
- Barrick Gold serves as an example of managing production misses effectively.
- Cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs are crucial for evaluating mining companies' profitability and efficiency.
- Various factors that have led to a disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, presenting opportunity for undervalued gold stocks.
Guest Links:
Website: https://adrianday.com/
Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.
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Robert Sinn: China has Changed the Global Gold Game
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Robert Sinn to share his background in precious metals, junior mining, and biotech investing. Robert discusses his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis through his father's experiences at coin shows and investments. The conversation later focuses on the Federal Reserve's recent announcement of tapering quantitative tightening and its potential impact on market positioning, emphasizing fiscal dominance and potential softer data suggesting a possible negative non-farm payroll print.
Sinn further explores the Fed's shift in inflation targeting, proposing that it might adopt a new, unannounced inflation target above 2%, around 3%. He explains that markets have accepted the Fed's decision not to cut rates as frequently as anticipated, but anticipate at least one more rate cut this year. Parallels are drawn between the late 1970s and the current situation regarding government spending policies and inflation trends.
The discussion then shifts towards energy investments, with Sinn emphasizing uranium and natural gas as crucial areas due to their baseload power generation capabilities and affordability. He acknowledges the transition towards cleaner energy but argues that it will take considerable time for this shift to fully materialize. Sinn holds stocks in both oil companies and renewable energy sectors, adopting a long-term perspective.
Theys explore differences in debt structures between China and the U.S., their implications on markets, and strategies for investing in gold. The conversation shifts to Japan's debt ownership versus the world owning U.S. debt. This leads to a discussion about China's debt structure, which sees the government act as the backstop for all debt within their economy.
Robert then delves into the Fed's influence on markets and its ability to impact financial conditions without changing interest rates. This interview concludes with an emphasis on gold investing, stressing the significance of global data, especially from China, when analyzing gold market trends. Various strategies are suggested for investors looking to stay in the gold market during volatile periods. Robert discusses the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and focusing on the structural bull market trends.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:53 - Background & Metals
3:25 - Juniors & Biotech
5:29 - Fed Reactions
10:02 - Fed Inflation Targets
11:36 - Market Reactions
13:25 - 1970s Parallels
16:55 - Energy Investments
20:00 - Seasonality in Biotech
21:22 - War Headlines & Gold
23:12 - Gold A New Era?
26:49 - A Tectonic Shift
28:34 - China Vs. U.S. Debt
30:43 - Fed Rate Clown Show
34:18 - Trader Positioning
37:39 - Bull & Staying Invested
40:43 - Portfolio Structuring
46:00 - Rules For Juniors
49:50 - New Discoveries
53:30 - Lessons & Danger Signs
59:40 - Go Long Yoga Pants
1:00:41 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Roberts background in precious metals and his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis.
- The Fed's potential shift in inflation targeting: new unannounced target above 2%, around 3%.
- Energy investments: uranium, natural gas, baseload power, affordability, and long-term perspective.
- Strategies for holding on during volatile bull markets.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CEOTechnician
Substack: https://robertsinn.substack.com
CEO.CA: https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV_3gUkg2hbl-Fni4XxNb_Q
Robert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession.
Across his extensive career Robert has acted as a market participant, commentator and trader performing dozens of site visits, CEO interviews and generating a wealth of research spanning multiple market cycles.
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Don Durrett: The End of America's Hegemony
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Don Durrett, an experienced author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss gold prices and the economic implications. Durrett believes an imminent hard economic landing will boost his bullish stance on gold. In March 2023, gold reached new highs above $2050, while silver showed significant gains. However, miners have not followed suit.
Durrett considers the present economic climate different from previous periods due to the Federal Reserve's reduced ability to revive the economy. He highlights that while the US economy grew and used debt in the 1990s, it eventually balanced its budget. However, since then, the US economy has reportedly been declining for approximately 25 years, leading to significant global shifts like countries abandoning US bonds and equities and increasing interest in gold as a reserve currency.
Japan's bond and currency struggles could potentially trigger a crisis due to their substantial US treasury holdings. Durrett discusses the potential impact of Asian countries purchasing gold and the importance of oil purchases in gold-importing countries like Japan and China.
