CONFIDENTIAL: WikiLeaks Document PROVES U.S. Knew NATO Expansion Would Cause Russia/Ukraine War

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NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA’S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

(C) Summary. Following a muted first reaction to Ukraine’s intent to seek a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the Bucharest summit (ref A), Foreign Minister Lavrov and other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition, stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains “an emotional and neuralgic” issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene. Additionally, the GOR and experts continue to claim that Ukrainian NATO membership would have a major impact on Russia’s defense industry, Russian-Ukrainian family connections, and bilateral relations generally. In Georgia, the GOR fears continued instability and “provocative acts” in the separatist regions.

End summary.

Date: February 1st, 2008 – https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html