Don expresses bearish views on the stock market and bullish predictions for silver prices due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts like those seen with the Hunt Brothers in the past.
Don shares his perspective on gold miners using the HUI index to identify buying and selling opportunities. He considers anything below $250 on the HUI cheap, with levels between $200 and $225 being the buy zone. Opportunities for cheaper stocks extend from $225 to $250. However, as the HUI approaches $300, fewer cheap stocks become available. He anticipates the gold miners' bull market hasn't started yet but expects it to resume in the next couple of months and predicts a potential dip in gold and silver prices before the significant uptrend begins. The summer may not be as uneventful this year due to potential rapid market movements once risk-on sentiment shifts to risk-off.
Don has been successful with mid-tier producers some of which have seen substantial growth through acquisitions. He also discusses his investment strategy, holding stocks amidst potential economic downturns, diversification through various investments such as silver, crypto, and physical preparation by selling to the top. He also mentions the unsustainability of constant wars due to increasing budget deficits, implying that peace may prevail as America retreats from its aggressive role on the global stage.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:42 - Article & Gold ATH
4:25 - Rates, Risks & Spending
18:37 - Japanese Bond Markets
23:40 - C.B. Gold Buying
27:27 - Gold Price Predictions
31:34 - Silver Expectations
37:50 - Hunt Brothers 2.0?
43:23 - ETF Metal Flows
48:07 - Miners Bull Market?
51:22 - Summer Doldrums?
54:30 - Wall Street Interest?
1:01:22 - Miners Risk Vs. Return
1:10:00 - Stocks & Great Taking?
1:15:10 - Rapid Changes Coming
1:21:22 - Optimism & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Don Durrett believes an economic downturn will boost gold prices; gold & silver reached new highs in March 2023, but miners lagged behind.
- Bearish on stocks, bullish on silver due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts.
- America's aggressive role on the global stage unsustainable due to budget deficits, peace may prevail.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrett
Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com/
Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrial
Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/
Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241
Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articles
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
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Jonathan Davis: Riding Out the Next Crisis - An Opportune Time to HODL Gold & Silver
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, economist and wealth advisor Jonathan Davis once again joins host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the theme of inflation and its implications for the current economic era. Davis argues that we have transitioned from a disinflationary era lasting over 40 years into one characterized by financial repression, which he defines as higher inflation. Tracing this shift back to the post-World War II era when debt levels were unsustainable, Davis contends that recent financial crises were not caused by COVID but rather by 'shenanigans' in financial markets. With interest rates reaching historic lows by 2020, Davis predicts that inflation for the next generation will be between 5% and 10%, and interest rates will significantly increase from past decade levels. This transition to financial repression is a response to politicians, central bankers, and bankers' desire to maintain inflation rather than risk deflation.
The conversation also touches upon China's economic shift from manufacturing to consumer industries and property development, expressing concern over the large number of unsold homes in China despite continued commodity demand. Mr. Davis discusses the historical perspective of asset classes, emphasizing substantial returns from stocks, bonds, and property over recent decades but anticipates declining value as interest rates rise. He advocates investing in commodities as a long-term strategy.
Jonathan then discusses the current state of the housing market, despite higher interest rates and the end of fixed-rate mortgages, there hasn't been a significant impact on the housing market yet due to continued employment and low mortgage rates. He also touches upon commercial real estate, suggesting businesses have been able to mitigate costs by subletting unused space and private equity firms delaying effects of the market downturn.
Jonathan shares insights on oil prices' correlation with inflation, anticipating a rebound and potentially reaching $200 within the next few years due to insufficient production relative to economic growth, causing significant drops in energy stocks. He encourages staying informed, adapting investment strategies, remaining cautious, and avoiding excessive greed.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - The End of an Era
13:05 - Real Rates & Growth
20:10 - De-China-Fication
23:15 - Lending & Global Growth
27:32 - Real Vs. Nominal Returns
29:00 - Dow Long-Term Chart
30:49 - 10-Year Treasury Chart
36:24 - Housing Markets & Rates
41:34 - Commercial Real Estate
45:10 - Uranium Thoughts
51:20 - Miners & Juniors
55:34 - Crude Oil & Energy
1:00:53 - Commodities & HODL Gold
1:05:57 - Eastern Metal Buying
1:08:30 - Maintaining Objectivity
1:10:44 - Uranium & Wrap Up
Talking Points from This Episode
- Davis argues for a new era of financial repression, characterized by higher inflation, due to unsustainable debt levels since the post-World War II era.
- Significant price increases for uranium, gold, and silver miners, and global energy in the next one to three years due to low supply and increasing demand.
- Politicians and central bankers will maintain inflation rather than risk deflation, which would benefit consumers but negatively impact the wealthy.
Guest Links:
Website: https://jonathandaviswm.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/j0nathandavis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/boomsbusts
Jonathan Davis BA MBA FCII FPFS, Chartered Financial Planner, is the Wealth Adviser. He is a former Chairman of the London Region of The Institute of Financial Planning (now Chartered Wealth Management Institute).
Jonathan has been delivering wealth advice since 1987. Johnathan established the Jonathan Davis Wealth Management in January 2007, where they provide a niche Wealth Management advising a small number of clients. He established this firm in January 2007.
He has over 1000 appearances in the press, radio, and TV. He is often asked to comment on financial issues.
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Lyn Alden: Navigating the Conundrum - When Both of the Fed's Paths Lead to Inflation
Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show.
Lyn discusses abundant and scarce things in investing, focusing on the era of fiscal dominance that has led to bonds becoming abundant. This is due to large budget deficits and private debt being transferred to the public sector. The implications include higher average fiscal-driven inflation and potential impact on asset prices and tax receipts.
The Federal Reserve's ability to perfectly tune the economy to avoid recession for the next decade is questioned. In emerging markets, stocks may rise in local currency but decrease in hard money terms during recessions. The U.S., however, is experiencing fiscal dominance where public debt exceeds GDP, making it harder to fight inflation and slow down borrowing. While interest rates can help make a country's currency attractive or reduce borrowing demand, raising interest rates results in ballooning expenses, offsetting disinflationary forces. The commercial real estate sector is heavily impacted, but travel companies, seniors, and wealthy individuals may benefit from higher interest rates.
Lyn discusses the SVB bank crisis in 2023, suggesting that the Fed might prioritize saving banks or the Treasury market over controlling inflation, limiting monetary policy flexibility. The potential outcomes of interest rate cuts include growth and demand for commodities but less effectiveness due to fiscal dominance. She emphasizes energy exposure as a hedge against inflationary pressures.
Investment strategies include owning assets related to dense forms of energy in the energy sector, focusing on demographics, aging workforces, and understanding China's labor supply and demand. Alternative investment portfolios like the permanent portfolio and IV portfolio deviate from the traditional 60-40 stock-bond split by including gold and commodities for diversification.
The development of Bitcoin ETFs is seen as inevitable due to its size and liquidity, but risks include hacks and confiscations. Developed countries generally accept Bitcoin as a store of value while regulating its use as a medium of exchange. The importance of building tools to make Bitcoin more efficient for users is emphasized.
Lyn's book, "Broken Money," discusses global financial system issues, with countries relying on the US dollar facing negative consequences if it devalues or if the US manipulates currencies. Running large structural trade deficits is necessary but comes with negative effects such as decreased export competitiveness and de-industrialization. The shift towards more neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin in response to unreliable US dollars is emphasized, along with considering multiple variables and being data-dependent.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:33 - Bonds, Rates, & Inflation
8:42 - Fed and Recessions
13:30 - Fiscal Dominance & Stability
19:28 - Contrasting the 1940s
23:06 - Feds Blinks at Bank Crisis
25:54 - Deficits & Debt Rollover
29:54 - Rate Cuts & Outcomes
31:52 - Easing and Hard Assets
33:14 - Energy Exposure?
37:40 - Demographics & Demand
41:26 - China & Manufacturing
44:42 - Labor & Underinvestment
47:20 - Skills & Semiconductors
50:00 - Portfolio & Reallocating
53:20 - Bitcoin ETFs & Impacts?
56:06 - Capital Controls & Walls
59:23 - Dollar & Broken Money
1:03:57 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Fiscal dominance, inflation, and why the Fed is cornered.
- Understanding multiple forces in macroeconomics and the Fed being data-dependent.
- A Shift to Neutral Assets in a World of Fiscal Dominance and Unreliable Currencies
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact
Website: https://www.lynalden.com/
Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, "Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance." Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you're new to investing or experienced, there's a lot there for you.
Lyn has a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering and a master's degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility.
She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time's Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor's Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts. She is also a regular contributor to Seeking Alpha, FEDweek, and Elliot Wave Trader.
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Axel Merk: How Funding for the Junior Mining Sector is Under Threat
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, who manages investments worth $1.2 billion in gold and related assets. They discuss the ASA closed-end fund, which invests in precious metals mining, processing, or exploration companies, and is unique due to its longer-term focus compared to ETFs. Merk took over management in 2019 and transformed it into an investment vehicle for junior mining companies. This fund helps small development and exploration firms by providing capital during funding rounds and increasing their share prices, making them more attractive to larger investors.
Merk also talks about the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies on gold mining and equities during economic downturns or periods of easing financial conditions. He shares his past predictions for a possible recession in 2023 but acknowledges recessions are unpredictable. Merk believes that gold miners provide value over the long term, despite risks, and stresses the importance of risk assessment.
Axel discusses Saba Capital Management's ongoing attempts to gain control over ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited. If successful, this could negatively impact the mining industry due to potential cost-cutting measures or changes to the fund's mandate. Despite expressing support for ASA as a fund manager, Axel encourages constructive dialogue between all parties. Axel highlights ASA's unique features that make it difficult for activists like Saba to achieve their goals easily. The future implications include continued engagement with Saba or potential liquidation if they gain control, and the importance of shareholder votes in the outcome. Investors are encouraged to stay informed and vote in proxy contests.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - ASA Closed End Fund
3:42 - Funding for Juniors
10:43 - The Monetary Environment
15:26 - Fed & Distorted Data
17:57 - Recent Moves in Gold
20:50 - Closed Vs. Open Funds
25:08 - Strategic Investments
26:42 - ASA Board Concerns
32:16 - SABA Contested Proxy
35:10 - A Call to Shareholders
37:30 - Friday Apr 26 Vote
41:06 - Future for the Fund?
44:33 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AxelMerk
Website: https://www.merkinvestments.com/
Blog Post: https://www.merkinvestments.com/insights-and-reports/2024-03-18
Website: https://asaltd.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/axelmerk/detail/recent-activity/
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/4ebpcaew
Axel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds.
Founder of the firm bearing his name, Merk is an expert on macro trends. He is a sought-after speaker, contributor, and author; Axel Merk's book, Sustainable Wealth, describes how the greater economic universe works, how it might affect your finances, and how to manage those finances to seek financial stability. Axel Merk holds a B.A. in Economics (magna cum laude) and an M.Sc. in Computer Science from Brown University.
Axel Merk founded Merk Investments in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to California. He has grown Merk Investments into an investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.
Axel lives in the San Francisco Bay Area with his wife and their four children. Furthermore, he is a marathon runner and a private pilot.
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Christopher Aaron: We are Experiencing Precious Metals History
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron to discuss the markets and current geopolitical instability. Although gold prices saw a spike due to recent events between Iran and Israel, they gave back most of the gains shortly after. Christopher emphasizes the importance of considering historical data and long-term trends when analyzing gold price movements.
Chris discusses how the Dow Jones and gold have been trading in lockstep due to the preoccupation with Fed policy. They note that during past bull markets, average investors shifted funds from stock indexes into gold or silver when they underperformed. However, the current cycle shows a flat Dow to gold ratio for the last eight years, suggesting mainstream investors are yet to enter the precious metals sector. The potential implications of this situation and its impact on future market performance are emphasized.
Despite gold ETFs losing gold holdings as mainstream investors sell their shares even during price surges, they predict gold should come back to retest its recent highs before experiencing a multi-year trend of significant new highs. Christopher shares his insights from the 2008 financial crisis and how he now prioritizes price data over fundamental analysis. They also touch upon historical gold price trends, including how gold always retests breakout points after significant price increases.
Christopher discusses the potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to shift from its hawkish stance being a global or regional war. He suggests that higher interest rates may lead to higher commodity prices and emphasizes the need for markets to reconsider their current beliefs. The conversation then shifts to silver, which has broken its downward trend but faces significant resistance at $30 per ounce. Christopher is skeptical about silver's potential return as a full-time monetary metal in perpetuity but acknowledges the possibility during periods of financial instability.
Chris emphasizes the importance of being aware and prepared amidst current turbulent times while also encouraging listeners not to stop living their lives.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:00 - Geopolitical Tensions
4:37 - Sentiment & ATH Gold
9:15 - Dow Vs. Gold
12:00 - Dow Gold Ratio
15:52 - Opportunity?
18:20 - Breakouts & Retests
23:14 - Fundamentals & China
27:00 - Catalysts & Israel
32:50 - Inflation Narratives
38:30 - Fed Shift?
40:33 - Silver & Resistance
44:45 - Monetary Silver?
45:54 - Miners & Resources
51:16 - Jurisdictional Risks
55:57 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Importance of historical data for analyzing gold price movements amid current geopolitical instability; Gold ETFs losing holdings despite recent surges
- Markets ignoring fundamental supply and demand in favor of Fed policy and the potential return of mainstream investors to precious metals sector.
- Predicting gold retesting highs before significant new price trends.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGold
Website: https://igoldadvisor.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.
Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit.
Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business, with advanced Department of Defense training in intelligence analysis.
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Ravi Sood: All the Monetary Alarms are Deafening
Tom welcomes back Ravi Sood to the show to discuss the many changes in the economy and mining industry. Ravi touches upon various topics related to the global financial system, gold prices, and the impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. He discusses the lack of significant changes in the financial system since the 1970s and the potential role of Bitcoin in challenging traditional monetary systems. He also highlights the uncertainty and potential risks in the current economic situation due to the pandemic and other factors. The conversation also delves into the importance of investing in physical commodities like gold and other minerals, as well as the role of technology in driving demand for these resources.
Furthermore, they explore the effects of a strong US dollar on the economy and suggests alternative policies to improve trade balance. The discussion also covers the challenges in regulating cryptocurrencies and the potential impact of CBDCs. The gold market is analyzed, with the author noting signs of optimism amidst a perceived bubble, and the mining industry's financial issues are also discussed, along with the interest in renewable energy transition and the cyclical nature of commodities business.
Throughout the interview, Ravi emphasizes the need for a better understanding of the financial system and the importance of making informed decisions based on current economic conditions and potential future changes.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
3:30 - Gold, Bias & Sound Money
10:17 - Global Can Kicking
17:42 - A No Win Scenario?
20:00 - US Commodity Demand
22:28 - Feds Levers & Control Risk
26:44 - Bitcoin, Banks, & ETFs
33:50 - Commercial Banks & Economy
36:05 - Unhedged Mining
44:52 - Gold Highs & Reality
49:05 - Mining Industry Health
56:17 - Energy & GDP Correlation
59:00 - 3 Phases of New Energy
1:02:20 - Green Energy Storage
1:05:04 - Commodities & Capital
1:07:18 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The financial system has not seen a major shift since the 1970s, with concerns about sustainability of the existing monetary systems.
- Physical commodities like gold and other minerals could help the United States address economic challenges by creating jobs and reducing reliance on foreign currency.
- The gold market exhibits signs of optimism for an eventual end to its current bubble, with factors such as increased production and lower interest rates affecting its future.
Guest Links:
Website: https://golcondagold.com
Website: https://evrec.energy
Ravi Sood is Chairman of Golconda Gold and an experienced financier focused on emerging markets. Mr. Sood was the founder and former CEO of Navina Asset Management, a Toronto-based investment firm that was acquired by a major financial institution. Mr. Sood also serves as a director of several companies including Blockchain Power Trust, Feronia Inc., and Eve & Co. Previously Mr. Sood was a director of ICC Labs (acquired) and Elgin Mining (acquired).
Ravi Sood has a bachelor's degree in Mathematics from the University of Waterloo.
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Tony Greer: There is No Bubble In Gold
Tom welcomes back Tony Greer from the Morning Navigator to delve into the various market trends and investment strategies. Greer, who is bullish on gold, S&P, industrial miners, and uranium, while bearish on bonds, shares his perspective on the current economic climate. He references the volatile year of 1994, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation, and believes that if similar circumstances arise again, the Fed will respond with rate cuts, leading to a bullish stock market environment. The commodity sector, particularly natural resources and housing, has seen a significant shift from tech markets, which remain mixed or flat. Greer attributes this trend to potential geopolitical tensions and increasing ISM manufacturing figures, possibly pointing towards the early stages of a World War III scenario.
Greer discusses his bullish stance on gold due to central bank buying and physical demand. While some may view the recent gold rally as a head fake, he remains committed to the precious metal. He believes that declining total gold ETF holdings could indicate less speculation and increased interest in physical gold ownership. The speakers also touch upon the potential implications of increasing national debt on the US dollar and the possibility that fiat currencies, including the US dollar, will decline against gold. They ponder if the current trends in oil, copper, and other commodities represent a cyclical shift from underinvestment to materials necessary for economic growth.
Throughout their discussion, they emphasize the importance of staying informed about market changes and adjusting investment strategies accordingly. Greer suggests repositioning portfolios towards natural resources and industrial sectors, despite slower growth compared to tech stocks, as these markets may have more significant impacts with smaller amounts of capital. The conversation highlights potential long-term consequences of current economic trends, including national debt levels and the role of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Bullish Stocks & Gold
9:23 - Fed Games & Inflation
15:12 - Gold Rally & Disorder
17:15 - Gold Vs. Silver
18:12 - Metals & Frustration
20:30 - Capital Rotation
23:17 - Gold ETF Declines
24:42 - Metal Investing
26:20 - The WHO Quagmire
28:44 - Confidence in Media
30:18 - Exponential Debt
31:49 - Oil & Copper Cycles
33:52 - Peak Frustration
36:40 - Uranium Fundamentals
39:13 - Time to Pay Attention
42:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Tony is bullish on both gold, miners and the S&P 500.
- Declining Gold ETF Holdings could signal a shift from paper to physical.
- Tony discusses the importance of paying careful attention to your portfolio this year.
Guest Links:
Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgmacro
Website: https://tgmacro.com/
E-Mail: tony@tgmacro.com
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.
In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.
He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.
He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.
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David Brady: The Economy is in Shambles, But Metals Are Still Heading Higher
Tom welcomes back David Brady to discuss future market movements based on Fed decisions and current geopolitics. David suggests that investors should invest in physical silver and gold as a hedge against inflation, stock market crashes, and cyber attacks. He believes that the pullback from recent highs will be shallow but may require a big event to drive it. David mentions that some people are suggesting $100 silver is a slam dunk and that high beta miners are going to go through the stratosphere. David emphasizes that investing in these assets can be expensive, so people should pick an amount they feel comfortable with and buy as much as possible.
This episode also highlights the current equity market trends and how gold and silver are performing. David explains that the recent increase in the price of gold and silver is not due to a specific event but rather a collective reaction to the loss of confidence in the economy. He suggests that the price of gold and silver may continue to rise, as more people seek safety in these assets during times of uncertainty.
The interview also touches on the potential impact of the 2020 US presidential election on the value of gold and silver. David believes that the current economic and political environment may lead to a stock market crash and a subsequent decline in the value of assets like gold and silver, which would benefit their investors. However, he also mentions other potential risks facing the economy, such as the banking system, wars, and the loss of confidence in government institutions.
David believes that investors have good reason to be bullish on the current precious metal market conditions and expects continued growth in the coming years. However, he also acknowledges the potential risks facing the economy and the political landscape, which could lead to a significant decline in the broader equity markets.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:53 - Gold Train All Aboard?
5:06 - Rate Cuts & Dollar
10:19 - Demand & Confidence
12:40 - COT Data & Metrics
19:22 - Stock Market Thoughts
24:12 - Silver Vs. Gold?
29:12 - Portfolio Positioning
34:48 - Valuations & Silver
39:42 - Confiscation & The East
43:00 - Housing & Employment
45:10 - Gloom, Doom, & Popcorn
50:28 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The recent increase in gold and silver prices is likely driven by a collective reaction to economic uncertainty, not a specific event.
- Investing in physical silver and gold can provide a hedge against inflation, stock market crashes, and other black swan events.
- A pullback from recent highs may be shallow but requires a big event to drive it.
Substack: https://fipestreport.substack.com/
Fund Website: https://4779Capital.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotrader
Sprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
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